Analysis
Debt picture not so bleak: BMO
Last Updated: Wednesday, December 15, 2010 | 8:22 AM ET
CBC News
Related
The cacophony of concern over rising Canadian debt levels is overshadowing other encouraging personal finance data, a prominent economist says.
Statistics Canada released data Monday showing that Canadian household debt has risen to 148 per cent of disposable income. The eye-popping figure is all the more alarming considering it's the first time since the 1990s that Canada's ratio has been higher than that of the U.S.
Alarm bells rang everywhere from the Bank of Canada to the Finance Department on Monday, and Canadians were urged to tighten their belts and prepare for a time of austerity.
But a closer look at the numbers indicates the picture might not be so bleak.
"The continued laser-like focus on debt overshadows the other half of the balance sheet," BMO chief economist Doug Porter said Monday.
Namely, Canadians are borrowing. But they're also saving, and they're worth more than they used to be.
The savings rate has averaged four per cent over the past year and is now below the U.S rate of 5.8 per cent. But Canada's rate is now more than double the level it was at during its all-time low in 2005.
And as Porter notes, Statistics Canada's rate of personal savings as a percentage of disposable income doesn't give the full picture of how much Canadians are actually saving.
The current rate narrowly looks at how much households are saving from current income but ignores unrealized capital gains as well as returns in tax-sheltered vehicles like RRSPs and tax-free savings accounts, Porter said.
A better measure might be to track the change in household financial assets as a share of income. It's much more volatile (prone to 50 per cent swings in both directions within the same year), but for the last five years, it has hovered at roughly double the published savings rate. And it's never gone below the conventional "savings rate" in the last 15 years.
Increasing assets
A closer inspection of the numbers Statistics Canada released Monday shows more reason for optimism.
Yes, the debt-to-income level has gone from around 100 per cent in 1990 to almost 150 per cent today (the orange line on the chart above). But assets — the green line (showing net worth as a percentage of income) — have gone up too: from 417 per cent to 610 per cent over that same period.
In layman's terms, "assets are again growing faster than debt in absolute terms," says Porter.
That suggests that the assets Canadians are buying are padding their net worth more than enough to offset the debt load they take on to buy some of them. And debt as a percentage of net worth (the blue line on the chart above) has remained relatively flat.
"While debt has risen to record heights, so, too, have financial assets due to a rebound in equities and an underlying rise in savings," Porter said.
The sum total of all stocks, bonds, cash, GICs, life insurance and pension assets, minus household debt, is a fairer picture of real savings, Porter says. That figure has recovered from recessionary lows to $2.7 trillion so far this year — which works out to $80,000 per Canadian, or 167 per cent of per capita GDP.
"Taking these factors into account … leads to the conclusion that household finances are not nearly as weakened as the dire headlines would suggest," said Porter.
Share Tools
Top News Headlines
- 2nd suspect in Tim Bosma murder case to plead not guilty
- The lawyer for Mark Smich says the Oakville, Ont., resident will plead not guilty to first-degree murder in the death of Tim Bosma, the Hamilton man who disappeared earlier this month after taking two men on a test drive of his truck. Smich was charged today, after Dellen Millard of Toronto was also charged with first-degree murder. more »
- 2 more arrests linked to hacking death of British soldier
- WARNING: This story contains graphic content. Two more people have been arrested by officers investigating the hacking death of a U.K. soldier in London, say British police. more »
- Neil Macdonald: Harper no Obama when it comes to dealing with scandals
- Beset by three so-called scandals at the moment, Barack Obama has been meeting his accusers and the press head on, Neil Macdonald writes. The same cannot be said for how Stephen Harper operates. more »
- Toronto Mayor Rob Ford fires chief of staff
- Toronto Mayor Rob Ford has parted ways with his chief of staff, the latest development in a tumultuous week at city hall where the pressure is growing for the mayor to comment on crack cocaine allegations raised by two media outlets. more »
Must Watch
Latest Business Headlines
- Vermont enacts 1st U.S. law against patent trolling
- Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin signed into law Wednesday a novel measure aimed at protecting companies from so-called patent trolling, the practice of making deceptive claims of patent infringement in the hopes of collecting licensing or settlement money. more »
- TSX, Dow recover after Nikkei loses 7%
- Financial markets around the world were roiled Thursday after Japanese stocks suffered their biggest slide since the country was hit by a devastating tsunami more than two years ago. more »
- EI claims trend lower for 5th straight month
- The number of people receiving regular Employment Insurance claims declined for the fifth consecutive month in March, dropping one per cent to 523,700. more »
- TD Bank profit up 2% to $1.7B
- TD Bank Group says it had $1.723 billion in net income in its second quarter, up nearly two per cent from a year earlier. more »
Lang & O'Leary Exchange
Markets
| Index | Last Trade | Change |
|---|---|---|
| TSX COMPOSITE | 12677.86 | -74.64 |
| DOW | 15317.09 | 9.92 |
| NASDAQ | 3456.81 | -6.49 |
| SP 500 | 1649.54 | -5.81 |
| TSX-VENTURE | 935.78 | -6.30 |
The data on this site is informational only and may be delayed; it is not intended as trading or investment advice and you should not rely on it as such.
- 2nd suspect in Tim Bosma murder case to plead not guilty
- 2 more arrests linked to hacking death of British soldier
- Chained-teen's mom wants man who pleaded guilty 'to suffer'
- How was the Mike Duffy report 'whitewashed?'
- Toronto Mayor Rob Ford fires chief of staff
- Neil Macdonald: Harper no Obama when it comes to dealing with scandals
- Vancouver man abandons Porsche on B.C. ferry
- B.C. teen saves pet dog in 'terrifying' cougar attack
- Mike Duffy's primary home not P.E.I., unedited Senate report says

