Election Roundtable

I had predicted a CPC majority. I was wrong.

10 random thoughts:

1. One in every four Quebecers voted Conservative. The Conservatives will have 10 seats in Quebec -- Stephen Harper has succeeded where Joe Clark and Robert Stanfield struggled and failed. They are now the stronger alternative to the BQ, who set themselves up for a loss and got just that by falling well short of their target 50%.

2. There will be a change of government, though not one that will satisfy most Canadian voters who wanted to set up a stable situation.

3. I really don't understand Ontario. Perhaps I never will. It will be interesting to see how the Liberal party adjusts to truly being the Ontario rump party. Paul Martin should send Ontarians a big kiss. They saved his hide from a real humbling, including some of his most decadent cabinet ministers. Maybe theft is cool for Ontarians, I dunno . . .

4. In my home province of Newfoundland and Labrador, the Conservatives gained one more of the seven seats (Maverick Fabian Manning won a majority - turning around John Efford's old seat) and won their highest vote totals since the 1984 federal election, tying the Liberals at 42%.

5. "Landslide Annie" McClellan is no more. Almost too bad. If I had to pick a federal Liberal that started out with some credibility, it would have been Annie. Sadly, she became another poster child for the boondoggles. Even Redmonton has its limits in rewarding yes-men or yes-women . . .

6. I am reminded of the 1989 N.L. provincial election where more Newfoundlanders and Labradorians voted Tory and wanted Tom Rideout as their premier, but Liberal Clyde Wells won it because his votes were neatly concentrated in a seat-friendly way. The Conservatives have made impressive gains in places like British Columbia, yet they've lost seats to the NDP!

7. The NDP number was the only part of my prediction that was even close to being right. Layton should be pleased, even if guys like Ed Schreyer didn't get elected.

8. I pity those poor souls in some of the many ridings that will likely be subject to recounts.

9. The Conservatives will have some great talent for their cabinet (hopefully a smaller one), coast to coast. Those ministers will need to meet and work out an issue-by-issue legislative agenda that will rely on support from the NDP and/or BQ and/or maybe our new radio host MP from Portneuf.

10. See you all again in less than 2 years. I hope I'm wrong about that. I hope there's enough juice there to pass tough accountability laws, get tough on crime in some matters, and also do a thorough audit to see what other messes exist that the Liberals were hiding. But there's a limit to what the MPs opposite can or will support. They'll try to angle for things that don't match up with Conservative priorities.

The Conservatives have to be very careful not to compromise on key conservative issues -- I don't mean the non-issues raised by Liberal smear campaigns (which will now be exposed as non-issues and lies) -- I mean fiscal responsibility. I have no use for a non-conservative Conservative -- neither will most other Canadians. Whatever their qualms, I think Canadians want sensible government.

Next federal election, whether it's after a record-breaking long minority term or just in a few months, will be very different. Canadians will see a Conservative government in action, the fear campaign will have expired permanently, the party will have a solid base in every province with room for growth.

If history repeats itself, this might be a 21st-century repeat of 1957. I think we're looking at Canada warming up to Conservatives again. It took Dief the Chief two tries to get a stable majority. Unlike Martin or Chretien, Steve the chief - as always - will have to earn support the hard way.

Congratulations to Prime Minister Stephen Harper! Now the real policy work begins.