The number of Americans jetting on U.S. airlines will drop by 7.8 per cent in 2009 because of the global recession, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration projected this week.

The usually-sunny FAA said 626 million Americans will fly the country's skies during the current 12 months, down from 679 million in 2008.

The FAA, which is responsible for regulating the country's domestic airlines, previously had predicted that the country's carriers would still post passenger increases despite the world economic slowdown.

Such bravado was absent from the organization's latest forecast.

America's major airlines expect to see big drops in passenger traffic in 2009. (LM Otero/Associated Press)

"Aviation finds itself in economic waters that no one would have predicted a decade ago," said the FAA's acting administrator, Lynne Osmus, in the forecast.

FAA's tough future

The FAA now predicts that the major airlines will see passenger traffic drop by 8.8 per cent in the year, larger than the overall forecast. Regional carriers will fare slightly better, enduring a forecast contraction of 4.5 per cent in 2009.

Interestingly, cargo traffic is expected to tumble by the smallest amount of the major categories in 2009 — 2.8 per cent. Such business usually is the most responsive to economic conditions as shippers often have cheaper alternatives.

As symptomatic of the FAA's new-found pessimism, the group now expects the U.S. air sector to move one billion passengers by 2021. That means the number of American flyers will increase by 60 per cent in the 12 years.

In 2008, the FAA figured the domestic air industry would pass the one billion passenger target in 2016, implying growth of almost 50 per cent but over a shorter time — six years.

Still, the American airline industry will have to cover some ground if it is to reach the FAA's 2009 outlook.

ATAA's bleak present

The Air Transport Association of America, which represents the sector, said passenger revenue was down 19 per cent in February, compared to the same month one year earlier.

In addition, February's stumble was the fourth consecutive month in which air travel fell.

Worse still, cargo traffic was chopped by 21 per cent in January. That dismal showing followed two previous months in which 17 per cent less cargo was shipped in each.

At least, however, there was one sliver lining in the dark clouds of the sector's skies.

Giovanni Bisignani, the director-general of the International Air Transport Association, said the global airline sector is expected to produce 7.8 per cent fewer greenhouse gas emissions in 2009.

The international industry group predicts that 5.7 per cent fewer passengers will be sitting in 6.7 per cent fewer seats. The reduced capacity means less fuel getting burned in the atmosphere, Bisignani said.