Analysts predict no change when the Bank of Canada makes its latest interest rate announcement Tuesday morning. Instead, attention is likely to be focused on hints the bank may dangle about future rate moves.

The bank's key overnight interest rate has been 4.5 per cent since July, when it was boosted by a quarter of a percentage point. 

Most analysts don't think the central bank will commit to any rate change until the new year — preferring instead to wait on the sidelines until the health of the Canadian and global economies becomes clearer.

On one hand, plenty of indicators would argue for a rate increase:

• Core inflation is above the Bank of Canada's two-per-cent target.
• Wage inflation is running at 4.2 per cent.
• Housing starts last month hit a 29-year high.
• Unemployment is at a 31-year low.

On the other hand, the arguments for a rate cut would normally be persuasive:

• The Canadian dollar is worth nearly $1.03 US and showing no sign of heading lower anytime soon.
• The U.S. housing market is in recession.
• Fallout from the U.S. subprime mortgage meltdown has rattled credit markets around the world, including Canada's.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve cut its key lending rate by half a percentage point last month. 

Faced with such a pull-and-push scenario, the consensus is for the Bank of Canada to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach for Tuesday's policy announcement and perhaps continue it into the first part of 2008, when new governor Mark Carney takes over.

In September, current governor David Dodge twice referred to the current 4.5-per-cent overnight rate as "appropriate."   

Some analysts said the Bank of Canada's eventual next move will be a rate hike.

"There is a global rebalancing, not global recession, underway," TD Bank economist Richard Kelly said. "Because of Canadian strength, the most likely next move from the bank will be up, not down."

But others see the bank eventually cutting rates.

"Although we judge that the double-whammy of weaker U.S. growth and a stronger [Canadian dollar] will do enough economic damage to tilt the balance of risks to the downside, the bank has a long easing fuse," said BMO Capital Markets senior economist Michael Gregory. "We’ve pencilled in a 2008 Q2 rate cut."

The 11 members of the C.D. Howe Institute's monetary policy council said the bank should leave its key interest rate unchanged on Tuesday. Six of the 11 also see no change coming at the bank's December meeting, while three are calling for the rate to rise to 4.75 per cent and two are recommending a cut to 4.25 per cent.

The Bank of Canada's rate announcement comes Tuesday at 9 a.m. ET.