MONEY
Canadian dollar
The pluses and minuses of a low loonie
Last Updated: Friday, October 24, 2008 | 10:19 AM ET
By Philip Demont CBC News
Related
IN DEPTH: Economy
Finance explained
- Interest rates
- (June 2008)
- GDP – The measure and mismeasure of the economy
- (June 2008)
- Inflation FAQs
- (June 2008)
- Inflation rises from the dead
- (July 2008)
- Inflation: Managing expectations
- (July 2008)
- Fair trade: An alternative economic model
- (April 2007)
- Microcredit lending
- (November 2006)
Interactives and maps
- Where the jobs are
- (June 2008)
- Where are prices rising fastest?
- (June 2008)
- History of the Canadian dollar
- (November 2007)
- The road to TSX 15,000
- (May 2008)
- Earnings and income (from 2006 Census)
- (2008)
Features
- Economic disconnect: Why the numbers don't seem to add up
- (June 2008)
- Three towns: How they're coping with forestry cutbacks
- Red Rock, Ont.; Stephenville, Nflnd.; Quesnel, B.C. (July 2008)
- The end of interest rate cuts?
- Inflation worries trump weak growth (June 2008)
- Should Canada scrap the penny?
- (April 2008)
- Minimum wage laws – The state of pay in Canada
- (February 2007)
- Where are the visitors? – Tourism to Canada is way down
- (February 2007)
- Retail sales: Keeping customers happy
- (June 2007)
- The debate over Canada's poverty line
- (November 2007)
- Outsourcing: Contracting out becomes big business
- (March 2006)
- Branding for dollars: the growth of corporate naming rights
- (February 2007)
- India's economic miracle: A confident country's expanding prosperity
- (August 2007)
- China's economic miracle: The high price of progress
- (April 2006)
- Gift cards
- (December 2008)
- Income gap grows: The have-nots get left behind
- (May 2008)
- Big price gap still exists between Canadian, U.S. goods
- (June 2008)
People
- Q&A: Billionaire George Soros
- Bubbles building in financial markets (June 2008)
- Profile: Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke
- (March 2008)
- Profile: Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney
- (June 2008)
- Q&A: Commodity analyst Dennis Gartman
- Sees the Canadian dollar staying above parity (May 2008)
Companies & sectors
- Auto industry; the shrinking Big Three
- (June 2008)
- Forestry
- (January 2007)
- Canada’s airlines – Risky business
- (June 2008)
- Who owns who in the Canadian media
- (March 2008)
- Bank profits: How Canada's big banks really make their money
- (September 2006)
- Nortel: Canada's closely-watched tech giant
- (June 2008)
- Mackenzie Valley pipeline
- (March 2007)
- Timeline: Petro-Canada
- (September 2004)
- Profile: G-8
- (July 2006)
- Canada's diamond rush
- (September 2007)
- Wal-Mart
- (June 2005)
- Canadian National
- (2003)
- Hudson's Bay Company
- (July 2008)
- Timeline: Enron
- (October 2006)
- The Fraser Institute
- (October 2004)
CBC Archives:
- The Auto Pact
- Archives
- Bombardier – The snowmobile legacy
- Archives
- Stranger than fiction – The Bre-X gold scandal
- Archives
- Eaton’s – A Canadian institution
- Archives
- Turbulent skies – The Air Canada story
- Archives
In the history of a nation's currency, 88 days is a blink of an eye.
That is how many days in the past 268 trading sessions that Canada's loonie has been worth more than the American dollar.
As oil prices slide and the global financial crisis accelerates, however, the worth of the Canuck buck is more likely to tumble to the decade low of 61.79 cents US on Sept. 21, 2001, rather than return to its 21st-century high of $1.103 on July 11, 2007.
Right now, those gold-coloured coins that Canadians carry in their pockets or pocketbooks are worth only 78.48 cents US. And forecasters, such as BMO Capital Markets, now predict that the currency will hover around 85.3 cents throughout 2009.
For many, a Canadian buck worth as much as an American buck is a source of national pride.
Other economic players, however, might be cheering a sliding loonie.
"The true fair value of the Canadian dollar should be about 80 cents," the Canadian Auto Workers said in a publication released during the recent federal election campaign.
Thumbs up
Here's who might be happy with the dollar's tumble:
- Anyone who sells anything outside the country
Canada's trade has suffered because of the sustained high value of the dollar compared to the American currency.
Manufacturers that export are helped by a lower dollar. (CBC) The country's merchandise trade balance — what we sell outside Canada versus what we buy from other countries — improved to $5.8 billion in August but mainly because the amount Canada imported fell at a faster rate than its exports.
Export sales were down 1.6 per cent and were down 6.6 per cent in volume terms in August compared to the same time one year earlier, according to TD Economics.
The Canadian Auto Workers and other groups have complained that the high value of the national currency hampers the ability of Canadian companies, especially goods exporters, to sell products in other countries.
Now, with a slumping dollar, the price of these manufacturing and service companies' products should drop, making Canadian goods more attractive to overseas buyers.
- Any American looking to go shopping in Vancouver, Toronto or some other border community
The reverse logic works in this case.
A low loonie means Americans can buy more Canadian baubles and trinkets when they come north.
That fact makes vacation destinations in this country once again attractive to Americans who might not be able to afford an overseas trip.
So far, U.S. tourism into Canada has suffered because of the rising Canadian buck.
Tourism spots could get a boost from the shrinking currency. (CBC) When comparing the April-to-June period with the first three months of 2008, Canadians increased the amount of money spent travelling within Canada by 0.9 per cent. Meanwhile, non-residents cut their tourism to Canada slightly, by 0.1 per cent.
