Oscar winners and might-have-beens

A scene from The Social Network (Merrick Morton/Columbia Tristar)

On Sunday, the curtains go up on the big show. For all of you wading into the Oscar pools, here's a look at who will walk away with the golden boy, and who, in a just world, should do so...

 

BEST PICTURE

Will win: The King's Speech

Should win:  The Social Network. Simply a finer brand of filmmaking. Jesse Eisenberg's razor-sharp role as Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and David Fincher's unobtrusive direction makes The Social Network the picture of the year.

 

BEST ACTOR

Will win: Colin Firth

Should win: Although I'm tempted by Eisenberg's ice-cold performance, he can't compete with the exhausting agony of Javier Bardem in Biutiful. Difficult to watch, impossible to forget.

 

BEST ACTRESS

Will win: Natalie Portman

Should win: Michelle Williams for her searing portrait of a sputtering marriage in Blue Valentine. Raw and revealing, it puts Portman's deranged dancer to shame.

 

BEST DIRECTOR

Will win: David Fincher

Should win: David Fincher, although it would have been nice to throw Christopher Nolan a nomination for Inception.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Christian Bale

Should win: Christian Bale

 

Melissa Leo should win best supporting actress. (Associated Press)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win: Melissa Leo

Should win: Although Amy Adams deserves notice for putting her cutesy-pie image behind her, it's impossible to ignore the arrival of True Grit's Hailee Steinfeld, the 14-year-old who made the Coen Bros' script sing.

 

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Will win: Toy Story 3

Should win: How to Train Your Dragon, the best boy-and-his-dog film we've seen in years, with excellent voice work by Jay Baruchel and Craig Ferguson.

 

ART DIRECTION

Will win: The King's Speech

Should win: Inception, for its near-future art-deco glam.

 

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will win: Roger Deakins for True Grit

Should win:  Roger Deakins

 

COSTUME DESIGN

Will win: The King's Speech

Should win: The King's Speech. Lionel Logue's tweed was fantastic.

 

FILM EDITING

Will win: The Social Network

Should win: 127 Hours, edited with extra adrenaline, it recalls Danny Boyle's Trainspotting style.

 

MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

Will win: The King's Speech

Should win: Inception for Hans Zimmer's excellent work, creating the aural scaffolding to support Nolan's wild ride.

 

WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: The Social Network

Should win: The Social Network 

 

WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: The King's Speech

Should win:  While I admire the ambition of Inception in this regard, The King's Speech is a heck of story, well told. (We'll leave the questions of accuracy for another day.)

-- Eli Glasner