A heavy hauler pulls away from a hydraulic shovel at the Muskeg River oilsands mine site in Alberta. The bitumen excavated at the site is mixed with warm water to separate the oil from the sand. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

Canadian oil production is expected to increase to at least 4.5 million barrels a day by 2020 from 2.7 million in 2007 under "moderate growth" assumptions, the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers said Wednesday.

A faster growth case, developed to help pipeline planners anticipate the needs for additional pipelines to the U.S. and perhaps Eastern Canada, forecasts production of five million barrels a day (b/d) in 2020.

In both cases, oilsands will account for an increasing share of the total as conventional production from Western Canada and the Atlantic offshore declines, the industry group said.

Oilsands production under the moderate growth assumptions will reach 3.5 million b/d in 2020, triple the 1.2 million b/d last year but down from four million predicted in the 2007 forecast.

The 2020 estimate was reduced because of regulatory changes, such as the Alberta government’s new royalty regime, climate change initiatives and pressure on labour and materials.

"Nonetheless, more oilsands projects have been announced, which is indicative of industry’s optimism regarding Canada’s oilsands opportunities," the report said.

Companies will invest $20 billion this year to develop oilsands projects.

Crude oil pipelines are reaching the limits of their capacity, and about 1.1 million b/d of new lines will be built by 2011, "which should be sufficient until 2013." After 2013, "a significant amount" of additional pipeline capacity will be needed, the report said.

The association based its forecast on a survey of oilsands producers earlier this year.