Confidence down despite economic gains: survey
'A little bit of concern with people's perception'
Last Updated: Thursday, November 26, 2009 | 3:49 PM ET
CBC News
Consumers continue to be nervous about the economy despite recent gains in house prices and the retail and auto sectors, suggests a Conference Board of Canada survey.
The think-tank's national index of consumer confidence decreased 5.7 points to 79 points in November, the second consecutive monthly decline.
By contrast, the index hovered between 90 and 110 for most of the time since early 2002 before plummeting to the 50 range in January 2009. It had climbed rapidly from there, but now is slackening again.
"We were a little disappointed. We didn't expect to see such a significant decline in confidence," said Pedro Antunes, director of economic forecasting for the Ottawa-based Conference Board.
"But we thought it was going to be a bumpy ride coming out of this recession," he added.
'There is a little bit of concern with people's perception about how good things are or not.'—Conference Board economist Pedro Antunes
"Generally speaking, we're in much better shape than in the U.S.," Antunes told CBC News on Thursday. "There is a little bit of concern with people's perception about how good things are or not."
The pessimism appears to be driven by job insecurity.
Just 19.7 per cent of the 2,000 Canadians polled by telephone this month said they believed there would be more jobs in their region in the next six months. This compared with 25 per cent who predicted the number of jobs would shrink.
Optimism ebbs
When asked if they thought their family finances would improve in the next six months, 27.1 per cent of respondents expressed optimism, down slightly from last month.
People were also asked whether they thought their financial situation was better now than six months ago. Just 13.9 per cent answered positively, down one point from October, while 25.6 per cent indicated they are worse off, up 1.8 points.
The board's survey claims a 95 per cent likelihood of being accurate within 2.1 percentage points.
The report noted that the generally negative responses "fail to reflect the significant improvements in global equity markets over the past six months."
On a regional basis, British Columbia showed the biggest movement in the confidence index, declining 13 points. The outlook among B.C. respondents on current finances was significantly lower than in any other region.
Ontario's index also dropped significantly, down 10.3 points as residents' employment outlook sagged significantly.
Atlantic Canada's regional index moved 4.3 points lower, while the Prairies and Quebec showed little change.
