Calgary's housing market is expected to see fewer new builds, fewer sales, and lower prices by the end of this year, followed by little to no growth in any of those measures for at least a year, if not two.
That's according to the latest forecast from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, released today, which paints a picture of stagnation across the prairies, but particularly in Alberta.
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"The economic and housing market outlook for the Prairie region continues to be adversely impacted by low commodity prices," CMHC regional economist Lai Sing Louie said in a release.
"Lower oil prices have created economic uncertainty in Alberta and Saskatchewan. This will hold back growth in housing starts in both of these provinces in 2015 and 2016 before improving economic conditions provide some gains in 2017."
Down in 2015
Calgary's average home-sale price is expected to dip to $451,000 by the end of 2015, down 2.1 per cent from the year before.
The number of home sales, meanwhile, is expected to plunge 27.7 per cent, totalling just 24,300 in 2015.
And housing starts in the city this year are only expected to reach 11,900, a decline of 30.5 per cent from the year before.
2016 and beyond
Housing starts are projected to fall even further, dropping to about 10,000 in 2016 and reaching just 10,200 in 2017, CMHC forecasts.
Home sales, meanwhile, are expected to edge up slightly to 24,700 in 2016 and reach 25,200 in 2017.
Sales prices are projected to be flat next year year before increasing again in 2017 to an average of $463,000, which is on par with 2014 levels.