Ten Ridings to Watch, Version 2.0
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Monday, September 18, 2006 | 12:15 PM ET
By Jacques Poitras
After four weeks of interviews, observations, buzz and blog comments, here is my final list of 10 ridings to watch tonight:
1. Bathurst. This has been a safe Liberal seat for a very long time, but Conservative Nancy MacKay came very close to beating Brian Kenney last time. A consensus has emerged among party organizers and people commenting on this blog that it will be close again this time.
2. Tracadie-Sheila. Liberal Serge Rousselle is running for the Liberals again in the hopes that the retirement of popular Tory Elvy Robichaud will allow this seat to move back into the Liberal column. But Robichaud has been campaigning hard for his former assistant, Claude Landry.
3. Miramichi-Bay du Vin. This riding has been held for two terms by Conservative Michael (Tanker) Malley, whose defection, acclamation as Speaker and return to the PC caucus set in motion much of this spring's political drama. Malley's voters finally get to declare what they think at the polls today.
4. Southwest Miramichi. Liberal Rick Brewer is facing a strong challenge from Brent Taylor, the first former MLA from the Confederation of Regions party to seek office again as a PC.
5. Moncton West. This riding is a battle of cabinet ministers, with Conservative Joan MacAlpine-Stiles battling a former Liberal cabinet minister, Gene Devereaux, who is attempting a political comeback in a riding other than the one he held before.
6. Quispamsis. Liberals believed it would be easy to knock off Brenda Fowlie, given her resignation from cabinet last year after she violated privacy rules. But the tight campaign has made it impossible to write her off. Fowlie only won by 19 votes last time and this one could be close again.
7. Fundy-River Valley. Formerly known as Grand Bay-Westfield, this riding is considered the Liberals' best chance of gaining a seat from the Conservatives after the retirement of three-term MLA Milt Sherwood. But nothing is certain until the ballots are counted.
8. Fredericton-Lincoln. NDP Leader Allison Brewer, a political rookie, hopes to get into the legislature by winning here, but she's up against popular former Liberal cabinet minister Greg Byrne. The chance of a vote split benefiting PC candidate William Forestall makes this one of the few potentially three-way races in the province.
9. Woodstock. Liberal candidate Art Slipp, a town councillor in Woodstock, is aiming to unseat cabinet minister David Alward. The government decision to close the Woodstock hospital in favour of a new facility outside the town will help Slipp within the town, but Alward may squeak back in thanks to voters in outlying areas.
10. Restigouche-la-Vallée. This is a new riding created from a merger of two constituencies. As a result, it features two incumbent MLAs, Conservative Percy Mockler and Liberal Burt Paulin. This will be an all-out organizational battle throughout the day.
Three other ridings to watch, for one particular reason, are Tantramar, Miramichi Bay-Neguac and Caraquet. There's been some last-minute buzz that in each of these ridings, the NDP could – could – do well enough to deprive the Liberals of victory and hand these ridings to the Conservatives. In a close election, that could swing the final result.Campaign Trail »
About the Author
Jacques Poitras is CBC Radio's provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick. He has reported on the province's politics for The Current, The House, Don Newman's Politics, and other CBC and Radio-Canada programs. He is also the author of The Right Fight: Bernard Lord and the Conservative Dilemma, published by Goose Lane Editions.
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