A section of the ice sheet covering much of Greenland is seen in this August 2005 photo. Scientists say the ice is thinning and blame global warming, predicting a metre rise in ocean levels by the end of the century through a combination of thermal expansion of the water and melting of polar ice. (John McConnico/Associated Press)

Climate change strategies

The UN Convention on Climate Change was proposed in 1992 to establish a framework for stabilizing greenhouse gas emission. It was ratified in 1994, and now has 191 members. It is the parent treaty to the Kyoto Protocol.

The Kyoto Protocol, proposed in 1997 and ratified in 2005, required 35 industrial nations to cut global warming causing emissions by five per cent below 1990 levels by 2012 and established a carbon trading market. It has been ratified by 175 nations, but not by the U.S.

Canada and Kyoto

The Canadian government announced in February 2007 that it would not attempt to meet the 2012 Kyoto targets.

Environment Minister John Baird announced an alternate plan, setting a goal of cutting emissions to 616 megatonnes by 2020, down from an estimated 770 MT in 2006.

The Canadian Kyoto target is 563 MT in emissions by 2012.

What to expect in Kyoto's phase two:

• A 50 to 85 per cent reduction in emissions from 1990 levels by 2050.
• A combination of legal obligations, non-binding commitments and aid arrangements for the developing world.
• Individualized plans for countries based on financial and development circumstances.
• Incentives for developing countries to limit emissions.
• Nation-specific efforts to limit the impact of high-emitting industries.

Related: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

With only five years before the first phase of the Kyoto Protocol expires, United Nations climate change officials are racing to negotiate a roadmap for greenhouse gas reductions post-2012.

On Monday, Sept. 24, nearly 80 heads of countries gathered at the UN headquarters in New York City for a one-day summit to discuss global efforts to curb climate change.

The high-level New York meeting was designed to build confidence in advance of the UN Climate Change Conference in Bali in December, where leaders hope to forge a new deal to replace the Kyoto Protocol when it expires in 2012.

An August preliminary meeting in Vienna issued a report finding that $223 billion would be required to hold greenhouse gas at current levels through to 2030. The report said most of the spending would be required in developing countries.

Who was there?

The summit was the largest-ever political gathering to discuss climate change.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and UN climate chief Yvo de Boer addressed officials from more than 150 member states, including 80 heads of state.

Ban said he hoped the meeting would bring about creative solutions to climate change. He warned the attendees, "If we do not act now, the impact of climate change will be devastating."

U.S. President George W. Bush did not attend the Monday meeting. However, both former U.S. vice-president Al Gore and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger addressed the summit, touting individual states' commitment to Kyoto and post-Kyoto plans.

Ahead of the meeting, Gov. Schwarzenegger said, "California is moving the United States beyond debate and doubt to action."

The United States withdrew from the Kyoto agreement following Bush's election in 2000, and the president is sponsoring a parallel climate change conference later in the week at which 16 of the world's largest GHG emitters, including Canada, are scheduled to attend.

At the UN meeting, Prime Minister Stephen Harper urged governments to adopt a flexible, balanced approach to the issue. He also touted Canada's technological solutions to climate change, including carbon capture and underground storage.

"We are balancing environmental protection with economic growth, we are balancing public and private sector involvement in clean energy technology development," said Harper. Canada's position is uncertain at this point. Ottawa was an early adopter of the Kyoto targets, but is not expected to reach them by the 2011 deadline.

What's more, the Harper government recently announced that it would not be reintroducing the climate change legislation it put forward earlier this year, because it did not like the amendments the opposition parties attached to it.

What was discussed at the preparatory meetings?

The Vienna Climate Change Talks 2007, held Aug. 27-31, was the continuation of planning efforts started at the Montreal conference.

It saw more than 1,000 representatives from industry, environmental organizations, research institutions and the convention's 191 members converge to discuss possibilities and best practices to propose at the pivotal UNFCCC Conference of Parties in December.

The Vienna meeting discussed ways to reduce emissions and slow climate change through international participation. Feasible targets, technology use and financial requirements were considered by attending delegates.

