5/12/2003, 12:03 p.m.

Tories out, Grits in?

As Louise Charette points out in her May 9 Analysis column, the Conservatives have placed themselves in a difficult spot. In the past two elections they displayed an unfortunate inability to stay on the sunny side of the law, and some of their nomination meetings in this election show the same disrespect for due process.

Murray's hiring of Taras Sokolyk, and the means he used to do so, also show that the Tories have not learned their lesson. Regardless of the wisdom or practicality of their campaign platform, therefore, they have shown themselves to be unworthy of support.

People who love democracy cannot endorse candidates or parties who do not respect democratic process and the supremacy of law.

Combine this history with a campaign that seems so far to have borrowed heavily from Stockwell Day's 2000 federal campaign, factor in their debt load, and the prospects look disastrous for the PCs.

There are, of course, "yellow dog" Tory supporters who would vote for Caligula if he were to run under the banner, but it is doubtful if this constituency is large enough to elect more than a few Tory members. Once the dust settles, it is quite possible that the provincial PC caucus will resemble the one that Kim Campbell delivered federally in 1993.

The question then arises: who is the government-in-waiting likely to be after this election?

The one-seat party in the past legislature, the Liberals. The Liberals would be more appealing to disenchanted voters who supported the PCs last time than would the NDP. Similarly, disenchanted NDP voters would likely find it easier to vote Liberal than Progressive Conservative.

This dynamic served Sharon Carstairs well in her second campaign as Liberal leader. She couldn't gather enough support to vault her from Leader of the Opposition to the Premier's chair, but with a good showing in this election, Gerrard might parlay that success into power in the next election.

If voters who oppose the NDP are smart, therefore, they will vote Liberal this time, and hope that in the next election the Liberals show that they deserve a greater mandate.

If the NDP are smart, they will show some willingness to return to their traditional values during this campaign, to prevent erosion to the Liberals.

And the Conservatives? If they are smart, they will spend their time in the penalty box reflecting on their past transgressions.

Kevin Longfield