What's your reaction to the events in Egypt?

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Introduction

The news out of Egypt over the last few days is rich in high drama and potentially of great consequence far beyond Egypt's or even the middle east's borders. Everyone by now has seen the pictures of the people in the streets - the days of demonstration, and heard of the police "retiring" from the scene; the army coming in - and pointedly taking what seems to be a neutral position.

There is a revolution in Egypt many say - but one which has not yet quite declared itself, Nor is it by any means complete. Some say the actions in the street are "unorganized" in other words spontaneous and an expression of the popular will. But "unorganized" also means that the state, the current president and others may still have the means or at least the opportunity to strike back.

What we actually know about the situation is cloudy - despite all the images and coverage.

Today we'd like to get some idea of what you are thinking of the great crisis in the Middle East. Where do you think it's heading? Will it become a revolution? Will Mubarak last it out? Who do you think will emerge if the government there is overthrown?

What are the consequences for others in the Middle East? What are the implications of an unsettled Middle East for the world's economies, for the world's peace?

How are you viewing events in Egypt? If you have family in Egypt ...and have some personal connection or personal information about what's going on, give us a call.

What do you think of events in Egypt? How do you think, ultimately, this will turn out? What are the consequences for the Middle East? Will it have an effect on Israel ...or on the world economy?

Our question today: "What's your reaction to events in Egypt?"

I'm Rex Murphy ...on CBC Radio One ...and on Sirius satellite radio channel 137 ...this is Cross Country Checkup.

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Guests

• Dr. Mohammed Shokr
  Canadian-Egyptian research scientist.
  
  
• Houchang Hassan-Yari
  Head of Politics and Economics and Professor of international relations at the Royal Military College of Canada.
  
  
• Salim Mansur
  Professor of political science at the University of Western Ontario and columnist with the Toronto Sun.
  
  
• Mona Eltahawy
  Egyptian-born award-winning columnist and public speaker on Arab and Muslim issues.
  
  
• Barry Rubin
  Director of the Global Research in International Affairs (GLORIA) Center and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA) Journal. The author of several books including The Long War for Freedom: The Arab Struggle for Democracy in the Middle East

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Links

 

CBC.ca: Egyptian crisis - How did we get here?

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Email

I live in Israel, and here the reaction about protests in Egypt is enthusiastic because people say that Arab dictators can go home. But some have doubts because fall of the Mubarak regime could favor islamic extremists or create chaos and this situation could be be a real danger for all the region. 

Tommaso Debenedetti
Jerusalem, Israel

 

Over a Billion a year in the Americans favorite aid, military, while the people of Egypt try to survive on a couple of dollars a day...Disgusting.
 
Ronald Mcisaac

 

 

Rex,

I find it so interesting that, at the very time that the Mediterranean region "explodes" with demonstrations for democratic change, we get images of our leader, Prime Minister Harper, visiting on of the longest-standing repressive regimes, vis a vis democracy, posing his finely coiffed visage (no doubted to be used in upcoming election ads promoting his worldly statesmanship), and promoting a free-trade agreement.

Now, Rex, you have to help me out on this.  I'm just a poor plebian trying to make my way through another harsh winter here in Scarberia.  In my mind, when you promote such a trade agreement, it should mean that they have stuff we need and want, and vice versa.  Whatever those goods turn out to be, will Canada being buying from companies controlled by the family of the "King" (dictator)?  Is there a responsible economy that Canadian businesses can trade with.

This happened as the turmoil in Tunisia ramped up.  Now it's Egypt.  There is unrest in Yemen. There are now protests in Jordan.  Lebanon remains in discomfort years after the assassination of Hariri (check spelling).

The only response of Mr. Harper's that I can relate to, goes back to last year, when his government turned on peaceful protest here in Toronto. 

It's little wonder Mr. Harper has been warmly received in Morocco.

Walter Kuipers
Toronto, Ontario

 

Funny how governments everywhere are becoming more militant, clamping down harder on people that can't or won't defend themselves. I think that we are approaching a breaking point all over the world it might be a good thing too. I don't know if its a bad time to be a greedy leader anywhere. Isn't the point of good governance to address all peoples concerns, and why don't many world leaders follow this idea. We get elected and we only look out for our side even if that harms the other side - well that isn't good governance its oppression your own people this is what happens when big business gains control of any government. Leaders all over the world have broken the trust they only represent one side, their own side and not the whole nation. That is sad because leaders should be caring for both sides and they don't and it's very sad! 

Koran Merth

Edmonton, Alberta

 

Hi Rex,
 
The current dictatorship certainly does not allow the level of democratic freedom the Egyptians deserve and change is necessary.  One thing that concerns me greatly in Egypt and other Arabs countries is that although the dictatorships are distasteful, their removal will not automatically lead to democracy but could open the door for militant Islamist groups like al-Qaeda.   Then where will we be?  
 
