Election Roundtable

While I was out watching the election returns come in (and calming my jittery friends who thought all was lost when the Conservatives came out of Atlantic Canada trailing), the comments section at my blog was filling up with returns, results and reaction. To say feelings are mixed at the outcome is an understatement.

What short memories we have, due, in no small part to the amnesiac nature of the Canadian media. Only 8 weeks ago, the notion of a Conservative minority seemed unlikely, with many predicting that an outraged electorate would punish them for forcing a Christmas election that "Canadians" didn't want.

By the time the broadcast wrapped up (we were watching on Global), there were already efforts afoot in the punditry to turn the once unanticipated victory into a failure.

Some things never change.

When Ronald Reagan passed away in 2004, the outpouring of emotion belied the fact that in his own day, he was as reviled and ridiculed by both the media and the left as George W. Bush is today.

Of his many and longlasting achievements, one in particular is largely overlooked - the profound effect he had on liberating the American democratic debate and opening the door to conservative thought and opinion in media. The explosion of talk radio led by Rush Limbaugh and the growing influence of the unapologetically pro-American Fox News were made possible by Reagan's determination to eliminate the FCC "fairness doctrine."

The fairness doctrine ran parallel to Section 315 of the Communications Act of 1937 which required stations to offer "equal opportunity" to all legally qualified political candidates for any office if they had allowed any person running in that office to use the station. The attempt was to balance--to force an even handedness. [...] The doctrine, nevertheless, disturbed many journalists, who considered it a violation of First Amendment rights of free speech/free press which should allow reporters to make their own decisions about balancing stories. Fairness, in this view, should not be forced by the FCC. In order to avoid the requirement to go out and find contrasting viewpoints on every issue raised in a story, some journalists simply avoided any coverage of some controversial issues. This "chilling effect" was just the opposite of what the FCC intended.

After the courts transformed the policy into law, Reagan-appointed FCC chairman Mark Fowler publicly vowed to kill it. When both houses voted to reinstate it, Reagan vetoed and the political debate in America was transformed.

Which takes me to my own suggestion for the Harper government.

As a conservative on the libertarian side of the ledger, the degree to which speech in Canada has been corralled and controlled by the courts, ever-invasive government institutions and unaccountable "human rights" tribunals is deeply disturbing. The trend has been reinforced for decades by a Liberal party reward system for pro-Liberal journalism, overtly (through diplomatic postings and Senate seat appointments) and financially. In America, the largest advertiser is Procter & Gamble. In Canada, it is the federal government.

As the most recent example of the pervasive liberal-left world view of the mainstream Canadian media, I need only point to the tenor of the final week of the campaign, in which abortion was raised as an issue by the Martin campaign.

Despite the fact that this most contentious of public policy issues offers legitimate arguments both for and against, with huge advocacy constituencies on both sides - no reporter, no pundit, no network head, thought it appropriate to make Mr. Martin defend the Liberal party position of preserving the status quo. That Canada has no abortion law at all, that for-profit clinics operate in many provinces, the costs to the Canada health system - none of these points were considered worthy of debate. No one asked Paul Martin if he thought there was a legitimate case to be made for a more balanced, centrist public policy on abortion.

Instead, the media took the Liberal postiion as the desired default, and demanded Harper explain himself. That's illuminating - for it allows only two possibile explanations: the first, that no one thought to do so. The second - the recognition of a potential - and "undesirable" - Conservative majority. Would that have happened if there were a true Canadian equivalent to Fox News? I suspect not - the questions about abortion might have gone both ways, with the public engaged in a legitimate public policy debate.

So in addition to the list of priorities that Harper will be taking on - the accountability act, opening the books to forensic audits, enacting planned tax cuts - the single most important change he can make to restore balance to Canadian democracy is to begin breaking down the stranglehold of government and the Liberal apparatchik on the communications industry by eliminating or radically restricting the authority of the CRTC, restoring political balance on the board of the CBC and moving the network to a model of market self-sufficiency, and closing the generous pasture land of government funded "think tanks" where deposed and unemployed Liberals retire to lobby the government at government expense - and inform Canadians of our "Canadian values."

For until and unless conservatives can look forward to hearing their voice, their issues, their world view expressed as part of - as opposed to subject matter for - mainstream Canadian media, the prospects for the election of Stephen Harper to bring "Morning to Canada" will be remembered only as a brief time out for Canada's unnaturally governing party.

I had hopes for a last minute turnaround at the polls, but that didn't happen. In the end, it turned out pretty well, however. The NDP getting more say can only be a good thing, considering how well Jack and his boys did mediating the last minority government. At least we can be relieved in the fact that 63.75% of Canadian voters did not want a Tory government! That says something, and perhaps dampens the spirits of the Harper camp somewhat.

I was very happy that the number of Canadians voting is up. This is something that people are starting to take more seriously, and I am proud to see the numbers rise by 5% or so.

