CIBC says Canada's most populous province is on track to see its economy expand by more than the national average next year, the first time that's happened since before the recession.
The bank says Ontario's economy could expand by 2.8 per cent next year. That's slightly ahead of the 2.7 per cent expansion the bank expects for Canada's economy as a whole.
Indeed, it's good enough to tie Ontario for the second-fastest growth in the country next year, behind Alberta with a projected 3.5 per cent expansion in GDP.
"Ontario has seen a notable resurgence, shifting from a perennial trailer to among the better performing regions of the country," economists Avery Shenfeld and Warren Lovely wrote in their report.
The bank says the province is benefiting more than anywhere else in Canada from a resurgent U.S. economy. The strong American economy is pushing the loonie lower, which makes Ontario (and Canada) more competitive internationally.
Corporate tax rates also make the province an attractive place to invest — not to mention the $2.5-billion war chest that Queen's Park has amassed with a view toward encouraging more investment from companies in the province.
That could be good news for the province's government, which is currently trying to tame a budget deficit. If their predictions come to pass, two years from now the province could be sitting on an extra $4 to $5 billion in tax revenue acquired from an expanding economy.
"Momentum indicators point Ontario’s way," Shenfeld and Lovely wrote. "Employment hasn’t caught fire, but should respond at some point."