Michael Hlinka: What Obama missed in his financial system overhaul
- June 18, 2009 8:39 AM |
- By Michael Hlinka
Money Talks is a business column from CBC radio.
By Michael Hlinka, CBC business columnist:
One of my favourite sayings is from the comic strip, Pogo: “We have met the Enemy and They is Us!”
Why do I like it so much? It’s a great reminder that it’s all too easy to blame other people for problems that are largely our own creation.
This phrase came to mind as I read the details of President Barack Obama’s plan to overhaul the financial system of the United States. The proposals are sweeping. There’s a populist appeal to many of them. However, when it’s all said and done, the package won’t do much to prevent the next crisis.
In fact, it could even lead to one.
When you read the document: “Financial Regulatory Reform – A New Foundation,” you can see where the wheels come off. It correctly identifies that rising asset prices, particularly in the housing market, hid weak underwriting standards. However, from there it concludes that it was gaps and weaknesses in the supervision and regulation of financial firms that prevented government from doing what needed to be done to protect the integrity of the financial system. As a result, the Obama plan would greatly expand regulatory authority and create lots of new bureaucracies.
What’s totally missing is the recognition of what caused the crisis in the first place - and that was too much, too cheap money.
In Canada, managing the money supply is the Bank of Canada’s responsibility. In the United States, that job falls to the Federal Reserve. During the early years of this decade – in the wake of the 9/11 attack – the Federal Reserve started slashing interest rates. The belief was that this would help the economy grow. For a time it looked like things the plan was working. The housing market was running on all cylinders and the stock market soared.
But we now know that this was all an illusion … the economy was inflating rather than growing. Then the over-borrowing in the system exaggerated the downswing, just as it did with the upswing.
There is nothing in the Obama plan that takes away the discretionary power of the Federal Reserve Board to increase the size of the money supply. Rather, the plan gives elected officials and bureaucrats even more latitude to act in what they deem “the public interest." This is what then-President George Bush argued when interest rates were pushed to absurdly low level of 1 per cent in July, 2003. (By the way, they now stand at one-quarter of 1 per cent.)
The enemy of sound long-term economic policy is short-term political considerations, which is why when I look at this political plan to “fix” the economy, I see the enemy looking back.
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Comments (19)
If there is a theme running through this article, it is "disingenuousness". Having read and heard much Mr. Hlinka has had to say in the past, I regard him as too intelligent, too knowledgeable to have simply erred. This passage in particular struck me:
"During the early years of this decade – in the wake of the 9/11 attack – the Federal Reserve started slashing interest rates. The belief was that this would help the economy GROW (my emphasis). For a time it looked like things the plan was working. The housing market was running on all cylinders and the stock market soared.
But we NOW (my emphasis) know that this was all an illusion … the economy was inflating rather than growing."
It borders on hypocritical, even just plain false, to criticize Obama's plan for answering to political expediency, while refusing to acknowledge that the problem was actually caused by placing political expediency ahead of every other value to begin with. In fact, your own analysis seems to put political expediency (your own) ahead of sound reasoning.
The Fed was not actually hoping for "growth" in the economy, so much as growth in the stock market which might conceal weakness in the economy. And those of us who chose to look at the situation through a lens free of political filters knew back in 2002 that the "growth" was an illusion created in large measure by the policies of the Federal Reserve.
In other words, economic policies are always subservient to political philosophies. I question whether such a thing as "economic policy" actually exists outside of political circles. It might be true that Obama's plan carries a political message; so too does your critique.
Having federal oversight or even a government run central bank is the only way that the US will be able to shake this recurring problem. The US has had a private 'federal reserve' in one way or another for almost 200 years (even though the current federal reserve was created in 1910)
But Obama is right to be hesitant! the last president to stand up to the banks and nationalize their currency was Lincoln, and some would argue that is the main reason of the civil war and Lincolns assassination.
To learn more about the birth of the 'federal reserve' read "The Creature from Jekyll Island" by G. Edward Griffin, it will make you think
I agree with Michael, and would add that our consumer culture has created a society that can't live within its means. We will not resolve our economic woes until we get back to "saving for things we need", versus "taking loans for things we want".
