INDEPTH: CLIMATE CHANGE
Scientific differences
CBC News Online | March 24, 2005
Although we often hear about the "global warming debate," there are facts that are not in dispute. There is a scientific consensus that the world is, in fact, getting warmer. There are varying studies that debate by how much, but the fact of warming itself is not in dispute. There is also no serious doubt that humans have contributed to increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
But not all scientists agree on the causes or effects of the current global warming, although most agree that human activities are having an effect. Since the industrial revolution, the burning of fossil fuels has led to an increase in the atmosphere of carbon dioxide, one of the greenhouse gases.
Most Global Climate Models (GCMs), used to predict climate change, show that an increase in carbon dioxide is likely to lead to a continued increase in temperature. But some critics say the models may not be accurate predictors of the future, particularly since there is debate about how high the temperature will go. Others argue that the planet can handle the increase in carbon dioxide, and still others argue that the human influence is not strong enough to change global climate.
Coastline vulnerability to sea level changes
The green, unsolidified Arctic coasts are more susceptible to erosion than solidified coasts, shown in orange. Islands in the Canadian Arctic are also vulnerable to tectonic forces. (Courtesy: ACIA)
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It is important to note that few of the criticisms come from climatologists. The fossil fuel-based energy sector has spent millions of dollars lobbying the U.S. government and the public on this issue, arguing that limiting the use of fossil fuels will hurt the economy.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, considered the major forum for assessing research on this topic, brings together the work of thousands of scientists.
These distinctions are important. Policy makers use the science to make decisions. The Kyoto Protocol agreement calls for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, to limit future human impact on the world's climate.
But there are critics who say it is not enough, and others who say it is unnecessary, arguing that global warming is either out of our hands or will be so small that there is no need to combat it.
Many countries, including Canada, Britain and Russia, have ratified the treaty. U.S. President George W. Bush has described Kyoto as "fatally flawed," saying that while reducing greenhouse gases is an important goal, the deal would hurt the U.S. economy and cost jobs.
As long as there is room for different realistic interpretations of the science, there will be varied political responses to it.
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