Alberta's oilsands have recently attracted more attention from the United States than the province would probably like.
In its March issue, the influential National Geographic magazine devoted a lengthy feature to the Canadian oilpatch and the nasty effects squeezing oil from tar sands has had on the province's northern landscape.
On numerous occasions, Barack Obama has vowed to break the U.S.'s addiction to "dirty, dwindling and dangerously expensive" oil, which many believe includes the oil from the oilsands. Extracting oil from the tar sands creates, by one estimate, 20 per cent more emissions of carbon dioxide (a key greenhouse gas) than production of conventional petroleum.
In his first speech to Congress, Obama said he has asked lawmakers to send him legislation that places a market-based cap on carbon pollution and drives the production of more renewable energy in America. What that will mean for the Alberta oilsands remains unclear.
Oilpatch players chop spending
While environmental concerns about the Alberta oilsands build in the U.S., the industry faces so many pressing economic challenges that it's safe to say the boom is over, says BMO Capital Markets economist Douglas Porter. In recent months, the global recession and credit crunch have made it hard for companies to raise money for future capital investments. Plummeting oil prices, which reached $147 US a barrel last July but now hover around $45 US a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, have forced firms to delay or shelve projects worth billions.
Capital spending plans in the Alberta oilsands are expected to total $13.2 billion in 2009, nearly one-third less than in 2008, according to Statistics Canada. The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) already revised its 2009 forecast three times to $10 billion from an initial forecast of $20 billion.
Major oilpatch operators have revised their own capital budgets, including Canada's oldest oilsands operator, Suncor Energy Inc., which recently halved its investment spending to $3 billion from a previous $6 billion. That means construction of its new Voyageur upgrader facility and completion of its Firebag in-situ bitumen project are on hold, with no date set for when construction will resume. Many analysts say future oilsands projects require oil prices of between $80 US and $100 US a barrel to be profitable.
Last month, Petro-Canada and its two major partners, Teck Cominco Ltd. and UTS Energy Corp., announced they will hold off on the proposed $24 billion Fort Hills oilsands project in northern Alberta until commodity prices and financial markets strengthen.
Last October, Nexen Inc. and partner OPTI Canada Inc. decided to delay expanding their Long Lake operation in northern Alberta's Athabasca oilsands region because the credit crunch has made it difficult to raise money in the stock market. BA Energy Inc. dropped altogether its plans for a $4-billion upgrader facility near Edmonton before filing for bankruptcy protection last December.
Existing operations still profitable
The cuts in capital spending have also affected oilpatch workers, particularly those on the drilling and construction side. Nair Bailey, a Calgary recruiter, said that engineers laid off in recent months have reached 2,500, if not more.
Last month, Flint Energy Services Ltd. said the decision by its client, Suncor, to postpone a project would result in an immediate layoff of construction workers. At the same time, Steelmaker Evraz Group SA, which produces plates and pipes for the oilpatch, announced it would cut 400 positions at its Alberta and Saskatchewan facilities. The unemployed also can no longer job hunt via the City-TV recruitment program Alberta's Best is Hiring, which was pulled off the air last month.
The collapse in energy prices also has taken the steam out of Alberta's once-booming economy. On Feb. 25, the province cut its revenue estimate for fiscal 2008-09 by $4.5 billion to $35.6 billion, in part because of a $2.3 billion drop in resource revenue. Economists now predict that Alberta will record a budget deficit, the province's first one since 1986.
But it's not all doom and gloom for Alberta's oilpatch. There is still ongoing work for operators and several existing operations are still profitable at current oil prices. While many of them have postponed new projects, others are still going forward with their expansions, and almost all workers continue to be employed. In fact, oilpatch operators are expected to increase production to two million barrels of oil a day by 2013 — from 1.2 million barrels a day this year — according to preliminary projections from CAPP. And the appetite for oil shows no sign of diminishing any time soon.
"The times have changed, but the scope has not," CAPP spokesman Travis Davies says.