In Alberta and the Prairies, the votes went as almost everyone would expect. The Tories swept Alberta yet again, leaving nothing but hay bales and mad cows behind :) I was actually surprised at the increase in Tory popularity in Quebec, but then the way the campaigns went, it's no wonder. Something seriously needs to be done about the representation in Parliament. When I see the BQ with 10.5% of the votes and 51 seats, and others (Greens) with 5% and no seats, something needs to be changed. However, I am neither a politician nor a lawmaker, so that shall be left up to others.

I will touch on Paul Martin's resignation as party leader. I honestly felt that Martin was handed a giant, steaming bucket of bilge water when he took the reins of leadership, and now he has paid the ultimate price for it. It's a shame because I still think he would be the best prime minister out of the group we all just voted for. However, perhaps a change at the helm will help move the Liberals back to the forefront, and inject some new enthusiasm into the party that seemed to dwindle at many times during this campaign.

The campaigns themselves were very interesting yet frustrating to watch. The Tories ran a very smooth campaign, though I suspect the muzzling of many candidates with more right-wing views likely was a super strategy for Harper to use. They seemed to win, however, not based on their platform but rather on the fact the some voters simply wanted the Liberals out.

The Liberals literally bungled their campaign and I would hope that their campaign manager is axed. Every day that the Liberals made a choice in which direction to go with their announcements, ads or almost anything, they seemed to pick the wrong way. Or perhaps there was a damaging remark made by someone. The Quebec MP who was telling folks to vote Conservative deserved to lose, and sadly, stunts like that will have slight ripples throughout other ridings as well, as we can see by the Tory gains in Quebec.

I see this government being more balanced, but lasting less than two years. Sadly, when all is said and done, Harper will use the smaller number of seats as an excuse after not fulfilling many of his campaign promises, which may be partly true, but he has already shown us that he thinks you need a majority to get things done in Parliament... at least, that was his implication in the last debate.

The only thing I will be dubious of is how the U.S. reacts. Already we see news headlines along the lines of "Canada moves closer to the right" and talk of tighter bonds with the U.S....

Relations with the Bush administration could improve under a Harper government, as his ideology runs along the same lines of many U.S. Republicans.

However, that is a story for another time... At this time, I want to thank CBC and all of my fellow panellists. This has been a fantastic experience, and one I will always remember. We have had some great discussion and some not so great disagreements, but then, as they say, we are all of different political and social perspectives and that is what makes a panel like this so diverse and interesting. I may not hold degrees in politics, law or journalism, but I sure enjoyed covering this election, and learning a lot about our great country!

I am happy with the election results. At the beginning of the campaign I hoped the NDP would increase its seats (it did) and that there would be another minority government. I didn't care which party won the minority, so a Conservative minority doesn't bother me.

I did want the NDP to hold the balance of power, which it currently doesn't. However, it didn't hold the balance of power in the last House and still managed to get progressive laws passed, and the number by which they are short of the balance of power is close to what it was then. I'm very happy to see that the New Democrats increased their seats to 29. The last time the NDP held more seats was when it won 43 seats in the 1988 election. I think this is a very good result and overall I'm very happy with it.

The Liberals managed to keep more seats than I (and many other people) thought they would. With Liberals holding 103 seats and Conservatives holding 124, it's going to be an interesting Parliament. I think Paul Martin's decision not to stay on as leader is a good one, however it was far from automatic given the Liberal seat results. I was quite surprised to see him announce yesterday that he would be stepping down, however.

Given the results, I'm not sure how stable this government will be. I would think it would last a year, maybe 18 months, but that's a pure guess. I've felt for many years that minority governments were more democratic, and in countries where minorities are frequently the result, there is often more stability than in Canada, because the parties know that if they hold a new election, there will still be a minority government.

It seems to me that a party being given 4 years after getting less than 50% of the vote isn't a very democratic result. I was worried about a Conservative majority government even if I didn't think it all that likely. I'm very happy we aren't in that situation.

The seat counts at the moment are not final and we will likely need to wait some time for final numbers. This is because there are always some seats in which judicial recounts occur. From watching the news yesterday I know there is at least one judicial recount that is going to occur automatically because of how close the results were.

In 2004, if a candidate won by a margin of less than 0.1% there was an automatic recount, and there were 4 of them, since candidates can ask for a recount, and if the vote is sufficiently close will often have it granted. In 1972, a recount resulted in the NDP holding the balance of power. I don't think that is likely in this case but I do think it is interesting. And the overall results and the recounts really highlight how every vote counts.

What a morning after! Paul Martin has already left the arena and the new game really hasn't begun.

This is pretty much my dream result, so I am quite happy. A well-locked House of Commons that will have to co-operate and get along, with lots of reasons for that not to happen. After years of shouting and finger-pointing about the ills of all others, the Tories have a lot of bridge building - inside the party and out. Liberal factionalism, too, might arise or perhaps a potential strong leader - either way, they may not be as willing as possible to help out Harper.

The NDP missed holding the balance of power by a few votes, so even though they made good gains in seats it is something of a moral victory...again. But that moral victory may taste a bit sweeter than the taste in the mouth of Gilles Duceppe, who has pretty much maintained his seats but with ony 42% of the Quebec vote. What incentive does he have to help the new rural Tory overlords who took his support and may well do so more next time. And then there is the shock jock of Quebec City. What will he add? Sober reflection? A helping hand in a tight spot for the new PM? Not likely.

