Canadians less optimistic about economy
Economists view 2011 differently
Last Updated: Thursday, January 6, 2011 | 1:30 PM ET
CBC News
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Worries over the cost of living, the national debt and retirement savings have Canadians less optimistic about the state of the economy in 2011 than they were just a year ago, a survey suggests.
Canadians list worries over the cost of living as one of their top concerns for the economy in 2011. (Canadian Press) But top economists are having a hard time convincing Canadians that the country will actually see moderate growth this year.
"The perceptions don't reflect the fact that things have been getting better for now a year and a half," TD chief economist Craig Alexander told a gathering of the Economic Club of Canada in Toronto.
"There's no question that the recession is over, so how do you actually reconcile the poll results with what the economic forecasters are talking about?"
Pessimistic Canadians
Economists declared the recession had ended in mid-2009 and had managed six quarters of economic growth and recovered all of the jobs lost during the recession.
Still, Canadians don't feel as optimistic.
The poll conducted by Pollara for the Economic Club of Canada and released prior to the gathering Thursday suggests that 38 per cent of respondents believed that the Canadian economy would improve over the next year, compared with 54 per cent of those polled in December 2009. Also, some 20 per cent said the economy would worsen in 2011, compared with 14 per cent who felt that way one year ago.
Almost 30 per cent of respondents said the economy is in a state of moderate growth heading into 2011, compared with just 17 per cent last year. But concern over a severe recession occurring has dropped to 10 per cent from 17 per cent.
"Canadians were feeling overly bullish on economic recovery this time last year," said Michael Marzolini, chairman of POLLARA. "But clearly, these lofty expectations in Canada and around the world have not yet been met, and Canadians are now more measured in their feelings about the economy."
Cost of living
Among the major economic concerns of Canadians, 78 per cent cited the cost of living; 72 per cent noted the government deficit and national debt; 70 per cent listed having enough money to retire as their chief concern; 69 per cent said health-care costs were their No. 1 concern; 57 per cent responded with value of their investments; and 55 per cent marked their own family debt load as their top priority.
The online poll of 2,560 respondents was conducted between Dec. 15 and Dec. 15, 2010. The margin of error is 1.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Despite lesser optimism, Canadians are much more confident about the domestic economy than prospects elsewhere. Some 42 per cent of Canadians feel the U.S. economy will actually worsen in 2011, compared with only 19 per cent who feel it will improve. On a larger scale, 43 per cent of Canadians feel the global economy will worsen in the next year, while only 20 per cent expect the global economy to improve.
"Canadians are reflecting, rightly, that the job market isn't as good as it was when times were good and they say 'we're in recession' because of that, where economists say 'we're in recovery' because we're not as bad as we were during the recession," said CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld.
Canadians will get a first look at how the economy is faring when Statistics Canada issues its jobs report for December on Friday. Economists expect that the economy created another 20,000 jobs, on top of the 15,200 created during the previous month.
Canadians cite the cost of living, the federal debt and retirement savings as their top concerns for 2011, according to a poll conducted for the Economic Club of Canada. (Pollara)
(With files from Canadian Press)
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