Global economic decline will continue in 2009, OECD predicts
Last Updated: Thursday, November 13, 2008 | 10:50 AM ET
CBC News
Related
Internal Links
Video
- Jeannie Lee reports: The developed world is in recession: OECD (Runs: 2:23)
- Play: Real Media »
- Play: QuickTime »
The world's most developed economies have slid further into a recession that will continue into 2009, according to an international forecast released on Thursday.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has issued a forecast predicting that the world's most developed economies are going to continue to contract over the next year.
"The OECD area economy appears to have entered recession," said Jorgen Elmeskov, director of the policy studies branch and economics department.
Gross domestic product is likely to decline by 0.3 per cent in 2009 for its 30 member countries, said the Paris-based organization.
It is the first time the organization has seen an aggregate shrinkage in its members' economies since it started keeping records in 1970.
The organization said the U.S. economy is likely to post 0.9 per cent negative growth in 2009, Japan will contract by 0.1 per cent and European economies by 0.5 per cent.
Uncertain projections leading into 2009 "point to a protracted downturn," with recovery not likely before the second half of next year, Elmeskov said.
The organization issued its last forecast in June. At that time, it was predicting a growth of 1.7 per cent in 2009.
Full impact not yet seen
"Even more worrying, the full impact of the financial crisis still has to unfold," said Carsten Brzeski, an analyst with ING Financial Markets. "If you think today's numbers are already bad, just wait for the next quarter."
The OECD's projections assume that the financial stress since the banking crisis exploded in mid-September will prove to be "short-lived" but be followed by an "extended period of financial headwinds" through the end of next year, with conditions then returning to near normal.
But emerging hazards such as further failures of financial institutions, emerging market economies being hit harder by the downturn in global trade and foreign investors turning even more risk shy could make the recovery take even longer, according to the forecast.
Germany enters recession
The German government also released new data on Thursday that showed the country's economy recorded negative growth for the second consecutive quarter, officially pushing it into a recession.
Germany's Federal Statistical Office reported that gross domestic product of the country, which has Europe's biggest economy, contracted by 0.5 per cent in the July-September period.
The economy had also declined for the first time since 2004 when it recorded a 0.4 per cent contraction in the second quarter.
A technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
"We are going to have to face up to a very difficult and long-lasting economic crisis," Germany's deputy economy minister, Walther Otremba, told Reuters.
Government measures should be "timely and temporary and designed to so as to ensure maximum effectiveness," while establishing a framework to ensure budget responsibility in the long term, Elmeskov said.
The International Energy Agency also cut its global oil demand forecasts on Thursday due to the recession causing slowing demand.
The IEA is forecasting the global demand for oil will average 86.2 million barrels a day for 2008 and 86.5 million per day in 2009.
It's a cut of 330,000 barrels for 2008 and 670,000 barrels from estimates it had released earlier in the year.
With files from the Associated Press and ReutersShare Tools
Top News Headlines
- Greece passes new austerity deal amid rioting
- Greek lawmakers have approved harsh new austerity measures demanded by bailout creditors to save the debt-crippled nation from bankruptcy, after riots in Athens and other cities left stores looted and burned and more than 120 people hurt. more »
- Quebec town 'heartbroken' after killing of woman, sisters
- A small Quebec town is in mourning Sunday after a Quebec man was charged with killing his nieces and his mother, who were found dead in their family home. more »
- Houston autopsy results withheld by police
- Whitney Houston was found in a hotel bathtub but it'll take weeks to determine precisely how she died, a Los Angeles coroner's official says. more »
- Musicians who died before their time
- The growing list of musicians who have died young. more »
Latest Business Headlines
- Air Canada reaches tentative deal with dispatchers
- Air Canada has reached a tentative collective agreement with the Canadian Airline Dispatchers Association, representing the airline's 74 flight dispatchers. more »
- Old Age Security untouched until 2020, Flaherty says
- Finance Minister Jim Flaherty says Canadians should expect no changes to Old Age Security benefits before 2020 or 2025, and details about reform would be outlined over more than one budget. more »
- CAW questions Caterpillar takeover of Electro-Motive
- The head of the Canadian Auto Workers is suggesting Caterpillar Inc. may not have followed foreign takeover rules in its 2010 purchase of the London, Ont., locomotive plant it has since shut down. more »
- Canada's trade surplus doubles in December
- Statistics Canada says exports rose 4.5 per cent in December and imports edged up 0.8 per cent, pushing the country's trade surplus with the rest of the world to $2.7 billion from $1.2 billion in November. more »
Lang & O'Leary Exchange
Markets
| Index | Last Trade | Change |
|---|---|---|
| TSX COMPOSITE | 12389.42 | 0 |
| DOW | 12801.23 | 0 |
| NASDAQ | 2903.88 | 0 |
| SP 500 | 1342.64 | 0 |
| NYSE COMPOSITE | 7992.05 | 0 |
| AMEX | 2417.98 | 0 |
| TSX-VENTURE | 1653.55 | 0 |
The data on this site is informational only and may be delayed; it is not intended as trading or investment advice and you should not rely on it as such.
Business Features
- Adele wins best album, best record Grammys
- Houston autopsy results withheld by police
- Quebec town 'heartbroken' after killing of woman, sisters
- Northern lights viewed from space
- Greece passes new austerity deal amid rioting
- Pop queen Whitney Houston dies at 48
- Manitoba man dies after falling off moving SUV
- Doors blocked in fatal Manitoba trailer blaze
- Former Stanley Park petting zoo goats feared slaughtered

