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NOTHING
TO FEAR
In September 2002 Jean Chretien attended a conference
of Calgary oilmen to talk about the billions of dollars
in threatened investment if the Kyoto deal goes through.
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Oilmen
emerge from a closed door meeting with the Prime
Minister.
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The oilmen emerged
to say that they have asked Chretien to put the burden
of Kyoto on Canadian consumers. (read a CBC
News Online Analysis on the costs of Kyoto)
According to the latest government plan not only will
Canada's major industries not be forced to meet the
emissions targets - some of them will be allowed to
stay at 27%. That means their greenhouse emissions could
actually go up under Kyoto.
David Anderson insists that the oil industry has nothing
to fear. "This plan calls for a tripling of oil
sands production in the next decade...it's not as though
we've said the oil industry's going to have to shut
down. We've said that we expect it to dramatically increase."
THE
ALBERTA SOLUTION
Despite opposing Kyoto ten years ago Alberta proposed
it's own solution to cutting greenhouse gases. Premier
Klein was Alberta's environment minister at the time.
The province released a report stating that Alberta
could meet similar emission reductions as Kyoto and
eventually make money by doing it. (read
the executive summary)
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Pierre
Alvarez says the the consuming habits of Canadians
are not changing.
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But
nothing ever came of the report and in any case, oilmen
argue that it's not their fault Canadians consume
more energy per capita than anyone else on the planet.
They claim if Kyoto forces them to cut back on production,
consumers will get their fuel elsewhere.
Pierre Alvarez, the President of the Canadian
Association of Petroleum Producers says, "There
is no question that the volume is going up...they're
going up because somebody is using the product...What
are those folks in Toronto prepared to do? Are they
prepared to use less electricity? Drive less? Change
their work patterns and their commuting patterns?
I've not seen evidence that Toronto, Montreal, New
York or anywhere else in the world has been prepared
to make a significant move."
CANADIANS
DOING THEIR PART
But the federal government has data that shows that
60% of Canadians are willing to do their part to combat
global warming, even if it costs them more money.
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Ottawa
is determined to make Kyoto a reality.
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The
latest federal polls show that 77% of Canadians still
support the signing of Kyoto even if they don't know
exactly what it means to them. The Prime Minister
has already decided that parliament will ratify the
agreement, without the approval of Alberta and other
provinces if necessary.
But the province of Alberta shows no signs of giving
up the Kyoto fight - even after ratification. According
to environmentalist Robert Hornung the real battle
will happen later. "At the end of the day we're
going to have to cut a deal on how we're going to
implement Kyoto and how we're going to share the costs."
THE IMPACT OF KYOTO
But what difference will it really
make? The Kyoto Accord doesn't include the US and
exempts economic giants like China and India. In fact,
increased emissions from these countries will wipe
out any cutbacks from Canada.
After all of the infighting and the rhetoric about
who will pay and how much - in the end - Kyoto will
be remembered as a very small first step.
Climate expert Gordan McBean believes that, "What
we really need, in order to stabilize the climate,
which is the objective of the climate convention,
is emission reductions of the order to 50%. Or more.
And that's just not happening."
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