It's just beginning to warm up, the province is thinking spring — and there's good news in the first flood forecast of the year.

There is very little chance of flooding in southern Manitoba this spring, according to provincial flood forecaster Alf Warkentin.

"We do have a pretty low soil moisture level from a dry fall. Actually, [it] got pretty dry already and after the middle of July, so plants used up a lot of water and left the soil on the dry side, and on top of that, we have a below-average snow cover," Warkentin said Friday.

Warkentin does not anticipate the Red or Assiniboine rivers will overflow their banks.

The flood potential is somewhat higher in the Duck Mountain area of west-central Manitoba, he said.

"It looks like the runoff in that area will be above average again but not as great as it was in the last two years, so there may be some localized flooding there, but it doesn't look too serious. Again, all this is based on normal weather conditions from now on."

Warkentin is "moderately concerned" about the Porcupine Hills, south of The Pas, and a large area from Thompson to Churchill.

Of course, all this could change if there are storms that dump significant amounts of snow or rain in the next few months, he said.