In order to gauge ocean-bound trade, some economists keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index. (Wally Santana/Associated Press)If you have ever been caught out in a rainstorm with miles to travel, you know that sinking feeling — forlornly hoping for some sign that the downpour was slackening but realistically knowing you are going to get soaked.

Economy watchers these days are in the same situation, scanning the financial data for some hint that the worst recession since the Great Depression is starting to ease.

In less severe downturns, analysts looked at broad-ranging indicators, things like unemployment, new durable goods orders, maybe credit demand.

These days, economists are far less picky in the choice of tea leaves they read.

Experts parse the Institute of Supply Management's report on manufacturing prospects, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index or the Baltic Dry Index, or other figures for any hint concerning the economy's overall direction.

"While less followed and hyped than their more famous brethren, [obscure economic indicators] may nonetheless provide insight into certain sectors of the U.S. and global economies," wrote Daniel Gross, a business columnist for Newsweek in a 2003 article explaining the Baltic indicator.

Analysts are hoping that better financial figures will translate into more shopping in the real economy. (Paul Moseley/Associated Press)Business watchers are not necessarily grasping at straws in using these numbers.

Rummaging through these second-tier indicators, economists are finally getting some sense that the arrows are pointing up for the global economy.

"These developments may be an early indication that conditions are falling into place for real GDP to decline at a slower rate in the second quarter and to stabilize later this year. I want to emphasize that the high-frequency data are very noisy, and considerable uncertainty attends the near-term path of the economy. Still, I don't think it is premature to start to ponder the shape that a recovery — when it occurs — would be likely to take," said Donald Kohn, vice-chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaking to a Delaware audience in April.

Others are seeing the same signs.

"The gradual turn in trade provides another sign that the broader economy is moving away from the murky depths at the start of the year," said Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in a recent economic commentary.

He was referring to Canada's trade surplus, which expanded in March.

Always the naysayers

But, some are not as quick to uncork the champagne.

After all, the United States' economy shrank an eye-popping 6.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2009. In Canada, the economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2008 to the tune of 3.4 per cent.

In fact, some economy watchers say all this trolling of second-tier statistics is akin to analysts whistling past the graveyard.

"Most of these signs of optimism are financial indicators, not what I would call real indicators … I don't see any sign of a rebound yet," said Jim Stanford, an economist with the Canadian Auto Workers.

The well-known and the obscure

Still, here are some prominent — and some not so prominent — indicators and what they are showing about the economy:

GDP — This number essentially measures a country's or a province's income. The problem is the figure shows where an economy has been, not where it is going.

Current reading: Awful. Canada and the U.S. will need more quarters before the arrows on GDP start heading north

Unemployment — The CAW's Stanford likes this figure because a low jobless rate often translates into more consumer demand.

Current reading: Weak. Canada's jobless rate is better than the rate in the United States. But both countries have levels that are nearly twice as high as in the summer of 2008.

Exports — Again, perhaps a bit obvious in that strong growth means businesses are selling more widgets to foreigners. But, the level of exports can be a better indicator of future expansion of facilities than employment growth.

Current reading: March's figures were down 1.8 per cent compared to February, worse when you consider the United States, where Canadian exports were off 4.1 per cent versus February and 24 per cent versus March 2008.

Imports — Often during economic recoveries, companies and consumers will start buying imported goods earlier than they begin selling more exports. Thus, analysts expect the level of what Canadians buy from other countries to rise in advance of growing GDP.

Current reading: Little positive here as March's imports were down 4.4 per cent compared to the previous month, and off 9.3 per cent versus March 2008.

Conference Board's consumer confidence index — The private sector think tank produces a group of its own indicators, including the well-followed consumer confidence number. The index is a survey of 5,000 households with the pollsters asking people how they see their near-term financial future and whether they will be out of work anytime soon.

Current reading: May's reading of 54.9 blasted past analysts' expectations and sent stocks higher as investors started seeing a consumer spending recovery in the cards.

Case-Shiller Index — The housing price index, named after two of the economists who developed the measurement, is a way to look at housing prices in different regions of the U.S. The Case-Shiller indicator correlates with higher commodity prices and also, in a rising market, shows growing household net worth.

Current reading: The C-S housing marker was down 19 per cent for the first three months of 2009, the biggest drop in the index's history. More troubling, March's prices were down 18.7 per cent, a sign that the decline is not flattening.

Baltic Dry Index — The oddly-named aquatic index — odd because the Baltic Exchange is actually in London, England — is a phone survey of the price of shipping a commodity a certain distance. Analysts like the figure because small changes in the underlying demand for transportation services moves the index by a disproportionately larger amount.

Current reading: May's index cracked the 3,000 point-level for the first time since October. For the month, the dry index is up 77 per cent versus February's readings.

Euler Hermes Global Insolvency Index — The division of insurer Allianz calculates corporate bankruptcies around the globe, an indicator that economic tea leaf readers use to graph a country's trajectory.

Current reading: The corporate insolvency index predicted a rise in 2009 bankruptcies by 25 per cent, roughly the same casualty rate as occurred in 2008.

Wandering-eye index — The good folks at Illicit Encounters.com, a London, England site which calls itself a "married dating site", noticed spikes in e-mail activity if economic prospects headed up or down, but little dalliance interest in a sideways economy.

Current reading: "We have seen another influx of bankers and financial workers from the city (we can tell this from the location and profession they state). Crazy times," said Rosie Freeman Jones, a spokesman for the site.

Latvian hooker index — While not calculated with the rigorous detail as other indicators, capital markets blogger John Hempton keeps a keen eye on the cost of the world's oldest profession in one of the globe's toughest economies.

Current reading: Hempton says Latvia's poor exchange rate is killing the prostitution business in the Baltic country and could be an indication of a debt default.