A little more than a year after being saved from the wreckage heap by a massive bailout from the U.S. and Canadian governments, General Motors Co. is hoping to shine again.

The iconic Detroit automaker is gearing up to sell a stake in itself to investors in a public stock offering, part of an effort to lose the “Government Motors” nickname earned after the rescue put the company in the control of the U.S. government, with a 61% stake, with smaller stakes by the Canadian and Ontario governments.

Wall Street analysts and industry observers said the shares might zoom, fueled by signs the company is headed in the right direction after spending the past two years struggling to turn itself around.

They cautioned, however, that a newly listed GM stock could just as easily crash and burn, particularly if the economic recovery looks like it might stumble and put a fresh dent in consumer demand for new cars and trucks.

“It’s an economic play,” said Jason A. Smith of investment research firm Value Line in New York. “If GM is picking up sales [as the economy recovers], that would be enough for people to buy these shares. It’s an American staple in a very high-profile industry.”

With signs the U.S. economy might be dipping into another recession, however, buying GM shares would be far from a safe bet, analysts said.

Beyond the uncertainty about the economy, not much is known about the Detroit automaker’s plans for its initial public offering.

Talk floated recently that the IPO could reach US$70-billion, making it by far the largest in U.S. history, ahead of current record-holder Visa Inc., which went public in 2008 and garnered a total of US$19-billion from investors.

Such a huge offering from GM would allow the U.S. government to fully exit the 61% stake it took in the automaker in exchange for a US$50-billion loan. The Canadian government, too, would be able to cash out of the roughly 12% stake it got for putting US$9-billion into the company to help keep assembly plants north of the border running.

Now, however, with the economy sputtering and the IPO market tough, it looks as though GM is contemplating a much smaller offering, perhaps selling only as little as 20% of itself in hopes of raising as much as US$16-billion.

Jim Flaherty, Canada’s Finance Minister, who held talks with GM executives this week, said Friday the government is mulling whether to participate in the IPO.

Mr. Flaherty said he expects GM shares to be listed in Toronto, as well as New York, once the company goes public again.

GM, which has dropped to the No. 2 global automaker slot behind Toyota Corp., was expected to file the necessary offering documents with the U.S.

Securities and Exchange Commission Friday but that’s reportedly been delayed until next week as GM adds in the possible risk associated with a change in leadership after the company announced on Thursday that interim chief executive Ed Whitacre is stepping down and will be replaced by board member and private-equity executive Dan Akerson beginning next month.

The documents aren’t expected to contain any information on the number of shares GM is offering or the price it is hoping to fetch for them — two factors prospective investors are eager to learn.

“There’s enough buzz around this IPO that it will stir interest, but it depends on how they price it,” said Mr. Smith of Value Line. “I would like to see more information.”

Another question mark is the timing of the IPO.

“There is intense political pressure by the Obama administration to get this done prior to the mid-term elections so he can claim credit for taking this off the books,” said Dan Schwartz, research associate with IPO Boutique in Tampa, Fla., which advises investors on IPOs.

An IPO is expected sometime in November or December, with several follow-on offerings over the next few years, similar to General Electric Co.’s spinoff of insurance division Genworth Financial Inc. starting in 2004.

Many industry observers worry that the timing is too soon.

Mr. Schwartz noted that more than a quarter of IPOs have been pulled this year because of unfavourable market conditions.

Meanwhile, around two-thirds of the companies that have gone public this year ended up trading below their initial offering prices, according to data from Greenwich, Conn.-based Renaissance Capital.

At the same time, GM has posted only two consecutive quarters of profits, including a US$.1.3-billion gain for the second quarter announced on Thursday, after reporting tens of billions of dollars in losses last year.

“It’s too early,” said George Magliano, an auto analyst with IHS Global Insight.

“The question is, if they rush the IPO will they get the price they want. I’m not sure if the environment is right yet. Is the economy weakening again?”

But it also is important for GM to get out from under government control, Mr. Magliano said.

“The feeling is as long as the government owns GM, its market share and sales are going to be negatively impacted. There’s no easy answer whether the company should do the IPO now. Nobody is going to know until after the fact.”

GM, like its Detroit rivals Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC, also has longer-term issues to contend with, in particular the high costs of having a heavily unionized workforce and billions in pension liabilities.

“The problem with U.S. carmakers is that they continue to be dominated by unionized labour, which hurts their ability to perform competitively,” said Rob Enderle, principal analyst at the Enderle Group, a research firm in Santa Clara, Calif.

The load has been lightened with major concessions from unions as GM and Chrysler stumbled into bankruptcy last year, he said. “But if the companies start making money again, that pressure is going to be put back on. The unions still have an excessive amount of control.”

Still, GM’s IPO could end up an attractive one for investors, Mr. Enderle said . “GM is in a lot better shape than it was going into this disaster. We don’t have an offer price yet, but it could be a bargain and have upside.”

Financial Post

jwhitman@nationalpost