What will Canada look like in the year 2020? To encourage a debate about the major challenges Canada will face in the coming decades, the Dominion Institute and the Toronto Star have invited 20 leading thinkers to write about an issue or event that they think could transform the country by 2020.

Chantal Hébert

The eyes of the world are on the former Canadian federation on this first Tuesday of November 2020 as its 19 million voters participate for the first time in an American presidential election as full-fledged U.S. citizens.

The outcome of one of the most closely fought election battles in recent American history will be a close one. It is expected that the 50 new Electors from Canada will ultimately tip the balance in favour of one of the two women who are vying for the presidency.

On this voting day, the American public is more deeply divided as to the future course of their nation than it has been in decades.

Voters are torn between the militarist approach favoured by the successive Republican administrations that have occupied the White House without interruption since the early days of the 21st century, and the Democrat promise to restore multilateralism and move to a more open "peace economy."

Since the withdrawal of the United States from the main international forums 12 years ago and the subsequent relocation of the United Nations outside American soil, it is the first time a serious presidential candidate campaigns on the promise to re-engage the country in formal international dialogue.

In the interval, the Republican administration has gone to extraordinary lengths to keep the country free of terrorist attacks. The result has been a full decade free of such deadly incidents, at least on American soil, but also a physical and political isolation on par with that of the Soviet Bloc of the previous century.

Look out Republicans

The central role that the traditionally progressive Canadian voters could play in the outcome of this pivotal election is exactly what the best minds in the international community had hoped for when they originally rallied behind the plan to have the former federation become an American state.

A decade ago, most of the big players on the international scene supported a radical redrawing of the North American political map as part of a last-ditch effort to try to change the balance between isolationists and multilateralists within the last remaining military superpower.

The stakes involved in what really is a battle by proxy between the American Right and much of the progressive forces of the democratic world are unprecedented.

Inspired by the American resolve to stay out of all multilateral forums and framework agreements, China and India have gone down the path of a no-holds-barred capitalism that has allowed them to make giant economic leaps, but only at huge costs to the global environment and to the financial health of poorer nations. Short of a dramatic shift in U.S. policy, the world trend that puts leading-edge technology at the service of feudal values will be irreversible.

Canada, the Trojan Horse

The morphing of Canada into a political Trojan Horse invested with the best last hopes of the planet's progressive forces did not take place easily. Without strong pressure from the international community and the many calls to the social conscience of Canadians, the project to join the American political union would never have rallied the 66% support required to pass the test of the 2010 referendum.

Pushed to the brink by the virtual closure of the Canada-U.S. border in the wake of the 2007 terrorists attacks and the partial destruction of three of that country's major cities, corporate Canada lined up early behind an urgent redefinition of Canada's political status. On Wall Street and among corporate America's political allies in the White House, the notion of making Canada a formal part of the United States had traction from the very start.

After 2001, the acquisition by the U.S. of energy reserves sheltered from the ideological currents that regularly sweep the planet became a strategic priority. Hundreds of thousands of American troops fanned out to distant fronts in the name of keeping America and its economy safe.

But on this ever-changing front, the very notion of what would amount to a decisive victory became elusive. By 2010, a battle-weary American public was more than open to a political change that would allow the U.S. to make giant strides towards the goal of energy security by peaceful means.

Yet without the stunning decision of the alter-globalization movement and, in particular, its influential environmental wing to forcefully support Canada's entry into the United States, the project would likely never have seen the light of day.

On both sides of the Canada-U.S. border and from the main capitals of the rest of the world, some of the most influential progressive voices on the planet joined with those of the corporate right to urge Canada to become part of the U.S.

An isolated Quebec

Quebec also threw its weight behind the project once Washington and Ottawa agreed to offer the former province the status of associate state within the new political entity. By so doing, the two governments fulfilled a key requirement of La Francophonie, the international club of French-speaking countries. Its support for the merger had been conditional on the maintenance of a politically autonomous French-language society in North America.

As opposed to the citizens of its former sister provinces, Quebecers therefore did not fully adhere to the American political union. While Quebec has a first row seat on today's pivotal presidential election, its people are nevertheless only spectators of the suspense next door.

In exchange for its political autonomy, Quebec is also bound to conduct its foreign policy on the basis of strict neutrality. It has agreed to only deploy its armed forces abroad as part of peacekeeping missions.

Over the past five years, Quebec troops have become a presence in many regions of Africa, a continent that continues to be neglected by an international community obsessed with the absence of the United States from its ranks.

Besides a framework trade agreement giving it conditional access to the American markets, Quebec has also been granted most of the powers that the former state of Canada exercised at the time it joined the U.S. By then, they did not amount to much.