Ken Curry
Abbotsford, British Columbia

 

I wonder how many of us know about the Russian revolution, the French revolution, even the American's two civil wars, and other revolutions throughout history. They seldom benefit the oppressed who revolted. Usually they resulted in a change of oppression.

D Baker

 

Rex,
 
First of all, things will get worst before they get better.  As mentioned there is no sign of leadership, President Mubarak will not leave easily.  History has proved that such revolts have lasted for years before stabilization.  Thirty years of Mubarak has set the stage for a host of issues.  Rex 40% of population live below the poverty line and should any new government gain power they will have to deal with this issue post haste.  The people of privilege will be front and centre to see their standard is maintained and will be looking for more.  Justice is great but many will want their share first and foremost.  So in short Rex, look for some very rough roads in the near future either way, soon food shortages and paychecks will be lost and when that happens tempers will rise.  Couple all this to the fact a new root of bad cats will be working behind the walls to set out territories with a very angry police force having lost lives at the hands of those who now want their help.
 
David Bakody
Dartmouth, Nova Scotia

 

One point not often discussed is who are "the people". My understanding is that most of those Egyptians currently taking to the streets are middle class and urban while the extremely poor and rural poor seem to be absent as does the Muslim Brotherhood.  What often springs from these so-called peoples revolutionsc are often more despotic and dangerous than that which they replaced. I am thinking of course of the Iranian revolution. While I genuinely hope the Egyptians obtain the type of government they deserve, we should be cautious of what we wish for.

Dave Johnston
Ottawa, Ontario

 

Hi Rex,

With a degree in Political Science, I see this as a historic turning point whereby ordinary people the world over are starting to wrestle control from the ruling moneyed classes in order to obtain a fair share of the good life for themselves.  In Canada watch for the revolt of the withering middle class.  In the US watch for the future power moves of the tea party.  Kudos to those in Africa who have started this change 

John Seaton
Cambridge, Ontario

 

In the end Mubarak will have to go. I can only imagine what is going on behind the political scene. I can see that naive callers will find a way to blame the US and Israel. As I am watching on my laptop, there are Egyptians carrying placards with the face of Mubarak crossed over with the star of David.

Cairo has a population of young people who have no clue what it is to live under a democracy, they have no clue how to conduct themselves within a democracy; if the Egyptians want to show the world that they have maturity and a conscience, they will immediately stop blaming the rest of the world for their problems, show courage and integrity. The ideal situation now would be that the internet is turned back on by the Egyptian government, so that families can communicate with their people, to make sure the airport is functioning again, that food can be delivered, that plans can be made for the future; that Western nations keep out of their business, that immigrants from all North Africans countries go back and help their people; they have a stake in this revolution.

Western governments are refraining from saying anything or taking a firm position because they in the end will be blamed by the Arab world no matter what they do or say.

I am very pessimistic - the world is on the edge of a precipice of political anarchy.

Monique Martineau
Mount-Royal

 

I am totally in favor of the revolution going on in Egypt right now.  Good luck to them.  I think we (and the Egyptian people) need to remember is that a basic tenet of  "democracy" is the separation of church and state.  My worry is that the radical Muslim faction will eventually take over and impose their particular brand of religious dictatorship.  I only hope the Egyptians do not fall out of the frying pan into the fire.

Lionel Webb
Vancouver, British Columbia

 

Good Afternoon,

This is the end of Mubarark. The coming change is far reaching especially for Israel but most importantly for the Palestinians. The USA is paying $8 billion a year to Egypt to be their allies but especially to be the allies of Israel.  It gives Israel undue and  unjust power and undermines any effort on their part to give Palestine a peace agreement that can be accepted by them. It clearly visible from the wikileaks that the present unbalance of power will never lead to peace. I hope the USA is smart enough to realize not to interfere with the situation in Egypt and I  also hope that Harper shows independent statesmanship and gives support to the people's uprising and not blow the horn of their neighbor down south.

Jay Demers

 

While the often-cited threat of Islamic fundamentalism is a real concern, the Mubarak regime has always exploited this legitimate fear to cling to power. Washington's arming of Egypt's dictatorship has until now been justified as the price for stability in the region, and its peace treaty with Israel cited as an example of that success. This is a seriously flawed oversimplification - and in fact, the opposite has happened. Israel's continuing expansion of illegal settlements coupled with Egypt's collusion with it in the collective punishment of Gaza has not only enflamed the Arab street but also lent credence to the Islamists messages that so-called moderate Arab regimes are in fact little more than Washington puppets.

Martial law and torture chambers may temporarily suppress some Islamists, but these tactics - besides being morally wrong, are clearly counterproductive. Just because a group with an unpleasant ideology may want to participate in society and even dream of eventually imposing its ideology, this does not justify brutal repression or support for brutal dictatorships.

