Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs

Glenn Close offers a timid approximation of a man in Albert Nobbs. (Roadside Attractions/Associated Press) Glenn Close plays a woman living as a man in 19th century Ireland -- the Albert Nobbs of the title. Hollywood loves actors who play against type -- see Tom Hanks in Philadelphia and Hilary Swank in Boys Don't Cry. But the question is whether anyone would believe Close as a man. Nobbs is a colourless, apparently passionless, individual: a waiter accustomed to blending into the background when important people enter a room.

Close does a good job of rendering this timid creature, but once you've seen her distinctive cheekbones emerge from the makeup, it's difficult to believe that anyone would be fooled. She suffers, by comparison, with supporting actress nominee Janet McTeer, whose turn as Hubert Page -- another woman moving through the world in men's clothing -- is much more convincing. It's no wonder a naive young maid is puzzled by Nobbs' attentions. Though she's got a great role on TV's Damages, Close seems past her romantic lead days. Previously, she's earned two Academy Award nominations for best supporting actress, for The Natural and The World According to Garp, and once for best actress in Dangerous Liaisons. Though she's without a win, I don't think this is her year.

Viola Davis, The Help

Viola Davis invests her role with a living, breathing spirit. (Disney Dreamworks II/Associated Press) The Help is a soap opera, populated by cardboard cutouts of people, and is one of the most popular movies to make it into the Oscar race. That said, Viola Davis is a portrait of complexity as Aibileen Clark, the long-serving maid who has raised 17 children for their white mothers in 1960s Jackson, Miss. Especially moving is the dignity and strength of character her character displays as she stands up to white oppression by sharing her story with Skeeter, the young Caucasian woman who wants to write about the lives of black maids. It would have been easy to overplay the role with such a flabby script, but Davis conveys a change of heart with nothing stronger than a clutched purse and a subtle change of expression.

As an actress, she doesn't have a high Hollywood profile -- just a few performances, including Solaris, The United States of Tara and Doubt, where she was magnificent in a very small role. However, she has long been a powerhouse of the New York stage, earning multiple Tony and Drama Desk Awards. Then, there's the question of colour: the last black woman to win best actress was Halle Berry in 2001. Davis's Golden Globe win may signal it's time to choose a talented black woman as well as reward a film that has captured hearts in the rest of America.

Rooney Mara, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Rooney Mara gives a fresh take on Lisbeth Salander (Sony, Columbia Pictures/Associated Press) It's amazing that anyone could make an impression as the titular girl with the dragon tattoo after Noomi Rapace's indelible performance in the original Swedish film. But Rooney Mara, a virtual unknown with only a small role in The Social Network to her credit, manages to give nuance to a character we think we already know. She is more vulnerable and marginally less anti-social as Rapace's Lisbeth Salander. And like her predecessor, Rooney wears silence well. David Fincher's masterful English-language remake also gives us plenty of time to gaze at Daniel Craig in gloomy Swedish settings. The decision not to cast some buxom Hollywood beauty as Lisbeth came as a relief to lovers of Stieg Larsson's novels, but it's hard to separate Mara's performance from Fincher's directing. And if Rapace didn't merit even a nomination for her three stints as Lisbeth, how could anyone give Mara the Oscar?

Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

Meryl Streep transforms into Maggie Thatcher in The Iron Lady. (Weinstein Co./Associated Press) Meryl Streep is truly a wizard: it took about three seconds for her to convince me she was Margaret Thatcher in this biopic of the former British prime minister. She's got the emphatic speech patterns right and is equally effective both as the elderly Thatcher suffering from dementia and as the decisive prime minister while in office. The performance is magnificent, but in some respects, the script fails her.

There is nothing in this film to tell us why Thatcher was so uncompromising -- often to the point of foolishness, as seen in the Falklands and poll tax issues. Why is she so harsh and patronizing to members of her own cabinet, including the unfortunate Geoffrey Howe (played by Anthony Head)? Many people in traditionally liberal Hollywood will remember the Thatcher years -- and her polarizing personality -- well and will get angry all over again about seeing parts of Britain with 35 per cent unemployment. This could well work against Streep, a two-time Oscar-winner for Kramer vs. Kramer and Sophie's Choice. On the other hand, it's been awhile: she was nominated 14 times for best actress and another three for best supporting actress, with her last win back in 1982.

Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn

Michelle Williams as Marilyn Monroe in the bath (Weinstein Co./Associated Press) Michelle Williams has a personal story Hollywood should love. She suffered the tragic loss of the father of her child -- Heath Ledger -- and then re-emerged publicly as a dedicated mother. She engaged in extreme method acting for her marital breakdown film Blue Valentine, reputedly moving in with co-star Ryan Gosling so they could better convey a married couple. Here she plays Marilyn Monroe, skillfully portraying the onscreen magnetism of the sex-pot actress as well as the winsome and dependent qualities that pulled so many men into her orbit. Williams masters Marilyn's way of body language, her breathy voice and her quicksilver intelligence.

The audience knows the tragedy that is to come and Williams is careful to allow an undercurrent of sadness to run below her surface persona. She previously earned a best supporting actress Oscar nomination for Brokeback Mountain and a best actress one for Blue Valentine. Her skill means she is destined for great things -- perhaps greater than this rather slight movie. If she doesn't win this year, there will be other chances.

Bérénice Bejo, The Artist

Bérénice Bejo as Peppy Miller. (Weinstein Co./Associated Press) Bérénice Bejo is a young actress smitten with Jean Dujardin's leading man in the charming silent movie The Artist. Playing an actress in silent films and early talkies during the 1920s and early 1930s, she's required to perform in the hammy, mugging-for-the-camera style of the day. Since we hear her voice only once, Bejo has earned this nomination for her talent for physical comedy and the natural facial expressions that convey her true feelings. Yet for modern movie-goers, it's hard to fully judge a performance when the actress never speaks. That hasn't stopped co-star Dujardin from snapping up Golden Globe and BAFTA acting honours. Much will depend on the depth of Hollywood's love for this homage to 1920s silent film.

Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs

Janet McTeer as Hubert Page. (Roadside Attractions/Associated Press) Janet McTeer is a statuesque British actress who made her name on the West End stage and in costume dramas. She hasn't done much in Hollywood -- an episode of Damages and Terry Gilliam's Tideland come to mind. So, she's a revelation as Hubert Page in Albert Nobbs. Here is a woman who could truly pass as a man. It's not just that her facial features are strong, she also moves and stands like a man and manages male inflections when speaking. At the same time, she conveys a complex and compassionate character who is very tender in her lesbian relationship with Cathleen (Bronagh Gallagher). She has my vote to win.

Jessica Chastain, The Help

Jessica Chastain plays Celia Foote. (Disney Dreamworks II/Associated Press) Jessica Chastain was everywhere this year, from The Tree of Life to Wilde Salome to Coriolanus and Take Shelter. Each of those roles is different from the other, so it's difficult to imagine that The Help (see "cardboard cutouts" above) is her best performance. In the civil rights era drama, she plays a wealthy man's trashy wife, who is ostracized by the local mavens. She is a sweet, dumb-blonde bunny with a tragic edge (multiple miscarriages). While Chastain definitely has onscreen magnetism, this role doesn't give her the latitude to showcase her acting talent.

Octavia Spencer, The Help

Octavia Spencer as Minny Jackson. (Disney Dreamworks II/Associated Press) Octavia Spencer plays Minny, the maid who serves pie made from excrement to her former employer in The Help. Everyone loves that scene because the victim is the snobbish and manipulative Hilly Holbrook (Bryce Dallas Howard), who makes life miserable for both the black and white citizens of Jackson, Miss. Minny is broadly drawn -- a sassy woman who loves to speak her mind -- but is under the thumb of an abusive man. Spencer's real acting here is her ability to transform from a radiant, youthful woman into one who looks beaten down by life.

Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids

Melissa McCarthy as Megan. (Universal Pictures/Associated Press) Melissa McCarthy is the token comedian in the mix this year and, let's face it, the Academy Awards have not been generous with comedy. Laugh-out-loud comedies seldom get best-picture nominations, let alone trophies. McCarthy's role in Bridesmaids is certainly boundary-pushing, involving gross-out humour and a sexual avidity not generally permitted to fat women onscreen. It was a revelation to viewers that women could offer the kind of ribald comedy associated with Judd Apatow movies and it was refreshing to rip on the otherwise sacrosanct subject of weddings.

Bridesmaids had a lot of box-office appeal last summer, but the comedians who win best-actress honours tend to be rom-com heroines like Barbra Streisand in Funny Girl or Diane Keaton in Annie Hall rather than the ground-breakers. Still, McCarthy's Emmy win also was a surprise, as was this nomination, so you never know.