Canada's housing market is in no danger of a correction nationally, but that's not the case in Toronto, Regina and Winnipeg where the CMHC says there's a "high risk" of a slowdown.
In its quarterly house price analysis released Thursday, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation says Toronto, Regina and Winnipeg are at "high risk" of a housing correction for a variety of factors.
The housing agency looks at market conditions in 15 major housing markets across the country. While most markets get a low or moderate risk in the CMHC's eyes, the agency singled out Regina, Winnipeg and Toronto for being in a possible danger zone.
The reasons for concern are not the same in each city. In Toronto, the main concern is that "the rise in house prices has not been matched by growth in personal disposable incomes" the CMHC said, adding there is evidence of overbuilding in the market, with a historically high level of unsold units.
Toronto's conditions have gotten worse since April, when the city was deemed to be at "moderate risk" of a slowdown. Regina and Winnipeg, meanwhile, were singled out in the CMHC's last quarterly report in April, too.
"The high level of risk in Winnipeg reflects risks of overvaluation and overbuilding, while in Regina it reflects price acceleration, overvaluation and overbuilding, particularly of condominium apartments," the agency said.
The rest of the country is deemed to be in pretty good shape from a risk perspective.
Montreal and Quebec City's housing markets were deemed of moderate risk despite the presence of some overvaluation. And the CMHC says Vancouver's housing market is a "low risk" one despite sky-high prices, because demand is backed "by a growing population and growth in personal disposable income."
The last time the CMHC put out its quarterly report, there were only 12 cities in it. This one expanded the scope to 15 and of the three new ones added — Victoria, Hamilton and Moncton — each of which were assessed as "low overall risk" in terms of their housing markets.