Worse, assuming a Canadian dollar at $1.02 US, the Ministry of Tourism in Ontario predicts there will be 1.46 million fewer visits to the province by Americans in 2009 than in 2008.
A lower-value loonie would boost the number of Canadians travelling within the country's borders and the number of Americans looking for a bit of R&R in this country.
At 78 cents, you can bet there are a bunch of tourism operators, especially as Vancouver gets ready for the 2010 Olympic Games, who are quietly high-fiving each other these days.
- Any Canadian company looking for a foreign buyer
As the economy slows, so too do the financial prospects for Canadian firms. One solution for these owners is to find a buyer for the company.
The lower Canadian dollar reduces the cost of a takeover for an American corporation or vulture funds. They would need to spend fewer U.S. dollars to gobble up a company on the Canadian side of the border.
Unfortunately for sellers in this country, however, U.S. buyers face the same economic downturn, hampering their financial ability to purchase any Canadian concern.
- U.S. buyers of Canadian-denominated financial assets
This group benefits from a lower dollar, but with a caveat.
Some Americans might be willing to buy Canadian bonds and other debt instruments if they believed Canada's currency might rise in the near future.
Then, for example, a bond worth $100 Cdn would translate more U.S. dollars as the Canadian currency rose and the instrument was cashed in.
That is where BMO's forecast of 85 cents comes in handy. If true, any U.S. purchaser of Canadian financial assets get a nine per cent gain just from the rise in the loonie.
Thumbs down
But a lower dollar has its own set of losers.
- The country's manufacturers (in a backhanded way)
Canada's goods-makers could be losers and winners in the same currency depreciation.
Historically, Canada's manufacturers import large amounts of capital equipment from other countries, mainly the United States. Canadian producers need these state-of-the-art machines to make their products more efficiently.
Without this latest generation gear, Canadian companies risk losing the productivity race to foreign firms as they fight for sales in various markets.
A slumping dollar just made that foreign equipment — machines that Canada's manufacturers have little choice but to buy — more costly.
- Any company paying expenses in U.S. dollars and getting cash in Canadian dollars
Many mining and other commodity companies have foreign operations in countries where they use American dollars to pay their expenses, such as wages.
The dropping dollar hurts the Toronto Blue Jays' finances. (Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press) When they sell their products, however, the cash comes in as Canadian dollars.
In this scenario, the sagging loonie will boost the cost line without helping the sales lines.
A sport team, say the Toronto Blue Jays baseball team, pays its players in U.S. dollars but receives a vast chunk of its money in Canadian currency. The depreciating dollar should make the Jays less profitable.
- Any company that receives parts from U.S. factories and sells the final product in Canada
Research In Motion enhances its blackberry by incorporating products and ideas from other companies. Those firms that supply RIM from the United States just became more expensive for the Canadian company as the dollar depreciates.
RIM is not alone. Many firms in Canada received parts and services from American suppliers.
Unfortunately for this crowd, the cost of receiving these supplies rises with the loonie's fall, a factor that could boost the price of the final product to consumers or reduce the profit margin for the companies.
Share Tools
Top News Headlines
- Tories move to curb 'bogus' refugees
- The Conservative government is poised to change the refugee system yet again in an attempt to deter what it considers "bogus" claimants, CBC News has learned. more »
- Children of immigrants challenged at school, home
- By 2016, foreign-born youth and Canadian-born youth from immigrant families will make up a quarter of the country's population, according to predictions by the Canadian Council on Social Development. As their numbers grow, more attention is being paid to their successes and failures. more »
- 2 NDP MPs back final Commons vote to kill gun registry
- Two NDP MPs broke party ranks to vote with the government in the final House of Commons vote on scrapping the long-gun registry. more »
- B.C. house party trial hears from tearful teens
- Two teenagers cried as they testified at the trial of a B.C. woman who was charged after a teen died while her son was hosting a party at her house in 2008. more »
Latest Business Headlines
- Nortel collapse linked to hacking attack
- A former systems security adviser to Nortel Networks says he has no doubt that extensive cyber attacks on the technology company contributed to its downfall. more »
- Competition Bureau investigating global banks
- Canada's Competition Bureau is investigating allegations that certain global banks or financial brokerage firms conspired to manipulate interest rate derivatives for more than three years. more »
- Canadian housing market cools in January
- The housing resale market retreated in January following a strong December finish to 2011, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. more »
- U.S. Fed divided on new bond buying
- The U.S. Federal Reserve isn't about to launch another bond-buying program to boost the economy — at least not anytime soon. more »
Lang & O'Leary Exchange
Markets
| Index | Last Trade | Change |
|---|---|---|
| TSX COMPOSITE | 12362.03 | 7.56 |
| DOW | 12780.95 | -97.33 |
| NASDAQ | 2915.83 | -16 |
| SP 500 | 1343.23 | -7.27 |
| NYSE COMPOSITE | 7998.65 | -30.96 |
| AMEX | 2419.99 | -9.07 |
| TSX-VENTURE | 1633.58 | 3.55 |
The data on this site is informational only and may be delayed; it is not intended as trading or investment advice and you should not rely on it as such.
Business Features
- Drummond report on Ontario calls for cutbacks
- Barefoot girl's icy trek not blamed on babysitter
- 2 NDP MPs back final Commons vote to kill gun registry
- Immigrants the proudest Canadians, poll suggests
- Honduras prison fire kills hundreds
- Bodyguard hired for bully victim in Fredericton
- Canadian housing market cools in January
- Legalize pot, say former B.C. attorneys general
- Russians' abusive plane tirade to cost them $19K

