MONEY
Canadian dollar
The pluses and minuses of a low loonie
Last Updated: Friday, October 24, 2008 | 10:19 AM ET
By Philip Demont CBC News
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In the history of a nation's currency, 88 days is a blink of an eye.
That is how many days in the past 268 trading sessions that Canada's loonie has been worth more than the American dollar.
As oil prices slide and the global financial crisis accelerates, however, the worth of the Canuck buck is more likely to tumble to the decade low of 61.79 cents US on Sept. 21, 2001, rather than return to its 21st-century high of $1.103 on July 11, 2007.
Right now, those gold-coloured coins that Canadians carry in their pockets or pocketbooks are worth only 78.48 cents US. And forecasters, such as BMO Capital Markets, now predict that the currency will hover around 85.3 cents throughout 2009.
For many, a Canadian buck worth as much as an American buck is a source of national pride.
Other economic players, however, might be cheering a sliding loonie.
"The true fair value of the Canadian dollar should be about 80 cents," the Canadian Auto Workers said in a publication released during the recent federal election campaign.
Thumbs up
Here's who might be happy with the dollar's tumble:
- Anyone who sells anything outside the country
Canada's trade has suffered because of the sustained high value of the dollar compared to the American currency.
Manufacturers that export are helped by a lower dollar. (CBC) The country's merchandise trade balance — what we sell outside Canada versus what we buy from other countries — improved to $5.8 billion in August but mainly because the amount Canada imported fell at a faster rate than its exports.
Export sales were down 1.6 per cent and were down 6.6 per cent in volume terms in August compared to the same time one year earlier, according to TD Economics.
The Canadian Auto Workers and other groups have complained that the high value of the national currency hampers the ability of Canadian companies, especially goods exporters, to sell products in other countries.
Now, with a slumping dollar, the price of these manufacturing and service companies' products should drop, making Canadian goods more attractive to overseas buyers.
- Any American looking to go shopping in Vancouver, Toronto or some other border community
The reverse logic works in this case.
A low loonie means Americans can buy more Canadian baubles and trinkets when they come north.
That fact makes vacation destinations in this country once again attractive to Americans who might not be able to afford an overseas trip.
So far, U.S. tourism into Canada has suffered because of the rising Canadian buck.
Tourism spots could get a boost from the shrinking currency. (CBC) When comparing the April-to-June period with the first three months of 2008, Canadians increased the amount of money spent travelling within Canada by 0.9 per cent. Meanwhile, non-residents cut their tourism to Canada slightly, by 0.1 per cent.
Worse, assuming a Canadian dollar at $1.02 US, the Ministry of Tourism in Ontario predicts there will be 1.46 million fewer visits to the province by Americans in 2009 than in 2008.
A lower-value loonie would boost the number of Canadians travelling within the country's borders and the number of Americans looking for a bit of R&R in this country.
At 78 cents, you can bet there are a bunch of tourism operators, especially as Vancouver gets ready for the 2010 Olympic Games, who are quietly high-fiving each other these days.
- Any Canadian company looking for a foreign buyer
As the economy slows, so too do the financial prospects for Canadian firms. One solution for these owners is to find a buyer for the company.
The lower Canadian dollar reduces the cost of a takeover for an American corporation or vulture funds. They would need to spend fewer U.S. dollars to gobble up a company on the Canadian side of the border.
Unfortunately for sellers in this country, however, U.S. buyers face the same economic downturn, hampering their financial ability to purchase any Canadian concern.
- U.S. buyers of Canadian-denominated financial assets
This group benefits from a lower dollar, but with a caveat.
Some Americans might be willing to buy Canadian bonds and other debt instruments if they believed Canada's currency might rise in the near future.
Then, for example, a bond worth $100 Cdn would translate more U.S. dollars as the Canadian currency rose and the instrument was cashed in.
That is where BMO's forecast of 85 cents comes in handy. If true, any U.S. purchaser of Canadian financial assets get a nine per cent gain just from the rise in the loonie.
Thumbs down
But a lower dollar has its own set of losers.
- The country's manufacturers (in a backhanded way)
Canada's goods-makers could be losers and winners in the same currency depreciation.
Historically, Canada's manufacturers import large amounts of capital equipment from other countries, mainly the United States. Canadian producers need these state-of-the-art machines to make their products more efficiently.
Without this latest generation gear, Canadian companies risk losing the productivity race to foreign firms as they fight for sales in various markets.
A slumping dollar just made that foreign equipment — machines that Canada's manufacturers have little choice but to buy — more costly.
- Any company paying expenses in U.S. dollars and getting cash in Canadian dollars
Many mining and other commodity companies have foreign operations in countries where they use American dollars to pay their expenses, such as wages.
The dropping dollar hurts the Toronto Blue Jays' finances. (Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press) When they sell their products, however, the cash comes in as Canadian dollars.
In this scenario, the sagging loonie will boost the cost line without helping the sales lines.
A sport team, say the Toronto Blue Jays baseball team, pays its players in U.S. dollars but receives a vast chunk of its money in Canadian currency. The depreciating dollar should make the Jays less profitable.
- Any company that receives parts from U.S. factories and sells the final product in Canada
Research In Motion enhances its blackberry by incorporating products and ideas from other companies. Those firms that supply RIM from the United States just became more expensive for the Canadian company as the dollar depreciates.
RIM is not alone. Many firms in Canada received parts and services from American suppliers.
Unfortunately for this crowd, the cost of receiving these supplies rises with the loonie's fall, a factor that could boost the price of the final product to consumers or reduce the profit margin for the companies.
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