U.S. retail sales barely increase during spring
The Associated Press
Posted: Jun 13, 2012 4:35 PM ET
Last Updated: Jun 13, 2012 4:33 PM ET
Two-year-old Alexis Osgood tries on a pair of sneakers with her mother Caitlin watching in May in Braintree, Mass. U.S. retail sales declined in April and May, pulled down by a sharp drop in gas prices. (Stephan Savoia/Associated Press)
Related
Related Stories
Cheaper gasoline has yet to cause U.S. consumers to spend enough on other goods to boost the slumping American economy.
Americans barely increased their spending at retail businesses this spring, leading economists to predict slower economic growth in the April-June quarter.
But the news from a spate of government data Thursday wasn't all bad. Consumers spent more in May on cars, appliances and furniture — big purchases that help drive growth. Businesses continued to restock this spring at a healthy pace.
And wholesale prices outside of gasoline costs remain stable, which means consumers can expect inflation to stay mild.
If gas prices stay low, Americans are likely to spend more freely this summer on other goods, from autos and furniture to electronics and vacations, that fuel economic growth. Gasoline purchases tend to provide less benefit for the U.S. economy because some of the money goes to oil-exporting nations.
"The continued fall in gasoline prices should support consumption by freeing up cash to be spent on other items," said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.
Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics agreed. "The drop in gas prices means summer spending will accelerate," he said.
Retail sales fell 0.2 per cent in May and April, the Commerce Department said. It was the first back-to-back decline in two years. But overall sales were pulled down by a 2.2 per cent decline in gasoline station sales, reflecting the lower prices.
Excluding volatile gas station sales, retail sales grew just 0.1 per cent in May and dipped slightly in April.
'The drop in gas prices means summer spending will accelerate.'—Ian Shepherdson, High Frequency Economics
Consumers reduced spending in May at building supply stores, such as Home Depot, and general merchandise stores, a category that includes Wal-Mart and Target.
Auto sales rose solidly, one of the few positives in the report. Consumers also spent more on electronics, clothing and furniture.
Much more spending is needed to lift to an economy that has limped along since the Great Recession ended three years ago. Hiring has slowed sharply this spring. And unemployment remains high at 8.2 per cent.
Wage increases are trailing inflation. And Europe's debt crisis has kept investors and companies on edge.
"All these things are making people feel uncomfortable about spending," Christopher said. "It is obvious that consumers are starting to hold back in the second quarter."
Christopher expects the economy to grow at an annual pace of 1.8 per cent in the April-June quarter, just below the first quarter's annual pace. That's roughly in line with other economists' forecasts.
The one major positive development in the past two months is that gas prices have tumbled.
The producer price index, a measure of wholesale prices, dropped 1 per cent in May, the Labor Department said in a separate report. That's the biggest decline since July 2009. It reflected a 9 per cent fall in wholesale gas prices.
Consumers are already feeling less pinched by gas prices. The average national price for a gallon of gas was $3.54 Wednesday — 40 cents cheaper than the year's peak price in early April.
Modest wholesale inflation reduces pressure on manufacturers and retailers to raise prices. That helps keep consumer prices stable, which boosts buying power and drives growth. Consumer spending makes up about 70 per cent of economic activity.
Fed could move to stimulate
Weaker consumer spending and mild inflation could give the Federal Reserve room to hold interest rates at record-low levels and potentially take other steps to boost the economy. Still, most economists don't expect the Fed to take further steps at its policy meeting next week.
Some of the weakness in retail sales may be payback for stronger spending at the start of the year. A warm winter encouraged some homeowners to get a head start on remodeling and landscaping projects that normally occur in spring.
Still, economists worry that consumer spending may further weaken if hiring and pay doesn't pick up.
Workers' average hourly earnings rose just 1.7 per cent in the 12 months that ended in May. That was below the pace of inflation during that period.
And job growth has slowed since the start of the year. Employers added 226,000 jobs on average during the first three months of the year. In April and May, they added an average of only 73,000.
"It looks like concerns over slowing job growth, a drop in equity markets over the past three months, and softer income growth are making U.S. consumers think twice about their purchases," said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
Share Tools
Top News Headlines
- Obesity now recognized as a disease
- The American Medical Association has voted to recognize obesity as a disease, while doctors in Canada say they also treat it as such. more »
- B.C. First Nation sets fires to save bison
- A First Nation band is reviving the age-old practice of controlled burning in order to improve the health of forests and restore the population of the wood bison in a corner of northeastern B.C. more »
- 1 in 8 bird species threatened with extinction
- One in eight bird species worldwide faces the threat of extinction, according to a report released by Birdlife International. more »
- Canada buys rare War of 1812 collection for $573K
- The government of Canada was the winning bidder for a large collection of letters, maps and other papers that once belonged to Sir John Sherbrooke, the lieutenant-governor of Nova Scotia who conquered Maine for the British during the War of 1812. The collection sold for $573,000 at auction in London. more »
Must Watch
Latest Business Headlines
- Orascom withdraws bid for control of Wind Mobile
- Orascom Telecom Holding has announced it is pulling back its bid to buy out Wind Mobile Canada founder and CEO Anthony Lacavera and acquire full control of the company, in which it already holds a 65 per cent interest. more »
- Poloz urges 'stability and patience' in 1st public speech
- In his first public remarks since being named governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz said the central bank will keep its focus trained squarely on keeping inflation in check. more »
- World's wealthy richer than ever
- The investable wealth of the world's richest people reached a record high of $46.2 trillion US in 2012, a report by RBC Wealth Management and the consulting firm Capgemini has found. more »
- Talking Keystone, Redford says Canada and U.S. share energy values
- Alberta Premier Alison Redford says the United States and Canada share political and environmental values and must work together to become energy independent of those who do not. more »
Lang & O'Leary Exchange
Markets
| Index | Last Trade | Change |
|---|---|---|
| TSX COMPOSITE | 12268.29 | -99.17 |
| DOW | 15112.19 | -206.04 |
| NASDAQ | 3443.20 | -38.98 |
| SP 500 | 1628.93 | -22.88 |
| TSX-VENTURE | 924.25 | -5.74 |
The data on this site is informational only and may be delayed; it is not intended as trading or investment advice and you should not rely on it as such.
- Sopranos star James Gandolfini dies in Italy
- Wearing a mask at a riot is now a crime
- Dozens of children seized from Manitoba Mennonite community
- B.C. teacher duct-taped students' mouths
- B.C. First Nation sets fires to save bison
- Richmond widow racks up $1,800 hospital parking bill
- Obesity now recognized as a disease
- Bob Rae quits as MP in 'very emotional' decision
- Hail, flash floods hit southeast Alberta

