Flaherty says Page's predictions too pessimistic
Last Updated: Thursday, July 9, 2009 | 6:47 PM ET
CBC News
A prediction that Canada will add $156 billion in debt over the next five years and has a deficit that will be hard to erase without special measures is flawed and overly pessimistic, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said Thursday.
He was responding to the report by parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page, leaked early this week and formally released Wednesday.
In the report, Page said the deficit will still be $16.7 billion in the fiscal year 2013-14, and there will be a structural deficit — one that requires tax increases or spending cuts to address — of about $12 billion.
But the federal government has projected a surplus of $700 million for 2013-14 in its Jan. 27 budget. And it said when the federal stimulus spending ends, largely by 2011–12, "the budget balance will improve sharply starting in 2011–12, with a return to surplus in 2013–14."
Flaherty told reporters Thursday he doubts the government has a structural deficit. And he said Page's office is using old economic forecasts for its growth predictions.
"He's on the pessimistic side, and that does not reflect what we're seeing in the more positive view expressed by some of the international organizations like the IMF (International Monetary Fund)," he told reporters in a call from Brazil.
The IMF on Wednesday predicted Canada's growth would be 1.6 per cent next year. Page used a 2.2 per cent figure.
Flaherty has criticized Page before. In June, he said Page was "wrong" because his prediction about debt was based on too-pessimistic growth estimates.
With files from The Canadian PressShare Tools
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