INDEPTH: ECONOMIC & FISCAL UPDATE
Surplus
CBC News Online | November 14, 2005
Finance Minister Ralph Goodale is forecasting that the country will continue producing large budget surpluses over the next five years, thanks in part to healthy economic growth.
In the economic and fiscal update he delivered to the House of Commons finance committee, Goodale said the budget surplus for the current fiscal year, which concludes at the end of March 2006, is projected to come in at $8.2 billion. In August, the federal surplus was running at $6.8 billion.
Looking ahead, the government said it was using a total of 16 independent forecasts from the private sector to come up with the following budget surplus projections:
- 2005-06: $8.2 billion
- 2006-07: $9.2 billion
- 2007-08: $9.5 billion
- 2008-09: $7.9 billion
- 2009-10: $8.4 billion
- 2010-11: $11.3 billion
The surplus figures have been boosted since Goodale's February 2005 budget because of higher expected corporate and personal tax revenue, as well as lower debt charges.
"Such fiscal strength empowers Canadians to look at the future with increasing confidence," Goodale said in his prepared statement for delivery to the finance committee.
Goodale added that private sector forecasters are projecting real economic growth of 2.8 per cent in 2005, 2.9 per cent in 2006, and 3.1 per cent in 2007.
Despite the healthy surpluses and stable economic projections, the finance minister cautioned that risks to the Canadian economy are still lurking.
For example, a surge in the cost of energy could shake consumer confidence in Canada and the United States, and affect demand for goods in both countries. Additionally, Goodale added, continued budget and current account deficits in the U.S. could put downward pressure on the American dollar, which would make life tougher for Canadian exporters.
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