Chilean president-elect Michelle Bachelet, January 2006.(Associated Press)
The elections in late 2005 and early 2006 of leftist candidates in presidential elections in Chile and Bolivia have observers citing what they see as further evidence of an unmistakable and fundamental shift in the region's politics. Some may caution that it's too easy to draw broad regional conclusions about a huge area driven by many disparate political forces. But there is no denying the increasingly leftish tilt of central and South American politics.
Consider the evidence: As mentioned above, there are Chile and Bolivia. In Venezuela, President Hugo Chavez heads Latin America's best known leftist government. A leftist is ahead in the polls in Mexico, where presidential elections are scheduled for July. Left-leaning leaders are already in power in Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay. And Peru and Nicaragua could also see their governments take a left turn in elections set for later 2006.
Some on the left are quick to declare the recent political victories by leftists as nothing less than a "revolution" – proof that the pendulum has swung in favour of leftist candidates all across the region. "A wind is blowing to the left across Latin America," said Mario Alvarez, the head of Mexico's trade union federation.
Those who note the swing left in Latin America sometimes also see something else – a strong and rising streak of anti-Americanism running through some of the countries that are doing the swinging. The opposition to Washington is most apparent in Venezuela, where President Chavez appears to really enjoy provoking George W. Bush. Bolivia's new president-elect also campaigned against what he called U.S. "imperialism."
The risks to western – and especially U.S. – business interests in the region are seen as growing. Every year, insurance giant Aon Corporation analyzes the political and economic risks for American business in more than 200 countries. Its 2006 report said those risks were rising in Latin America.
"The emergence of more left-wing governments in Latin America is causing concern for foreign businesses," Aon said. "Companies doing business in Venezuela and Bolivia are facing higher taxes, revision of contracts and threatened expropriation of assets." Aon downgraded Bolivia, Nicaragua, Guatemala, Belize a\nd Costa Rica in its 2006 analysis.
But in some Latin American countries, the anti-Americanism is less strident – amounting to more of a distancing from Washington and its free market and privatization initiatives, which are widley seen to have failed to address serious economic disparities throughout the region.
The following are capsules of the central and South American countries that are now run by leftist governments or where left-of-centre leaders could take power in 2006.
Chile:
On Jan. 15, 2006, Chileans elected their first woman president. Socialist Michelle Bachelet comes from the same centre-left alliance that has run Chile since the end of the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet in1990. She was jailed and tortured during the Pinochet years but subsequently won praise for her efforts to heal the deep post-Pinochet divisions between the military and rank-and-file Chileans. She came to power on a market-friendly promise to improve social equality. Her platform pledged to maintain free trade ties and good relations with the U.S.Bolivia:
Bolivia's president-elect, Evo Morales, became the first indigenous person to be elected to the top job in the country's history in December 2005. He is a former labour leader, an ally of Venezuela's Chavez, and a longtime leftist. But observers don't agree on whether his government will move to the far left. During his campaign, Morales threatened to nationalize foreign oil companies in Bolivia. But he appeared to take a more conciliatory attitude following his election, saying that foreign companies "have every right to recover investments and make profits." He did, however, add that those profits need to be "balanced."Venezuela:
The presidency of Hugo Chavez has survived a coup attempt, a nationwide oil strike, and a recall referendum. But it's widely expected he'll be re-elected in a vote scheduled for December 2006. Washington accuses him of fomenting instability throughout South America. And Chavez has annoyed and worried the U.S. with his continuing threats to cut off oil exports. The tone of Chavez' rhetoric is avowedly anti-American, accusing the Bush administration of wanting to impose "horrific imperialism" on the world. Critics say he is using the country's vast oil fortune to increase his influence far beyond Venezuela's borders. Chavez's warm friendship with Cuba's Fidel Castro hardly endears him to Washington either.Argentina:
Argentine President Nestor Kirchner came to power in 2003 following the worst economic crisis in Argentina's history. He is a reformist and a centre-left Peronist and once declared he was proud of his radical past, which included a stint in prison during the dictatorships of the 1970s. Once in office, he forced many judges and military leaders to leave office or retire and then managed to reschedule Argentina's huge foreign debt. The next presidential election is scheduled for 2007.Mexico:
Mexicans head to the polls in July 2006 to elect a new president for the next six years. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, leader of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD), is leading in the polls. The popular former mayor of Mexico City is considered a moderate leftist who advocates more social spending. He is promising a social security plan for senior citizens and pledges to reduce the wide income disparity in the country.Brazil:
Brazilians cast their ballots in the presidential election set for Oct. 1, 2006. Moderate leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (popularly known as "Lula"), first elected in 2002, is expected to run again. But he could face an uphill battle from centrist Jose Serra, thanks to campaign finance and bribery scandals that have forced the resignations of several high officials in Lula's Workers Party.Uruguay:
One of the first things Tabare Vazquez did after he was sworn in as Uruguay's first leftist president in 2005 was to re-establish diplomatic relations with Cuba. But the former mayor of Montevideo is not perceived to be as radically left as Castro (or Venezuela's Chavez, for that matter). Instead, many liken Vazquez to Brazil's Lula – a moderate leftist intent on fighting poverty and creating jobs, while embracing an economic direction that is more centrist and favouring foreign investment.Nicaragua
Elections in Nicaragua take place Nov. 5, 2006. The current president, Enrique Bolanos, is a U.S.-backed businessman first elected in 2001. But he could be in for a major fight to hang on to his job. Sandanista leader Daniel Ortega says he wants to run for the presidency and the U.S. is clearly worried that Ortega and the left-wing Sandinistas could be returned to power for the first time since their ouster in 1990.Peru
Peruvians vote in presidential elections April 9. A leftist could end up succeeding the current president, Alejandro Toledo. A retired military officer, Ollanta Humala, has seen his popularity surge in recent polling. He has openly allied himself with Veneuzuela's Chavez and Bolivia's Morales. But Humala would still face a tough battle with Lourdes Flores Nano, the centre-right candidate, and a runoff election would likely be necessary in May. Former left-wing President Alan Garcia is also in the running.
