With the United Nations Security Council deadlocked on the status of Kosovo, officials from the breakaway Serbian province have said they will press ahead with independence plans.

The troubled, autonomous province, which has an ethnic Albanian majority, has been run by the United Nations from Belgrade since 1999, when NATO air strikes ended a Serbian crackdown on Albanian separatists.

More recently, four months of internationally mediated talks that attempted to clear the way for Kosovo to declare its independence from Serbia ended in stalemate on Dec. 7; and the deadline for a UN resolution on the issue passed on Dec. 10. Belgrade's position is that while Kosovo has ethnic communities distinct from the rest of Serbia, the region continues to be a part of the country.

'Everything depends on how fast and how hard the European Union is prepared to work on the integration of the entire Balkan region into the European Union structures, that's the key to the whole puzzle.'

— Robert Austin

But with UN negotiations at an impasse, the province announced that it would forge ahead with plans to declare independence as early as January.

To help explain how this situation evolved and what happens next, CBCNews.ca spoke with Robert Austin, project co-ordinator at the University of Toronto's Centre for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies.

Why did the Security Council's efforts fail?

In March of this year, former Finnish president Martti Ahtisaari presented a report and a proposal for Kosovo, which created the headaches in the Security Council. The Russians and the Serbs totally rejected it. It created a supervised form of independence for Kosovo, it maintained the international protectorate status, although this time the international protector was shifting from the United Nations to the European Union. I think it's interesting how little people appreciated that the Russians would play hardball over an issue like Kosovo.

At the UN level, the Russians have made it clear they're not going to allow anything through the Security Council that the Serbs don't approve of.

University of Toronto professor Robert Austin (Courtesy Robert Austin)

So, independence is now in Kosovo's hands?

Kosovo doesn't do anything unilaterally. It will work in co-operation with Washington and Brussels. Kosovo will not announce something unless it's assured of some serious international support. Unilateralism isn't really an issue there. It's too small a place and it's too dependent on the international community to go boldly on its own. And Kosovo leaders do want a continued international presence in Kosovo so they have to work with their allies. So they'll play close attention to what signals they get from both important European capitals and Washington. In essence, the solution to the problem is to move on outside the Security Council and pick up the pieces.

Why independence? The Serbs have offered the region its automony within the country.

My position on Kosovo has always been the same, it's that all solutions are bad and it's a question of choosing the least bad. And the qualified independence, or the supervised independence, is the only solution that provides us with a way forward.

I'm hoping the European Union mission is much more rigorous in promoting the democratization of Kosovo life and that it's a stricter form of authority than the UN mission has been. It sounds like a cliche by now but the future for the region is entirely through integration in European institutions, and also NATO.

And that's why the Ahtisaari proposal is ostensibly an exercise in delay, it establishes international control through the EU in the hopes that in five, six, seven years these issues have simmered down enough and that integration is far enough along that the problem actually disappears. That might be naive, but that's the best we have right now.

On Dec. 10, officials said the country would begin the independence process as soon as January. Why the apparent rush for independence?

The Kosovars need to show something to their people because they've been sitting in a period of limbo, it's going to be nine years. It's an extremely unfortunate position to force people to live in, which is permanent limbo. You don't know what state you belong to, you don't have a passport that's accepted widely. They need to move on something in the new year, I think leaving it to the spring is too much of a delay. Again, they're not going to act without some support from European capitals and the United States. They're not in a position to do that.

What's the process for becoming an independent state?

It's a complicated legal process. The United Nations mission is coming to an end and the Ahtisaari proposal established the basis for a new, European Union-led mission under the rubric of international civilian office, where there would be European Union representatives who would work in co-operation with the local institutions.

The key to getting that through was a UN Security Council resolution that would establish the legal basis for this to happen, but now since that proposal isn't going to go through the Security Council, the Europeans and the United States have to decide, do they want to do it on their own? Which is, Kosovo declares independence and then accumulates some recognition.

But, you know, keep in mind that it will be an independent state but under extreme restrictions by the international community. Because I envision that even with the declaration of independence, the terms laid out in the Ahtisaari proposal will be accepted, because that's the only game in town for Kosovo right now.

What kind of restrictions could we expect?

It has tremendous qualified majority voting. The Ahtisaari document is an exercise in creating an asymmetric state, which provides tremendous authority to international civilian representatives, like you see in Bosnia for example, and it provides tremendous guarantees for the preservation of minority rights in Kosovo. It is a document designed, ostensibly, to satisfy the concerns of the Serb minority in Kosovo. It puts tremendous power in the hands of the minority communities. It actually provides minority rights on a level that no other state has ever provided, in fact.

'For the European Union, the Balkans is like Iraq for the United States. They have to make this their priority, which means tremendous financial resources have to be applied there, because you cannot have a black hole of unstable states on your border.'

— Robert Austin

Is the Kosovo government willing to accept such international restrictions?

The Albanians have said, even without its guarantee by the Security Council, that they would be willing to implement it. The Albanians have accepted the Ahtisaari proposal with all its restrictions on the very independence of Kosovo.

How would Kosovo's independence affect the Balkans?

This is the big concern, that it could divide the region. Because some states have been decidedly in favour of Kosovo's independence, and some have not. It remains to be seen how Serbia will react with states that recognize [it as a state]. But the majority of states in the region have already made it clear that they will recognize Kosovo's independence.

What effects would independence have within the country?

The biggest concern is what will happen in the areas dominated by the Serb minority, which is primarily northern Kosovo. What path will those people choose when confronted with the declaration of independence?

How can we expect nations to react to a declaration of independence?

You can expect the United States to recognize, you can expect a number of European countries to recognize, actually the majority of European Union states, and there will be a bunch of states that don't recognize it, but that's life. And then, the European Union will have the legal basis more or less to establish its civilian office in Kosovo and take that mandate from the United Nations.

Beyond Serbia and Russia, who can we expect not to recognize an independent Kosovo?

Canada has its own dilemma with separatist movements. Canada is not in a position to act outside the Security Council resolutions. Canada accepts the Ahtisaari proposal, but it won't accept a solution that's imposed outside the Security Council.

Others include Greece, Slovakia and in Europe, possibly Spain. It's really hard to predict. The Europeans are going to spend the next few weeks trying to muster some unanimity, but at the end of the day, as you know, the European Union doesn't recognize a state, it's individual countries that decide. The European Union doesn't have a mechanism to say, OK, we have 27 members and we officially acknowledge, they can't. They have a co-ordinator of foreign policy, but Brussels cannot decide for 27 member states what to do. These member states have to take their own decisions.

If an independent Kosovo gains recognition, what can we expect within a year?

We can expect the continued protectorate status to be there, but this time run by the European Union, and an extremely tense relationship between Kosovo and Serbia. And we also need to see some serious carrots given to Serbia from the European Union to make this bitter pill seem a little bit less bitter, because until now I don't think Serbia's been given a lot.

What about in five years time?

Everything depends on how fast and how hard the European Union is prepared to work on the integration of the entire Balkan region into the European Union structures, that's the key to the whole puzzle. For the European Union, the Balkans is like Iraq for the United States. They have to make this their priority, which means tremendous financial resources have to be applied there, because you cannot have a black hole of unstable states on your border. And, after all, these are European countries.

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