Quebec opens its doors

Canada had already given up control over its airspace and its ports after the United States unilaterally took over its northern partner's defence. That followed an investigation which revealed that the 2007 terrorist attacks had been masterminded by a cell operating out of St. John's, Nfld.

Under its last Liberal government, Canada adopted the U.S. dollar in a last-ditch effort to breathe life into a domestic economy strangled by the many physical and virtual controls put in place for security purposes by its powerful neighbour. The two countries had also agreed on a joint immigration policy and a common ID card had been issued to their citizens.

The day-to-day governance of Quebec did not change dramatically under its new political status but its social and linguistic make-up have been substantially altered. In exchange for a two-year open door policy between the soon-to-be defunct rest of Canada and Quebec, the latter's share of the Canadian debt was wiped off the books.

Close to four million Canadians from the other provinces took advantage of the grace period to relocate in Quebec, thus increasing its population by 50% almost overnight.

The massive arrival of so many newcomers — most of them fully bilingual but almost all devoid of francophone roots — altered Quebec's political makeup in ways that the negotiators of the agreement had not foreseen.

Drawn by the prospect of maintaining the former Canadian social model, many former charter members of Canada's progressive establishment elected to live out their days in Quebec rather than as American citizens.

Three former leaders of the defunct federal NDP, the entire parliamentary caucus of the federal Green Party, an octogenarian ex-leader of the former Progressive Conservative party of Canada as well as the last two premiers of Ontario all elected to move to Quebec. The latter two opted to relocate after they lost the battle to turn Ontario into a state distinct from Canada in the wake of the decision to make Calgary the capital of the new American state.

Rejoin Canada?

Besides changing the language mix, the transition from province of a defunct federation to associate state of the U.S. has profoundly modified Quebec's political landscape. Mario Dumont, who served as the first president of the new Quebec, could also have been its last native-born head of state for a long time.

Too far to the right for the new critical mass of progressive voters that resulted from the resettlement of so many other Canadians, Dumont's reign did not survive the changed political demography of Quebec.

Devoid of its historical raison d'être, the Parti Quebecois reinvented itself into a centrist and nationalist party along the lines of the former Liberal party of Canada. Under its reconfigured shape, the former sovereigntist party expanded into many new constituencies. In particular it gathered in the new Quebecers arriving from the rest of Canada who use to admire certain sovereigntist leaders from afar during the old sovereigntist-federalist debates.

As a result, the 2017 Quebec presidential election saw the advent of a Saskatchewan-born Pequiste head of state whose first language was English. That election also featured a challenger from a brand new party committed to having Quebec join its former Canadian partner as an American state.

Promoters of this new party are essentially francophone and progressive. They feel that the coming together of Canada and Quebec under a single American roof would allow the latter to leave its marginal status behind and become a full-fledged player on the most important political checkerboard on the planet.

They argue that Quebec, as an associate state operating apart from the United States, will never truly be able to have its voice heard in the concert of nations. Instead, its citizens will be relegated to second-class status under the emerging world order.

The notion of making alliances with the former Canada in order to increase the progressive influence on the rest of America is also central to the goals of the new party.

Finally, some defenders of the French-language feel that it would be easier to maintain a French-speaking environment in Quebec if its anglophone elements had a chance to fan out across the United States, rather than have their horizons limited to the former province.

In 2 017, the party had a marginal impact on the outcome of the vote. It hit a wall in the regions where the new Quebecers who came to the province because of its distinct political status have settled. By and large, the newer anglophone and allophone communities are determined to preserve and protect the autonomy of their chosen port of call.

But today's American presidential vote could have a huge impact on the Quebec debate. If the U.S., under the impetus of progressive Canadian voters, reconciles itself to multilateralism on the international stage, the result would provide a boost to those in Quebec who promote a reunion with the former Canadian federation. They could also bank on a more sympathetic hearing at the White House and count on a more open attitude to language accommodations.

Today's vote could turn the new Canadian Party of Quebec (CPQ) into a serious player in the elections that are stated to take place in the former province next year. If it comes to power, the CPQ is committed to holding a referendum on Quebec seeking full American statehood, alongside the former Canada, before the end of its first mandate.

As opposed to the 2010 Canadian referendum but in line with Quebec tradition, a simple majority would suffice to trigger the negotiations that would lead to the extinguishment of Quebec's so recently acquired special status.

Chantal Hébert is a national affairs writer with the Toronto Star as well as a guest columnist for Le Devoir. She is a weekly participant on the political panel at Issue on CBC's The National.

Canada in 2020 is an initiative of Dominion Institute in association with La Presse, The Toronto Star and the CBC. Visit www.twenty-twenty.ca to read more essays and add you voice to the debate.