B.C. isolated from economic storm, say analysts
Last Updated: Tuesday, January 22, 2008 | 1:03 PM PT
CBC News
The economic storm that has battered the U.S. isn't necessarily headed in B.C.'s direction soon, according to some financial analysts and market watchers in the province.
On Tuesday morning the main Canadian index, the S&P/TSX composite, was up 337 points to 12,467 by 11 a.m. ET after it had tumbled 605 points on Monday, while the U.S. market opened with a nosedive after being closed on Monday for a holiday.
Mutual funds and other investments are taking a hit, but B.C.'s economy is relatively protected, say economists.
"We have this commodity and construction boom of epic proportions which is keeping the western provinces essentially at full employment," Aron Gampel, the deputy chief economist of Scotiabank told CBC on Monday.
But that doesn't mean the economic woes south of the border won't dampen consumer confidence here, said Gampel.
"We are, after all, being bombarded with news of the U.S. meltdown on a daily basis," said Gampel.
"You cannot pick up a newspaper or a magazine or listen to your iPod or TV or radio without hearing the R word and the problems in the U.S. and potentially the global economy," said Gampel.
SFU business professor Lindsay Meredith predicts some British Columbians will start belt-tightening.
"Consumers who are not as well off, consumers who are exposed to the market and taking a beating, seniors who are very price sensitive — all those kinds of people may well react negatively to this tough economic news. And yes, they may very well keep their money in their jeans."
But Meredith sees no black clouds on B.C.'s economic horizon. And he predicts consumers — especially cross-border shoppers — might actually benefit if retailers in the U.S. begin slashing prices.
Consumers could also get some relief after the Bank of Canada cut its key lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point to four per cent just before markets opened on Tuesday, and hinted that more rate cuts are likely.
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