John Dirlik
Pointe Claire, Quebec

 

I really don't know a lot about Egypt and its position in its part of the world.

However, I am concerned about the following: 

Given that roughly 90% of Egypt's population is Sunni Muslim, will Islamic extremists gain power and incrementally destabilize that portion of the world and, directly or indirectly, negatively influence our society?
Given Egypt's export of petroleum, how will the current unrest influence the global petroleum industry?
Will a number of Egyptians look to emigrate to other parts of the world due to the unrest? I'm not sure that many places in the world can accommodate more immigrants. Will the next regime be more repressive than the one that is being unseated now?  I'm not sure how we can know this except through experience with them either currently or in the future.

David Huddlestone

 

Greetings,

Many of your callers seem to assume that the outcome of current events in Egypt depends on decisions made in Washington.  While I don't doubt the inclination of a superpower to throw its weight around -- the Americans do it, the Soviets did it, the British did it, and so on -- I also think there's a point at which popular feeling and local organization trumps outside influence.  The Iranian revolution of '79 is a classic example.  There were many factions -- Communists, Socialists, Pro-Western, and the Iranian fundamentalists.  The fundamentalists won, because they were well organized; clearly, the Americans didn't engineer that.  Right now, the Muslim Brotherhood may well be in a position to take power in Egypt regardless of what the Americans or anyone else wants.  Lastly, why would the Americans want to get rid of a convenient little dictator like Mubarak?

Rob Ruttan
Barrie, Ontario

 

Hi Rex,
The main problem in Egypt and Middle East is due to materialistic greed, corruption and Islamist propaganda.  People of Egypt have become very corrupt, they do not pay taxes and cheat to get ahead in life and thread on minorities and poor.

Unless the leaders and people of Egypt (and other Middle Eastern countries) become righteous and work together to improve the economy and the betterment of life no one can help them.  It seems to me that only thing they are interested in is destroying Israel and they think that once they do that all will be well.

Greed, selfishness and corruption are the main cause of unhappiness and suffering throughout this world.  Righteousness motivation and hard work is the only answer.

Yours truly,
Aspi Maneckjee
Antigonish, Nova Scotia

 

Given the history of past Arab uprisings against their Arab masters and the transition to true democratic rule: free press, freedom of assembly and association, multi-party system, and market economy is, I am afraid, very remote.

Oppression of the masses coupled with a deliberate policy of keeping the people ignorant and in the dark has been , since post-colonial period, the prescription to dominate Arab society while the power elites preoccupied themselves with the consolidation of power and material wealth. From time to time, when the pot would start to boil, Israel would become the convenient scape goat, a source to divert the anger of the mob and channel it externally.

The 80 million people of Egypt are largely uneducated, ignorant, oppressed and now exploding. This is a social condition, which the Islamists love! The people are easily excitable and the Islamists know how to exploit this condition. The future of the region does not look good.

Zvi Horovit
Ottawa, Ontario

 

I will admit to having limited knowledge of the middle east area in general but from what I see I believe the up most emotion from the people in the whole middle east seems to be hatred. There seems to be no notion of tolerance of people, one to another, one country to another. The lack of industry and therefore the lack of a middle class is no doubt part of the problem of political unrest, certainly in Egypt. The young men, I gather, are at the forefront of the protest movement we are seeing. With the lack of industry in the country, how is the jobless rate going to change? With no middle class to speak of, any change will result in the rich getting richer, the poor, poorer.

 The lack of a middle class is a major factor in the rise of religious extremism, leaders who would otherwise be relegated to the fringes, rise to prominence because they give hope to masses of poor people.  So far as I can tell Canada has no role to play in the Egyptian situation beyond caring for Canadians who may be there, for whatever reason.
 
We may indeed be witnessing a revolution in Egypt but as has already been noted, I don't see that the will be any different. The same applies to Yemen, poverty is not easy to deal with when the country has no resources, no source of wealth.

On a world scale, there are solutions to stories like Egypt and Yemen, but mankind is not yet ready to entertain ideas like that, May God help us all.

Edward Beday
Qu'Appelle, Saskatchewan

 

I do not think the Brotherhood is set up to take over because Masharif arrested and eliminated the leaders. There is no central leadership in the Muslim Brotherhood

Also, what we do not know is exactly where the military is in all this seeing that they receive billions of dollars from the Americans.

Tony Robertson
Regina, Saskatchewan

 

Some alarmist voices are making analogies that simply don't bear scrutiny.

North Africa is perhaps best compared to Eastern Europe because it does maintain the formalisms and public rationale of elections (however rigged at the moment) and has a long history of integration with Western Europe.  It may also resemble Latin America in having a long history of military dictatorships.  Both of these regions went democratic quickly in last twenty years despite dire predictions.  The Arab world could go just the same.  Youth, communications technology, global economic integration, and news about the faults of dictators and theocracy has changed the game.

Craig Hubley