Canadians have learned a couple of things about Prime Minister Stephen Harper in the past year or so.

First and most important, he does nothing by accident and everything by design. Second, he'll take risks, confident he can persuade enough people he's right to end up winning.

Both are evident in the federal budget introduced Monday, but to understand his strategy, you need to read two other documents. One is Harper's speech on March 18 to about 5,000 Conservative supporters in the Toronto area after a pre-election boot camp for candidates and workers. The other is Statistics Canada's Portrait of the Canadian Population 2006, released on March 13, that was based on 2006 census data.

The census confirmed that the growth in Canada is not in the cities but with the families in the surrounding suburban communities in large part thanks to immigration. It is Brampton, Vaughan, Whitby, Markham and Richmond Hill around Toronto; St-Basil-le-Grand, Blainville, Mirabel, Terrebonne, Candiac and La Prairie circling Montreal; and Maple Ridge, Langley, Surrey and Port Moody east of Vancouver. Most have grown more than 20 per cent in the past five years – more than four times the national average.

It's a world of Tim Hortons not Starbucks, and right now, the suburbanites elect mostly Liberal, New Democrat and Bloc MPs. Some may even be thinking Green.

Tories take small practical steps

It's these voters Harper challenged his party in his speech in Toronto to capture as supporters. He called them Canadians “in the broad middle . . . the quiet people you don't see on the nightly news.” They're also the voters he needs to satisfy his short- and long-term political objectives.

That's why the second Conservative budget, like last year's first, is full not of large grandiose measures, but small practical steps all aimed squarely at that suburban middle class and their children.

It's a safe bet that no one at Tim Hortons will be talking equalization, the fiscal balance or imbalance. That's all just numbers and debating points for the political classes. Maybe at Starbucks they pretend to understand it or can see how it relates to their daily lives.

Last year, the talk at Tim's was the GST cut, the $100 a month per child under six for child care and tax credits for kids in sports.

This year, the budget offers even more to discuss that relates to the daily lives of all those who live in the growing communities that circle Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver:

• The $2,000 per child tax credit that will produce $310 in tax savings for each child under 18 for almost all families.
• Higher tax deductions for non-working spouses or dependents.
• The increase to $400 in duty-free goods you can bring back when in the U.S. more than 48 hours, as these communities are all within two hours of the border.
• Larger RESP grants and more room for contributions.
• Extending RRSPs to age 71 from the current 69.
• The rebate of up to $2,000 for new flexible fuel and high fuel-efficiency vehicles.
• New taxes of $1,000 to $4,000 on gas guzzlers.
• Payments to scrap pre-1995 high-emission vehicles.

Traditional Conservative fold out in cold

Will all this lead suburbanites and immigrants to abandon past voting habits and back Harper and the Conservatives?

It may not, and that's the risk that accompanies Harper's design, for the budget also leaves some traditional Conservative backers out in the cold. There's not much for those without children or whose children have grown up. They were hoping for an across-the-board tax cut but they didn't get it.

The promised tax exemption for reinvested capital gains is nowhere to be seen, with the finance minister left saying something will happen some time.

There's also nothing here for that breed of Conservative who believes the best government is the one that spends and does least – standing aside to let people get on with their lives as they see fit. They will have to be satisfied with another $9 billion put against the national debt.

Social Conservatives will come up empty in looking for anything in this budget that helps their cause. That could be a campaigning advantage for Harper as the Liberals may have trouble rolling out the ghost of former Ontario premier Mike Harris for one more encore.

However, Harper's eye is really on a longer-term goal. The Conservatives are blessed with an economy that continues to grow and produce tax revenue at an unprecedented rate, giving the government extraordinary flexibility in crafting budgets. He is aware how dramatically Canada is changing as the census demonstrates.

In a political career characterized by reaching goals through slow and steady progress, Harper believes he has a historic opportunity in the suburbs to change the country's voting traditions. The objective is to replace the Liberals as the naturally governing party for generations to come.

He has designed this budget, like the one before it, as a step down that road. Armed with it, Harper believes he will succeed in persuading more and more suburban residents to support his Conservatives whenever the next election is held.

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