Interesting, but history shows that the US Fed is not always the lap dog of politicians. It is to a great extent a private institution the shares of which are owned by the big reserve banks. Only part of its board is appointed by government, and its actions are at times quite irritating to government. So how do we blame the Fed's bubble blowing on political pressure? Mr. Hlinka is a thoughtful person, but I think he has misses the real problem. It is the fashion now to think that we are smart to let the foxes run the henhouse. The US Federal Reserve system is essentially that - big banks regulating banks. What did we think was going to happen? This is why I am scared about Obama's new banking regulation rollout. Not because it is regulation, but because it seems to give the Fed a central regulatory role. Plus ca change.
As much as I admire President Obama for his intelligence and his determination to fix the world, I'm concerned by the swiftness and strength of his reactions. I remember the Pogo strip words, but in these times I'm thinking that it's like we're all in a car and it's skidding. Instead of gently pumping the brakes and relying on the ABS, someone is slamming on the brakes and we have no clue where we're going to end up - never mind that we cant see the poles and trees along the side of the road.... I think the cheap money issue has now become history - our skidding car now has a mind of its own. Until it hits something, or simply stops....
I beleive people are scared with less government intervention during a recession and are looking for leadership (either for someone to blame if it doesnt succeed or for actual guidance).
That being said, the Obama Administration is taking this exploiting the vulnerability of Americans and is using it as a way of changing the market economy to better suit what he sees as a fundamental core flaw in the economy.
Why is there for criticism of the Obama Administration? Imagine if a Republic decided to enlarge the Government to simply CONTROL the economy and specific sectors. Control, Control, regulation, control... same thing.
Michael,
So, you think Obama should take away much of the Fed's ability to control the money supply? Why? Do you think that legislators or the executive (read: politicians) should control it?
Are you arguing that the US Government should influence the economy without monetary policy? That would leave only fiscal policy: regulation, which you seem to altogether dislike.
Or are you pulling a Peter Schiff on us by suggesting that the US should revert to the gold standard?
You observed correctly that the real reason why the money markets collapsed is because underwriting standards were "weak". But, to be more to the point, the underwriting was utterly incompetent and irrational, and that's because underwriters' hand was forced by the avarice of a few key players (e.g. Bear Stearns). And this climate emerged precisely after the point at which Bush's administration deregulated that part of the financial sector in '05.
Behavior like that of Bear Stearns, etc., is the reason why the private sector will never self-regulate properly. AS you know, business ethicists widely theorize that the private sector would recognize that it's in its best interest to self-regulate, because otherwise the government will step in and impose its own regulation to the possible detriment of private interests. Yet, the reality is that private interests never behave like game theorists expect: they aren't rational and they don't strategize for the long run. So, governments need to impose regulation after all.
Using the housing market as an example if 3 0r 4% mortgages do nothing but drive the pricing up the only winners are speculators. The market was far better off with 7 and 8% mortgages as this kept a cap on prices and limited speculation.
The other advantage to higher rates is that there are low risk investment opportunities available.This limits the money available to mutual funds which have become nothing but a huge Ponzi scheme, pushing stocks to values that have no relationship to the companies economic value. Fund managers and their sales staff have created an idea that makes people think that because we have 100$ we should get 10$ a year for nothing ,this has distorted the real value of our economy.
My question is if a guy who drives trains and didn't finish high school can see this why cant our leaders and thinkers of the world grasp it?
Allowing the attacks of September 11, 2001 to trigger an economic collapse would have encouraged terrorists, by making their crimes more effective. A rational response to economic downturns is to stimulate the economy to promote the effective use of resources you do have, without encouraging the wasteful consumption of resources you don't have. One of the obvious ways of achieving this, though, is excoriated as 'protectionism', so it's not really surprising that the tragedy of war ends up being the only thing that lifts countries out of the troughs of the business cycle.
I seriously doubt that any attempt to regulate a commodity market with the intended purpose of avoiding price swings will be successful. Oil specifically is traded globally and should the US attempt to regulate, traders will easily find an acceptable "work around" to continue speculating.
Since when do private interests truly look after public interests. The human tendency is to look after one's self first. The Fed which is really controlled by bankers lending money to the government who lends the money back to the banks is nothing but usury. The Fed should be nationalized and taken back for the people. BTW how many of Obama's team is from Wall street. Is anything going to change? The fox is not only in the hen house, it's nesting with the chickens.
Michael clearly understands the problem.