So the jump to 64.9 per cent of eligible voters means Canada likely got what it wanted. I know I did. Should be a fun ride. See you again in 19 months.

I had predicted a CPC majority. I was wrong.

10 random thoughts:

1. One in every four Quebecers voted Conservative. The Conservatives will have 10 seats in Quebec -- Stephen Harper has succeeded where Joe Clark and Robert Stanfield struggled and failed. They are now the stronger alternative to the BQ, who set themselves up for a loss and got just that by falling well short of their target 50%.

2. There will be a change of government, though not one that will satisfy most Canadian voters who wanted to set up a stable situation.

3. I really don't understand Ontario. Perhaps I never will. It will be interesting to see how the Liberal party adjusts to truly being the Ontario rump party. Paul Martin should send Ontarians a big kiss. They saved his hide from a real humbling, including some of his most decadent cabinet ministers. Maybe theft is cool for Ontarians, I dunno . . .

4. In my home province of Newfoundland and Labrador, the Conservatives gained one more of the seven seats (Maverick Fabian Manning won a majority - turning around John Efford's old seat) and won their highest vote totals since the 1984 federal election, tying the Liberals at 42%.

5. "Landslide Annie" McClellan is no more. Almost too bad. If I had to pick a federal Liberal that started out with some credibility, it would have been Annie. Sadly, she became another poster child for the boondoggles. Even Redmonton has its limits in rewarding yes-men or yes-women . . .

6. I am reminded of the 1989 N.L. provincial election where more Newfoundlanders and Labradorians voted Tory and wanted Tom Rideout as their premier, but Liberal Clyde Wells won it because his votes were neatly concentrated in a seat-friendly way. The Conservatives have made impressive gains in places like British Columbia, yet they've lost seats to the NDP!

7. The NDP number was the only part of my prediction that was even close to being right. Layton should be pleased, even if guys like Ed Schreyer didn't get elected.

8. I pity those poor souls in some of the many ridings that will likely be subject to recounts.

9. The Conservatives will have some great talent for their cabinet (hopefully a smaller one), coast to coast. Those ministers will need to meet and work out an issue-by-issue legislative agenda that will rely on support from the NDP and/or BQ and/or maybe our new radio host MP from Portneuf.

10. See you all again in less than 2 years. I hope I'm wrong about that. I hope there's enough juice there to pass tough accountability laws, get tough on crime in some matters, and also do a thorough audit to see what other messes exist that the Liberals were hiding. But there's a limit to what the MPs opposite can or will support. They'll try to angle for things that don't match up with Conservative priorities.

The Conservatives have to be very careful not to compromise on key conservative issues -- I don't mean the non-issues raised by Liberal smear campaigns (which will now be exposed as non-issues and lies) -- I mean fiscal responsibility. I have no use for a non-conservative Conservative -- neither will most other Canadians. Whatever their qualms, I think Canadians want sensible government.

Next federal election, whether it's after a record-breaking long minority term or just in a few months, will be very different. Canadians will see a Conservative government in action, the fear campaign will have expired permanently, the party will have a solid base in every province with room for growth.

If history repeats itself, this might be a 21st-century repeat of 1957. I think we're looking at Canada warming up to Conservatives again. It took Dief the Chief two tries to get a stable majority. Unlike Martin or Chretien, Steve the chief - as always - will have to earn support the hard way.

Congratulations to Prime Minister Stephen Harper! Now the real policy work begins.

The good news is that a lot of people were out to vote. In fact, I am happy that my wife voted for her first time. The numbers are pretty much what can be expected for Alberta. The last update I saw, saw the CPC candidate well in the lead with 80% of the vote, the NDP at 8% and the Greens and Liberals both at 6%. I expect these numbers to carry on until the count is done and, in a way, I expected this, but I am sad that the CPC candidate who will win my riding never bothered to respond to my e-mails.

At least the Liberal fellow took the time to answer my questions and allow me to print them... though he knew, as well, that the battle would lead to a Tory win.

So far, the biggest news seems to be the almost inevitable collapse of Liberal support in Quebec.

Apparently, the polling booth costs $1.65 or so. A little cardboard blinder behind which you make your "X." I checked and the pencil did not say "Election 2006 and/or Gord's Mini Putt" but it was that sort of pencil.

After a day of nerves, I am now watching someone's apparent feed of eastern voting through a U.K. blog. I started doing that right after another station welled up over 1070 AM in Moncton which had been booming in. It is not bad to read or listen to these sources - just bad to write about them. I think I have that right. It is bad being an election nerd.

It was good to vote. There were four polling booths in our building and they were busy all day. Could be a big turnout. It should be. This is a big election. If the Tories get that majority and the turnout is up, well, good for them. Really. But if there is a minority and a big turnout, good for us all. No frying pan to fire scenario.

Just a couple of minutes to the TV shows and their first hour with nothing to say.