Canada's recovery weaker than expected
Last Updated: Wednesday, December 23, 2009 | 12:01 PM EST
Financial Post
OTTAWA -- Canada’s economy rose 0.2% in October, the second straight monthly gain, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday, but growth was at a weaker pace than expected.
Analysts were expecting a 0.3% advance during the month, following an unrevised 0.4% gain in September.
“Production increased in most major sectors, as was the case in September,” the federal agency said. “A significantly higher level of activity for real estate agents and brokers provided the largest contribution to the . . . gain in service industries. There were also increases in retail and wholesale trade as well as in some tourism-related industries.”
The existing homes market jumped 7.2% as sales “grew significantly in several parts of the country,” the agency said.
Construction activity was up 0.1% during the month.
Meanwhile, mining and oil and gas extraction was down 0.4%, while the finance and insurance sector declined 0.7%.
“Lower volume of trading on the stock markets led to a decline in activity by securities traders,” Statistics Canada said. “To a lesser extent, banking and insurance services also declined. However, an increase in residential mortgage loan activity was recorded, on the strength of the home resale market.”
Douglas Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said “this is a classic glass-half-full/half-empty report.”
“The half-full portion is that the economy has finally managed to churn out back-to-back growth months for the first time since late 2007, and is emerging from the recession. The half-empty portion is that the recovery remains lacklustre, at best, with GDP continuing to offer mostly surprises on the low side.”
The Canadian economy edged up 0.4% in the third quarter of 2009 — marking the official end to a recession that lasted for three consecutive quarters. The Bank of Canada is now forecasting 3.3% expansion in the final three months of this year and 3% growth in 2010.
“While the pace of economic growth in October was slightly below the market’s expectation, the report does suggest that Canadian economic activity is beginning to pick up steam,” said Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities.
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