Additionally, the Vienna meeting released a report stating an additional $223 billion would be required annually to hold greenhouse gas emissions to the current level in 2030, and that the developing world would require additional funding to adapt to climate change in their countries. The study said that some of the money could be raised through the carbon markets spawned by the Kyoto Protocol.

The report from the conference is expected to play a key role in any decisions for Phase 2. Leaders were briefed on these findings ahead of Monday's meeting in New York.

What are the next steps?

Establishing a framework or roadmap for the future emission cutting strategy is a goal of the UNFCCC conference in Bali, Indonesia from Dec. 3 through 14.

The annual conference, which has attracted more than 8,000 delegates in previous years, will host members of member countries, environmental organizations, delegates from business and industry, and researchers to determine the best strategy for the Kyoto successor.

The Bali meetings are expected to be a decisive step in determining the future of global action on reducing emissions, adapting to low-emission technologies, advancing the global carbon market and financing international responses to climate change.

What can we expect for the Kyoto successor?

Environmentalists hope the Sept. 24 meeting will build confidence for ambitious goals to be set at the Bali conference, but keeping a disparate array of countries committed will require a careful balancing of interests.

The next phase of the climate change strategy could be a combination of many approaches, including legal obligations, non-binding commitments and aid arrangements for the developing world, the UNFCCC head said on Aug. 23.

He said the plan did not need to be one size fits all, and each country should be able to choose its own path based on its monetary and developmental circumstances within the body's goals.

The biggest reduction in emissions proposed in the reports would see a 50 to 85 per cent reduction from 1990 levels by 2050.

According to these reports, the second phase could include short-term reduction goals and clean technology incentives for developing countries, along with nation-specific efforts focussed on limiting emissions from specific sectors, such as cement, pulp and paper, and iron and steel.

Other possibilities include introducing fiscal, market and regulatory approaches to reduce the costs of cutting high-emission activities and promoting investment in the development and use of new low-emission technologies.

Reduction plans include cutting carbon emissions in the electricity sector and changing industry practices over the long term.

Why a climate change plan?

Most scientists agree that the Earth is getting hotter. In the past decade, UN researchers, along with other scientists and environmentalists, have sounded the alarm about the negative impact of greenhouse gas emissions.

Power plants, factories and vehicles emit a mixture of gases that trap heat in the atmosphere, causing the mercury to slowly but surely rise.

Experts say this global warming translates into the melting of polar ice caps, intensified weather systems, such as droughts and floods, and could increase pressure on water and food supplies in many parts of the world.

UN climate change officials have said that global warming is an international problem that is not easily solved, but cannot be ignored.

What are the current climate change strategies?

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) spearheaded international efforts to combat climate change in the early 1990s.

In 1992, the Convention on Climate Change was introduced to begin an international, collaborative effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The treaty, which was ratified in 1994, was signed by 191 countries, including Canada.

The signatories were given the task to develop strategies for stabilizing and limiting greenhouse gas emissions. The member countries were also asked to support developing countries in their efforts to cut emissions.

Three years after ratification, member countries devised the Kyoto Protocol. The climate change strategy was introduced at the convention's annual conference in Kyoto, Japan in 1997, and set legally binding requirements for 35 industrial countries to cut their emissions by five per cent from the 1990 levels by 2012.

The protocol also devised a carbon trading market and set up a system for countries to offset their obligations by sponsoring emission-reduction programs, such as reforestation or introducing new technologies, in developing countries.

Kyoto took effect on Feb. 16, 2005, and has been ratified by 175 countries. Its membership includes most major industrialized countries, with the exception of the United States, Australia and Monaco.

Developing countries, such as India and China, were exempt from the first round of emissions cuts, with their obligations set to kick in after 2012. However, both have since made their own climate change commitments, with India promising to produce 25 per cent of its energy from renewable supplies by 2030 and China set to increase its energy efficiency by 20 per cent within five years.

Countries failing to meet their Kyoto targets by the end of 2012 must make up for their reduction shortfall, plus a 30-per-cent penalty, during the second commitment period. At the ratification conference in Montreal in 2005, conference participants called for a second phase of binding commitments to be negotiated as quickly as possible, to ensure there would be no gap between the Kyoto phases.

Two years later, negotiations are set to begin on Kyoto's successor.

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