If the private sector was left alone in the first place the economy would not have hit the wall in the first place. Obama is clearly a socialist. We should not be suprised by his abrupt leap into communist regulation.
Learned this in the great depression too. who says history does't repeat itself.
So your conclusion is that too much cheap money caused the credit crisis?
When the Fed (or the Bank of Canada) creates new money, it does not tell banks how to invest the money. Banks are supposed to use their brains and invest or lend wisely.
If Wall Street is going to take a big risk on the theory that home prices will keep rising and that there is little risk in lending to people who don't qualify for a standard mortgage then Wall Street is to blame.
When the Fed becomes responsible for how banks invest their money, then your argument makes sense.
Please note that a variety of Wall Street firms continue to have security class action cases filed against them in relation to the subprime mortgage securities they sold to investors.
How can economists and 'experts' continue to ignore the growing inequality in North America as the majority of Canadians have experienced a stagnation and decrease in their real wages. We want to focus on institutions without talking about their real consequences to the day-to-day lives. And this underlying cause, the North America economy's dependence on a growing consumer economy without increasing the wages of the majority of consumers led to a debt-financing culture. And the `solution` of economists and experts is now to go to the hardest hit from any economic downturn and ask for `consessions`. And if we have politicians who are concerned about how the economy performs for the masses and not just for the wealthy the experts will toss around the `dirty word` of populism.
It is obvious to anyone with half a brain that the Federal Reserve has nothing to do with any of the current economic woes. It is ENTIRELY the fault of the consumer. We all owe it to our country to spend ourselves into debt to help our business and our governments
While I agree that Michael's message could be viewed as a political statement, he is indeed correct about the availability of cheap money. However, is there perhaps several important and bigger issues that no one wishes to talk about? In fact, I think there are three primary issues.
1. The US Federal Reserve is a consortium of private national and international interests. Are they acting in the best interest of the average American or their stakeholders?
2. The nation debt of the US, and the debt it has sold internationally, in particular China. What happens if China dumps the billions it holds?
3. Irregardless of all these changes that are made, the US had shed MILLIONS of jobs. Not thousands, MILLIONS. Even if these people get new jobs, who will want to buy anything? How can someone who's lost their job, gone into further debt into the thousands, be even interested in spending when they need to get back on their feet again? Will they have the same amount of disposable income? How long will it take those jobs to come back - and will they be the same kind of jobs that paid as well?
A lot of questions - and the future of the US as a financial powerhouse isn't good. The answers to all are
Nice article - except of course that it is totally wrong.
The problem was not caused by cheap money, but by lax lending standards, the securitization of residential mortgages and the proliferation of associated mixed-standard securities and derivatives.
Greenspan personally deserves a large part of the "credit" as well, as one of his public musings gave rise to over a million Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) being written and subsequently securitized (under the same lax standards) just before he, or the Fed if you prefer, began raising the discount rate - by 50% or so over 18 months.
Though he did attempt to retract his musing on ARMs a day or two after it was made, this did not make the headlines, and the retraction had little effect. The resetting of these ARMs at higher rates and the resulting mortgage defaults applied a decidedly straight and sharp pin to the housing bubble.
It is not the cheap money which is the culprit here, but the rapid increase in the price of money given structural conditions in the market.
That, and exporting your economy offshore so that vast swaths of the population can't really afford to buy a house, or pay the rent, or see a doctor.
Greenspan has testified before committee that his faith in unfettered markets was, well, wrong, and has retired. Too bad he didn't muse about that a little sooner.
As for the Fed, though superficially autonomous, it is in fact largely subservient to the will of the government of the day. It takes government instruction on matters of broad policy. Its autonomy is in day-to-day operation of the banking system and in the details of policy implementation. It is tasked with preserving the national currency as a transaction medium and a store of value, as well as the overall health of the banking system, but it can not realistically defy the instructions of an elected government. Its "discretionary power" to change the money supply in any substantial manner simply does not exist.
I don't have a lot of confidence in Michaels opinions anymore. Or for that matter, just about any financial adviser.
Clearly, they are clueless as the recent developments have shown.
But that was all illusion? Excuse me? Money is tangible, it can be counted to the dime. If you didn't see this crash coming then you don't know anything about finances and shouldn't play like you do.
There is too much greed. Period. But you won't ever hear that from a financial adviser.
Where was your good advice 5 years ago?