analysisCan America regain its AAA rating?
By Marc Davis, Investopedia.com, CBC News
Posted: Aug 22, 2011 3:24 PM ET
Last Updated: Aug 22, 2011 4:55 PM ET
Related
Is U.S. credit permanently tarnished by the recent downgrade of its debt by Standard & Poor's? Can the U.S. ever regain its once perfect AAA rating? If history is any guide, the answer to the first question is no. And the answer to the second question is yes.
Many of the world's nations once enjoyed AAA ratings, then lost that rating because of domestic economic problems, but eventually regained it. There's no reason to prevent the U.S. from repeating what these other nations have accomplished. Much has to be done, however, before S&P might be inclined to re-evaluate its opinion of U.S. debt.
The two other major ratings services, Moody's Investor Services and Fitch, have yet to downgrade U.S. debt from AAA. But both firms have warned that a downgrade may occur in the future, depending on economic conditions and how the U.S. government handles its staggering debt.
In almost every instance in which a nation recovered its AAA rating, economic problems were solved by cutting entitlement programs and benefits, and by raising taxes.
Canada reduced government spending by imposing wage freezes, cutting government and civil service programs, and reassigning certain national government expenses to provincial governments
About half of Denmark's deficit was reduced through increasing revenue — taxes.
Finland added a value added tax to reduce its deficit and devalued its currency to help it compete in global markets.
Besides cutting social benefits, Sweden also increased income and payroll taxes. A favourable exchange rate also helped increase exports.
Australia similarly consolidated its debt, and both cut expenses and raised revenues.
Cuts coming
The American Plan Members of the U.S. Congress are now debating the methods in a 12-member so-called bipartisan Super Committee by which its debt can be reduced and its AAA rating restored. The committee's mission is to suggest at least $1.2 trillion in budget cuts by this coming Thanksgiving, November 24. The most likely committee scenario, according to many veteran print and broadcast media reporters, is a list of recommendations split along political lines.
Despite the downgrade of American. debt, investors — individual, institutional and sovereign nation — have continued to buy U.S. Treasuries although fed chairman Ben Bernanke has promised there'll be no increase in yields for the next two years. So America continues to borrow as the national debt climbs relentlessly.
When the Fed chairman's moratorium on interest increases expires in 2013, America's economy may be on a major upswing, the country's national debt may be stabilized, under control and being reduced as government spending is cut and revenues increase. Under those circumstances, S&P may restore the nation's AAA rating as it has to the countries mentioned above. But as S&P has done in the past, it can also lower the nation's debt rating even further.
Share Tools
Top News Headlines
- Toronto mayor's brother says he never dealt drugs
- The brother of Toronto Mayor Rob Ford has vehemently denied allegations in Saturday's Globe and Mail that he was involved in the illicit drug trade in the 1980s. more »
- Hockey Canada votes to ban bodychecking in peewee hockey
- Hockey Canada's board of directors voted to eliminate bodychecking from peewee-level hockey on Saturday in Charlottetown. more »
- Neil Macdonald: How serious is Obama about curbing the drone surge?
- In a key speech this week, the U.S. president set out a host of supposed new safeguards for America's controversial practice of remote-controlled rough justice. But as Neil Macdonald writes, the underlying rationale for drone use has not fundamentally changed. more »
- Ontario man lost in Australian mountains has survival skills
- The sister of an Ontario man who disappeared in Australia's Snowy Mountains nearly two weeks ago says she remains hopeful he will be found, partly because of his training as a Canadian Forces reservist. more »
Must Watch
Latest Business Headlines
- Growing appetite for American whisky straining supply
- Fans of some American whiskies might soon be scrambling to find their favourite brand because of a seemingly insatiable demand for bourbon, rye and other styles of whisky that shows no sign of abating. more »
- Royal Bank pledges not to outsource jobs for cash savings
- Royal Bank has promised it will never outsource a Canadian job to a foreign worker solely to save money. more »
- Canada threatens retaliation over U.S. meat-labelling rules
- The federal government is threatening "retaliatory measures" against the United States in a dispute over meat-labelling rules that Ottawa and the World Trade Organization consider discriminatory. more »
- Canada ranks 3rd last in paid vacations
- Canada ranks third last among economically advanced countries in the amount of paid vacation time it guarantees its workers, a new U.S. study indicates. more »
Lang & O'Leary Exchange
Markets
| Index | Last Trade | Change |
|---|---|---|
| TSX COMPOSITE | 12667.22 | 9.13 |
| DOW | 15303.10 | 8.60 |
| NASDAQ | 3459.14 | -0.28 |
| SP 500 | 1649.60 | -0.91 |
| TSX-VENTURE | 948.32 | 6.27 |
The data on this site is informational only and may be delayed; it is not intended as trading or investment advice and you should not rely on it as such.
- Toronto mayor's brother says he never dealt drugs
- 3 more suspects arrested in slaying of U.K. soldier
- McDonald's CEO chastised by 9-year-old B.C. girl
- NYPD investigating Amanda Bynes sex assault allegations
- Dog snared on baited hooks near Vancouver's Grouse Grind trail
- Ontario man lost in Australian mountains has survival skills
- Retired police officer killed in Mexico remembered as animal lover
- Canadian mine giant Barrick fined a record $16.4M in Chile
- Black bear breaks into North Vancouver chicken coop


