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THE fifth estate: Hot Air
The Canadian Debate> Printer Version

Broadcast December 4, 2002

KYOTO 1997
In December 1997 thousands of delegates from 160 countries came together to hammer out a plan to stop global warming. Their goal was to cut back the greenhouse gases that human beings were pumping into the atmosphere - dramatically. It was a historic moment - the culmination of almost half a century of studying the impact of manmade emission on the environment. And Kyoto's mandate was to find a solution to global warming once and for all - and come up with a plan that would have obligations and consequences for everyone. Many people there believed that they were saving the world. (Read more CBC News Online coverage about the Kyoto protocol)


The 1997 Kyoto conference.

On December 5th a secret message (read the note online) was sent from Canada's chief negotiator to the Prime Minister's Office in Ottawa. It warned against committing Canada to a too-ambitious target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A proposal to cut emissions by 3% had already been greeted with hostility by Western provinces and industry.

But when word came back from Ottawa, negotiators learned that Canada's target would be twice that - 6% below 1990 levels.

BAD WEATHER
Most scientists agree that the world's climate is changing dramatically. According to a United Nations study the 1990's were one of the most lethal decades on record for weather. Five thousand natural disasters claimed almost a million lives. (download the study on the IPCC site)


The last two decades have been the hottest on record.
The 20th century was the warmest in the past thousand years. Worst case predictions are that average temperatures could increase by as much as 5 degrees over the next 100 years.

Canada's minister of the Environment David Anderson says the stakes are enormous, "Think back over the last few decades and our concern over things like nuclear war...if climate change has the impact that scientists are predicting, that is exactly the type of absolutely destructive force that we may be facing."

GREENHOUSE GASES
It's clear that the world is getting warmer. The question is why? Although it's a matter for debate, the vast majority of the world's leading scientists believe that global warming has been accelerated by the emission of greenhouse gases. Specifically, the carbon dioxide that is released by fossil fuels as we drive our cars, heat our homes and run plants to generate electricity.

One of Canada's most respected climate experts, Gordon McBean says the amount is enormous, "As humans we are now putting about seven billion tonnes of carbon per year into the atmosphere. That number has increased dramatically in the last one hundred years and is still increasing." (CBC News Online Backgrounder: Turning Up the Heat on Global Warming)

HOKEY SCIENCE
It's a widely accepted theory that the trapped carbon dioxide warms the earth and destabilizes the climate. But there are some who say that these weather diasasters are perfectly natural. Alberta's Environment Minister, Lorne Taylor, "I think that's a bunch of what I would call hokey science. The South Saskatchewan River was dry in 1862. Are you going to tell me that that was caused by global warming?" (read an alternative view by the Cato Institute)


Canada uses more energy
per capita than any other country in the world.

HOOKED ON FOSSILS
There's no doubt that Canada is hooked oo fossil fuels. No other country in the world consumes more energy per capita - from coal-fired plants to gas-guzzling SUVs. It's a habit that other developed countries have managed to break. In Europe the landscape has partly given way to clean energy windmills instead of coal belching power plants. Today, the average European burns off far less fossil fuel then the average North American.

That point was hammered home at the 1997 Economic Summit by German Chancellor Helmut Kohl who openly admonished the US President Bill Clinton and Canada's Jean Chretien to clean up their acts. After that, it seemed, Jean Chretien was determined to do as well - or better - than the Americans.

THE KYOTO ANNOUNCEMENT
It was only a few months later that the Canadian delegation arrived at Kyoto. The delegation numbered 80 from government and many more from industry and environmental groups. Cathy Wilkinson was a senior advisor, "We negotiated for 72 hours straight...it was a very intense period, the first time in history that we were going to fundamentally change the direction of how we make greenhouse gases."


Cathy Wilkinson was at the 1997 Kyoto conference as a senior government advisor.

