A final post: The battle over 'not that bad'
Comments (2)
Tuesday, September 19, 2006 | 04:00 PM ET
By Jacques Poitras
The election’s over and New Brunswick is preparing for the swearing-in of the Liberal government of Shawn Graham, something that seemed all but assured last fall, less than certain in the spring, questionable in August and suddenly possible again in the last two weeks.
There’s a compelling argument that the Liberal victory can be attributed to the NDP collapse. My colleague Bob Jones will have a piece on TV tonight looking at how the decline in NDP votes in three key ridings helped the Liberals – and how the Tories might have won them had Elizabeth Weir remained as leader rather than accepting an appointment from Bernard Lord last fall.
There will be plenty of discussion about the slight edge won by the Conservatives in the popular vote, and whether that underscores the need for some sort of proportional voting. The fact is that the Liberals won more seats under the rules that everyone understood heading into the campaign. Compared to 2003, the Liberals just about “caught up” with the Tories in the popular vote – they gained more from the NDP than the Conservatives did.
Why? I wonder if it might have been two different standards of what constitutes “not that bad.”
A Liberal insider told me early in the campaign that all Shawn Graham had to do was appear “not that bad.” The Tories had raised so many questions about his capabilities that Graham merely needed to come off better than expected to impress voters. Though most pundits declared Lord the winner of the English-language debate on CBC, I couldn’t help thinking that Graham might have hit the “not that bad” threshold.
Conversely, Bernard Lord had to defend the Tory record after more than seven years in power. On the surface, things have been “not that bad” in New Brunswick: A seemingly decent job-creation record, a lower unemployment rate, no recession and so on. That was reflected in generally high satisfaction rates in the polls. But when Conservatives made it sound like nirvana that only they could deliver – one candidate in Saint John actually referred to it as “Bernard Lord’s golden age” – they may have reminded voters that the “not that bad” reality didn’t match the rhetoric.
The Tories may have set the bar so high for themselves that their “not that bad” record fell short – and they may have set it so low for Shawn Graham that his “not that bad” was just good enough to earn him the right number of votes in the right places.
As for the NDP, federal MP Yvon Godin passed on the chance to run for the leadership last time because the party had so much leverage in Ottawa over Paul Martin’s minority government. Since then, the party has gained more federal seats but lost all its influence, so Godin may think twice when he’s courted again.
This will be the last post to the Campaign Trail election blog, the CBC’s first-ever election blog. Thanks to all who posted comments: The level of interest was certainly noticed by the CBC folks who will decide what direction we take in the future with blogs. The heated debate over whether to allow anonymous comments was also valuable, and I want to thank the mysterious Spinks for taking on what seemed like the role of "Official Opposition.” Sometimes his blog looked like it was a blog about this blog, and we thank him for the traffic sent this way. We did pay attention to his feedback and that of other pro-anonymity bloggers. Finally, thanks to Deb Nobes, Mary-Pat Schutta, Gary Graves, as well as Marlene Habib, Joan Ramsay and the rest of the Copy Desk crew.
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About the Author
Jacques Poitras is CBC Radio's provincial affairs reporter in New Brunswick. He has reported on the province's politics for The Current, The House, Don Newman's Politics, and other CBC and Radio-Canada programs. He is also the author of The Right Fight: Bernard Lord and the Conservative Dilemma, published by Goose Lane Editions.
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Comments (2)
Charles LeBlanc
Fredericton
Well Jacques, I must admit that you did a good job and you found out first hand what being a blogger is all about?
Blogging is the way of the future and it’s a great way to share your views on the information highway.
The Irvings owns all the major newspapers in this Province and they remove off the air the truly only talk show in New Brunswick.
CFBC should had never remove Talk of the Town from the air waves.
Every province in Canada has talk shows but none in New Brunswick.
There’s no where to turn in bringing certain concern issues to the public eye beside blogging.
I’m curious to know the reason that bloggers insist to remain anonymous?
As long as they moderate the comment section and speaks the truth? What are they worried about?
You found out last summer Jacques how valuable bloggers are?
When CBC locked you out, you turn to blogging to spread the word and it worked out pretty good.
I’m not certain if you can yourself a true blogger Jacques because you work for CBC and your views on certain issues could put you in trouble.
So? Is this the end for Jacques Poitras as a blogger?
I don’t think so but you sure can open a blog under anonymous!!!!.....lol but I don’t believe you would be happy.
Bon travail Jacques et Bonne chance dans ton future comme un blogger!!!
http://www.oldmaison.blogspot.com/
Posted September 19, 2006 05:59 PM
Peter Kincaid
Fredericton
I think the whole "not that bad" scenario got kick started by the Liberals initial thrust about the orimulsion deal. This was Bernard Lord's achilles heal - not enough to kill him but enough to knock him down and so people could have a serious look at Shawn Graham. When the news came out that the insurance companies were making good money off of Lord's reforms the theme became more "not that good" in terms of Bernard Lord. Bernard Lord should have waited until next year when the orimulsion blunder would have been too much out of people's mind to resonate. He called it now and the whole "not that good" - "not that bad" review began.
When the comparisons were being made Shawn Graham was boosted by the fact that he was positive about our future while Bernard Lord did not have the same positive outlook. This was more a good shot that helped finish it. "Time for a positive change" won over "steady it goes."
I don't think the post given by Bernard Lord to Elizabeth Weir did the NDP in. She is a respected leader but was around for a long time so they weren't going to fare a whole lot better with her again. The real mistake was made partly by the choice made by the NDP for their leader but more by her team being too "two issue" focused and unorganized. NDP fortunes are dropping because they are losing focus of traditional NDP plank like labour, poverty, health and environment. If they had a more experienced leader and had stayed focused they would have fared better. If they would have got organized and fielded a full selection of local candidates the Liberals would not have benefited.
The popular vote angle is a whine and non issue in this case. We are not talking about a large margin here but fractions of 47%. This is clearly the result of the Conservatives doing much better in one area - Moncton.
This is my view of things. What do I know - I'm just an average Joe from a small village called Rexton.
Thanks for running a wonderful blog! I enjoyed it.
Posted September 19, 2006 05:27 PM