Poll Tracker: 2017 British Columbia election
Vote and seat projections by Éric Grenier for the May 9, 2017 election
The following are vote and seat projections for the British Columbia election on May 9, 2017. These numbers were last updated on May 8, 2017 and reflect the best estimates as of May 8, 2017, the last day of polls included in the model.
Check back here for updates to the B.C. Poll Tracker throughout the election campaign.
The vote projection shows the average of all public polling conducted in the province, weighted by sample size, date and the track record of the polling firm, after adjusting for the number of candidates being put forward by parties other than the B.C. Liberals, New Democrats and Greens.
The high-to-low range reflects 80 per cent of all potential projected outcomes, based on past discrepancies between polls and election results. The minimum-to-maximum range reflects 95 per cent of all potential outcomes.
The seat projection shows the number of seats each party should be able to win at current levels of support, with the potential outcomes also expressed at the 80 and 95 per cent confidence intervals.
The charts above show how the vote and seat projections have evolved since the beginning of the election campaign. The seat projection trend chart includes the high-to-low range (80 per cent confidence) and the number of seats required to form a majority government (44).
The chart below shows the probability of each party winning a majority or minority government if the election were held today, based on 10,000 simulations that take into account past polling errors.
The regional vote and seat projections show the projections for each region of the province, as well as the high-to-low seat projection ranges (80 per cent confidence).
The projections are subject to the margins of error of the polls included in the model, as well as the inherent limitations of the projection model in making perfect estimations of real-world dynamics.
The table below lists the provincial polls currently included in the projection model, as well as the weight each poll carries.
- Poll / Media shows the pollster that conducted the survey, and the media outlet (if applicable) that either commissioned the poll or first reported on it. Links to the polls can be found below the table.
- Weight (%) refers to the weight the poll carries in the aggregation.
- Method refers to the mode of contact for the survey. Interactive voice response (IVR) polls feature automated calls, where survey-takers respond via the keypad of their telephone. Polls marked as TEL are those conducted over the telephone by live interviewers. Online polls (NET) are conducted via internet panels.
- Dates lists the field dates of the survey.
- Sample refers to the number of total respondents interviewed, including undecideds.
- Margin of error lists the equivalent margin of error of the poll (assuming a probabilistic sample) in percentage points at the 95 per cent confidence interval (19 times out of 20).
- Mainstreet Research: Feb. 18-19 / Feb. 25-26 / Mar. 4-5 / Mar. 11-12 / Mar. 18-20 / Mar. 25-27 / Apr. 1-3 / Apr. 6-10 / Apr. 12-14 / Apr. 20-22 / Apr. 29-May 1 / May 5-6
- Insights West: Feb. 23-26 / Apr. 5-8 / May 5-8
- Ipsos: Apr. 7-9 / Apr. 27-30 / May 4-6
- Forum Research: Apr. 5-8 / Apr. 28-29
- Justason Market Intelligence: Apr. 18-20 / Apr. 25-28 / May 1-2 / May 1-7
- Angus Reid Institute: Apr. 28-May 3
- Innovative Research Group: Apr. 20-23 / Apr. 25-30 / Apr.28-May 1