It was important for Jean Chretien to be seen as an environmental leader. So despite the secret memo warning of serious political problems he gave the order to commit Canada to emissions to 6% below 1990 levels. Wilkinson remembers, "Everyone was surprised that we had a number that moved us on a path to meaningful reductions. Some people in the room were ecstatic, others shocked and concerned." Insiders say the decision had less to do with science or economics, than the with the Prime Minister's desire to be keeping up with the US.

The oil industry was shocked. As producers of the fossil fuel that would have to be cut back, they felt Canada's tough target had painted a bull's eye on them. (Read the Kyoto protocol)

FIVE YEARS LATER
In the five years since Kyoto only one thing has changed. One of former Texas oilman George Bush's first acts as US President was to pull the US out of the agreement. With the US out and Mexico exempt from the agreement the Prime Minister had became the only North American leader whose country still had to meet its Kyoto target. (read about the US reversal at CBC News Online)

REACTION FROM THE OIL PATCH
Every day, Alberta produces about 3 million barrels of oil. It is home to 75% of the oil and gas industry in Canada. And Jean Chretien's ongoing commitment to Kyoto has - as predicted - caused hostility and serious political problems there.


The reaction from Alberta's oil patch was swift - and harsh.

Alberta's Minister of the Environment, Lorne Taylor claims that the costs of Kyoto could be catastrophic. "Let's deal with it. 450 thousand jobs, $1.10 a liter of gas...now in terms of actual dollars, we're saying the cost to the Alberta economy could be as high as 8 billion dollars a year." (read about Alberta view)

But Ottawa's Environment Minister David Anderson claims that, "Mr. Taylor comes up with these figures, never supported with any analysis" and assures Albertans that - despite what their government says - Kyoto will not unfairly affect them.

It's led to an all out PR battle with commercial ad campaigns running across the country. But the latest polls indicate that Alberta seems to be winning - at least inside the province.

KYOTO DETAILS
Despite sending hundreds of experts to Ottawa to discuss Kyoto the federal government still doesn't have any precise figures about the cost of implementing it. Ottawa's latest climate change plan was released recently. It's 67 pages long and contains generalizations and statements of good intent. But few specifics on the cost. (read the plan)


A 6% reduction really means at 33% reduction.

One thing is clear. Greenhouse gas emissions have been rising steadily ever since 1990 - now twelve years ago. So in order to meet the Kyoto target of cutting emissions by 6% less than 1990 - actual emissions would have to be cut by as much as 33%. Done today, that would mean theoretically - and in a worst case scenario - taking every third vehicle off the road, every third plane out of the air and turning off every third furnace.


THE ESCAPE CLAUSES
But there are loophoes that Canada is keen to exploit. For example, Canada argues that because we export clean energy like natural gas, we should get credit for it. We should also be allowed to purchase emission credits from countries like Russia who have credits to spare. Theoretically Canada could receive credit for millions of tons of emissions reductions that we don't even have to make. But politicians can still claim that we are living up to our Kyoto target. (read more details on CBC New Online)

 


Canada will get credit for tons of emissions reductions that it will never have to make.
There's more. Canada could get credit for forests and farm lands - known as carbon sinks - that actually absorb carbon dioxide so that it never gets into the atmosphere. But there's a hitch. Mike Apps, a world authority on carbon sinks, claims that the jury is still out and that, "in fact, forests overall could turn out to be net carbon emitters."

Although these loopholes were something that Ottawa and Alberta had agreed on, now Alberta is using carbon sinks as an argument against Kyoto.

This riles environmentalists like Elizabeth May, "Canada, largely to appease Alberta negotiated a lot of loopholes so when I hear Lorne Taylor the minister from Alberta getting up at meetings and saying, 'well look at these loopholes'...we have those loopholes to appease his government. And it's never good enough for them."

BROKEN PROMISES
And because of all of the wheeling and dealing Jean Chretien - seen by some as an environmental convert - is now the target of flak from European environmentalists. "Unfortunately, the role of Canada has been a history of broken promises from Kyoto in 1997 when they committed to an emission reduction target, " say Kate Hampton from the UK based Friends of the Earth.

But Canada's Environment Minister David Anderson says the credits are legitimate, much like a basic deduction on a tax form.

