General Pervez Musharraf's decision to stand for re-election next month as Pakistan's president is posing enormous political and constitutional turmoil in the world's only nuclear-armed Muslim country.

Musharraf's legal eligibility to run for the top position is the subject of a Pakistan Supreme Court case, which pits the president against a coalition of religious and secular opposition parties.

This is the first serious political challenge to Gen. Musharraf's leadership in the eight years since the army chief seized power in what was, at the time, a widely popular 1999 coup that ousted Nawaz Sharif.

Pakistan's senate, national and provincial parliaments will elect the next president on October 8.

One of the key issues is whether Musharraf will adhere to the constitutional requirement to give up control of the army, one of the country's few national institutions.

The opposition coalition, the All People's Democratic Movement (APDM), has threatened to resign if Musharraf is allowed to run for president. The APDM holds approximately 25 per cent of the national assembly and its absence would undermine parliamentary legitimacy.

Another disquieting element is that the leaders of Pakistan's two most popular opposition parties — Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto — are both in exile, though hoping to return.

A final decision from the Supreme Court is expected shortly.

How power is transferred in the Muslim country has far-reaching consequences for regional stability, for the people of Pakistan and for the NATO mission in neighbouring Afghanistan.

A U.S. intelligence report released in July said al Qaeda's operational capacity is at its strongest since September 2001, calling Pakistan a safe haven for al-Qaeda.

To get a better understanding of the situation in Pakistan and the difficulties Musharraf faces, CBCNews online interviewed Carleton University political scientist Elliot Tepper, an Asian studies specialist, who says Pakistan's politics have reached a crucial phase. He spoke with Michael Lehan.

Carleton political scientist, Elliot Tepper (Carleton University)

Now that an election has been called, and Gen. Musharraf will run, what do you think the opposition's reaction will be?

The two major opposition parties are divided right now rather than united. The Pakistan People's Party has been in long-term negotiation – at first secretly, now not so secretly – with Gen. Pervez Musharraf to arrange some kind of power sharing in a post-election scenario.

Those talks have not come to a successful fruition, however they are still ongoing. The other opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League, led by Nawaz Sharif, will be vehemently opposed to this election. The religious parties are a bit of an unknown at this point, although they are officially aligned with all the opposing democratic forces in keeping the president from running in the upcoming election.

I think the parties are going to be divided for the upcoming future.

What options do the opposition parties have?

The immediate recourse of the Pakistan People's Party, of Benazir Bhutto, is to press ahead with renewed vigour for the power sharing arrangement they've been seeking. That absence of legitimacy will weigh heavily on Musharraf. They can say 'make a deal now or we'll join the opposition now in de-legitimizing your re-election.'

There's a great risk for Bhutto in all of this. She's breaking with the opposition to work with a military leader who has been seriously weakened.

Had she returned earlier as she indicated she would at the time of the 2004 election, her return would have electrified the country. Now that she's in discussion with an increasingly embattled and weakened military ruler, it adds an extra legitimacy to Nawaz Sharif in his appeal to the masses that he stands for democracy.

What happens if the opposition coalition refuses to participate?

The official apparatus of the election can proceed, and Pervez Musharraf can be re-elected under the terms that he has set without any further compromise with the opposition parties. He has the majorities necessary with the provincial and federal legislature.

The legitimacy of the election will be in question, if the opposition are not part of the discussion, discourse and consensus and voting, then the legitimacy of the continued rule of the president under those circumstances will have a cloud over it, however he will have technically the constitutional authority to do so.

The likelihood of Musharraf being defeated is not too high because his party has the necessary majority, and if it looks like he's going to win, other parties will flock to his standard.

The option of declaring martial law remains on the table. As head of the armed forces and as head of the country under the constitution he can declare that the country faces such dire circumstances right now that the process of the constitution need to be suspended.

How will that sit with Pakistan's allies, particularly the United States?

The United States in this case is clearly a factor. Only a few weeks ago, as this crisis was building, there was a well-documented rumour circulating in Islamabad, [that] the president had signed a decree of emergency power, but immediately received a call from (U.S. Secretary of State) Condoleezza Rice, who told him rather bluntly that the United States did not wish to support an undemocratic process in Pakistan. At that point the announcement went out from the presidential office that there was going to be no emergency decree.

What influence does radical Islam have on Pakistan politics?

The Islamists in Pakistan are a threat to the elite of Pakistan. There's been a number of attempts on the leaders, since the Red Mosque [siege]. Suicide bombers have taken a toll on the military and civilian population.

The spectre of a nuclear-armed Pakistan coming under the control of a Taliban fundamentalist regime seems like a highly unlikely outcome of this crisis. They do not command popular support, electoral support or military capacity.

The general has been the primary ally and the source of material support for the American position in the war on terror. But we should remember that Pakistan had very close ties with the Taliban prior to September 11, but President Musharraf turned Pakistan's foreign policy around 90 degrees. It was a wrenching adjustment, to be fair to Pakistan and its leadership; no other state made as great an adjustment following September 11.

What was Musharraf's motivation for allying himself with Washington?

There are two speculations, one is that the U.S. made an offer he couldn't refuse. A very senior Bush administration official said in the rhetoric of the day, "you're either with us or you're against us, and you have to choose tonight."

The deeper explanation comes from speculation on the nature of Musharraf himself. I believe he sees himself as something as an Ataturk figure for Pakistan [a modern-day father of his country]. He wishes to see a more secular and progressive country under his leadership.

What influence does the Supreme Court have over the election?

The military does not wish to be seen as an illegitimate force in the country ruling by coercion. They wish to be seen as protectors of the nation and a legitimate political player. Therefore the Supreme Court ruling against a senior officer running for office would be seen as a great blow to the militaries legitimacy, upon which they depend.

The supreme court showed unexpected independence from the military in the past few years, which probably triggered the attempted removal of Chief Justice Iftikar Chaudhry. The Supreme Court will play a role in deciding whether the president can run for re-election under the old parliaments, or if he has to wait for new ones to be elected, at which point he will be out of office.

The legitimacy of holding the election now has somewhat been taken away from the Supreme Court by a decision of the electoral commission, another autonomous body staffed by justices. They have amended the rules to permit the elections to go ahead now.

However the Supreme Court still has to rule on whether Nawaz Sharif can come back to the country. How they rule on that issue will affect the politics of Pakistan.

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