 THE OIL SANDS
It's a project that could power Canada's economy through the 21st century. Trillions of barrels of crude oil are mixed with the sands of northern Alberta. It's enough energy for decades to come - for Canada and the US.


Developing the Alberta tar sands.

In the 1970s Jean Chretien gave the green light to developing the vastly expensive Oil Sands. In the 1990s he initiated huge tax breaks for the project. But if he wants to be remembered as an environmental statesman Jean Chretien may face a fundamental decision about the Oil Sands.

According to futurist Jeremy Rifkin, even the process of extracting the oil creates substantial emissions, "They are heavy CO2 emitters. They produce more carbon dioxide than oil or natural gas...if we're forced into making a shift from cheap crude oil to tar sand production in Canada, we're going to increase carbon dioxide levels on this plant."

It may not be possible for Canada to protect the Oil Sands and Kyoto.

NOTHING TO FEAR
In September 2002 Jean Chretien attended a conference of Calgary oilmen to talk about the billions of dollars in threatened investment if the Kyoto deal goes through.


Oilmen emerge from a closed door meeting with the Prime Minister.
The oilmen emerged to say that they have asked Chretien to put the burden of Kyoto on Canadian consumers. (read a CBC News Online Analysis on the costs of Kyoto)

According to the latest government plan not only will Canada's major industries not be forced to meet the emissions targets - some of them will be allowed to stay at 27%. That means their greenhouse emissions could actually go up under Kyoto.

David Anderson insists that the oil industry has nothing to fear. "This plan calls for a tripling of oil sands production in the next decade...it's not as though we've said the oil industry's going to have to shut down. We've said that we expect it to dramatically increase."

THE ALBERTA SOLUTION
Despite opposing Kyoto ten years ago Alberta proposed it's own solution to cutting greenhouse gases. Premier Klein was Alberta's environment minister at the time. The province released a report stating that Alberta could meet similar emission reductions as Kyoto and eventually make money by doing it. (read the executive summary)


Pierre Alvarez says the the consuming habits of Canadians are not changing.

But nothing ever came of the report and in any case, oilmen argue that it's not their fault Canadians consume more energy per capita than anyone else on the planet. They claim if Kyoto forces them to cut back on production, consumers will get their fuel elsewhere.

Pierre Alvarez, the President of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers says, "There is no question that the volume is going up...they're going up because somebody is using the product...What are those folks in Toronto prepared to do? Are they prepared to use less electricity? Drive less? Change their work patterns and their commuting patterns? I've not seen evidence that Toronto, Montreal, New York or anywhere else in the world has been prepared to make a significant move."

CANADIANS DOING THEIR PART
But the federal government has data that shows that 60% of Canadians are willing to do their part to combat global warming, even if it costs them more money.


Ottawa is determined to make Kyoto a reality.

The latest federal polls show that 77% of Canadians still support the signing of Kyoto even if they don't know exactly what it means to them. The Prime Minister has already decided that parliament will ratify the agreement, without the approval of Alberta and other provinces if necessary.

But the province of Alberta shows no signs of giving up the Kyoto fight - even after ratification. According to environmentalist Robert Hornung the real battle will happen later. "At the end of the day we're going to have to cut a deal on how we're going to implement Kyoto and how we're going to share the costs."

THE IMPACT OF KYOTO
But what difference will it really make? The Kyoto Accord doesn't include the US and exempts economic giants like China and India. In fact, increased emissions from these countries will wipe out any cutbacks from Canada.

After all of the infighting and the rhetoric about who will pay and how much - in the end - Kyoto will be remembered as a very small first step.

Climate expert Gordan McBean believes that, "What we really need, in order to stabilize the climate, which is the objective of the climate convention, is emission reductions of the order to 50%. Or more. And that's just not happening."

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the fifth estate: Hot Air

The Canadian Debate on Kyoto - Kyoto: A Chronology - The Kyoto Documents - Resources

Broadcast December 4, 2002 on CBC News: the fifth estate


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