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Analysis & Commentary

Swing Ridings 2006

Swing ridings can mean different things to different people. Some define them as ridings that frequently change their party preferences. Some say a swing riding is any riding that was won by less than a certain percentage of the vote, say 10 per cent, or five per cent.

As with most types of swings, it all depends on how loose it is, and how hard a push you want to give it. So, for a party with limited resources (and, let's face it, all resources are limited), ridings with the narrowest margins of victory may be the best place to concentrate those resources.

Here's a look at ridings that were won by margins of between 0.01 and 9.99 per cent in the June 2004 general election. We've provided the margins of victory, along with the riding name, and the top candidates in these photo finishes.


The slimmest of margins: less than one per cent

The ridings in this category could have made a huge difference had a few hundred people simply voted another way. They will be in for a lot of attention in the new campaign.

In these 16 ridings, Liberals defeated Conservatives four times, the BQ once, and the NDP twice. Conservatives defeated Liberals four times, and the NDP four times. The NDP defeated the Liberals in one of these ridings. Seven of the ridings are in Ontario.

The winner for the smallest margin of victory is the riding of Jeanne Le Ber in Quebec, where Liberal Liza Frulla won by 0.15 per cent of the vote, or just 72 ballots.

0.15 per cent - Jeanne Le Ber (Quebec) - Liberal incumbent Liza Frulla defeated BQ Thierry St-Cyr by 72 votes.

0.18 per cent - Simcoe-Grey (Ontario) - Conservative Helena Guergis defeated Liberal incumbent Paul Bonwick by 100 votes.

0.23 per cent - New Westminster-Coquitlam (B.C.) - Conservative Paul Forseth defeated NDP Steve McClurg by 113 votes.

0.33 per cent - Edmonton-Beaumont (Alberta) - Liberal incumbent David Kilgour (now independent) defeated Conservative Tim Uppal by 134 votes.

0.34 per cent - Middlesex-Kent-Lambton (Ontario) - Liberal incumbent Rose-Marie Ur defeated Conservative Bev Shipley by 164 votes.

0.37 per cent - Palliser (Saskatchewan) - Conservative Dave Batters defeated New Democrat Dick Proctor by 124 votes.

0.39 per cent - Western Arctic (NWT) - Liberal Ethel Blondin-Andrew defeated the NDP's Dennis Bevington by 53 votes.

0.39 per cent - Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre (Saskatchewan) - Conservative Tom Lukiwski defeated Liberal Gary Anderson by 122 votes.

0.46 per cent - Cambridge (Ontario) - Conservative Gary Goodyear defeated Liberal incumbent Janko Peric by 224 votes.

0.5 per cent - Northumberland-Quinte West (Ontario) - Liberal Paul Macklin defeated Conservative Doug Gault by 313 votes.

0.77 per cent - Kildonan-St. Paul (Manitoba) - Conservative Joy Smith defeated Liberal Terry Duguid by 278 votes.

0.79 per cent - Burnaby-New Westminster (B.C.) - New Democrat Peter Julian defeated Liberal Mary Pynenburg by 329 votes.

0.87 per cent - Hamilton Mountain (Ontario) - Liberal incumbent Beth Phinney defeated the NDP's Chris Charlton by 996 votes.

0.91 per cent - Vancouver Island North (B.C.) - Conservative John Duncan defeated the NDP's Catherine Bell by 483 votes.

0.93 per cent - Chatham-Kent-Essex (Ontario) - Liberal incumbent Jerry Pickard defeated Conservative Dave Van Kesteren by 407 votes.

0.97 per cent - Oshawa (Ontario) - Conservative Colin Carrie defeated New Democrat Sid Ryan by 463 votes.


Wafer thin: one per cent to 4.99 per cent

These ridings are very likely to be considered targets for aggressive campaigning by the parties. In a minority situation, every seat counts.

1.14 per cent - Papineau (Quebec) - Liberal incumbent Pierre Pettigrew defeated BQ Martine Carri�re by 468 votes.

1.17 per cent - Saskatoon-Humboldt (Saskatchewan) - Conservative Bradley Trost defeated New Democrat Nettie Wiebe by 417 votes.

1.27 per cent - Newton-North Delta (B.C.) - Conservative Gurmant Gurwal defeated Liberal Sukh Dhaliwal by 520 votes.

1.28 per cent - Niagara West-Gladbrook (Ontario) - Conservative Dean Allison defeated Liberal Debbie Zimmerman by 664 votes.

1.35 per cent - Edmonton Centre (Alberta) - Liberal incumbent Anne McLellan defeated Conservative Laurie Hawn by 721 votes.

1.37 per cent - Newmarket-Aurora (Ontario) - Conservative Belinda Stronach defeated Liberal Martha Hall Findlay by 689 votes .

1.47 per cent - Southern Interior (B.C.) - Conservative Jim Gouk defeated the NDP's Alex Atamanenko by 680 votes.

1.52 per cent - Trinity-Spadina (Ontario) - Liberal incumbent Tony Ianno defeated the NDP's Olivia Chow by 805 votes.

1.61 per cent - Essex (Ontario) - Conservative Jeff Watson defeated Liberal incumbent Susan Whelan by 829 votes.

1.74 per cent - Sault Ste. Marie (Ontario) - New Democrat Tony Martin defeated Liberal incumbent Carmen Provenzano by 752 votes.

1.74 per cent - Charleswood-St. James (Manitoba) - Conservative Steven Fletcher defeated Liberal Glen Murray by 734 votes.

1.79 per cent - Timmins-James Bay (Ontario) - New Democrat Charlie Angus defeated Liberal Raymond Ch�nier by 613 votes.

1.9 per cent - Chicoutimi-Le Fjord (Quebec) - BQ Robert Bouchard defeated Liberal incumbent Andr� Harvey by 863 votes.

1.9 per cent - Hamilton East-Stoney Creek (Ontario) - Liberal Tony Valeri defeated the NDP's Tony DePaulo by 927 votes.

1.96 per cent - Gatineau (Quebec) - Liberal Francoise Boivin defeated BQ incumbent Richard Nadeau by 830 votes.

2.06 per cent - Nunavik-Eeyou (Quebec) - BQ Yvon L�vesque defeated Liberal incumbent Guy St-Julien by 572 votes.

2.06 per cent - Burnaby-Douglas (B.C.) - New Democrat Bill Siskay defeated Liberal Bill Cunningham by 934 votes.

2.21 per cent - Niagara Falls (Ontario) - Conservative Rob Nicholson defeated Liberal Victor Pietrangelo by 1,137.

2.41 per cent - Ottawa West-Nepean (Ontario) - Liberal Marlene Catterall defeated Conservative Sean Casey by 1,380 votes.

2.42 per cent - Brome-Missisquoi (Quebec) - Liberal incumbent Denis Paradis defeated BQ Christian Ouellet by 1,072 votes.

2.47 per cent - Clarington-Scugog-Uxbridge (Ontario) - Conservative Bev Oda defeated Liberal Tim Lang by 1,265 votes.

2.52 per cent - Ahuntsic (Quebec) - Liberal incumbent Eleni Bakopanos defeated BQ Maria Mourani by 1,214 votes.

2.57 per cent - Victoria (B.C.) - Liberal David Anderson defeated the NDP's David Turner by 2,305 votes.

2.6 per cent - Barrie (Ontario) - Liberal incumbent Aileen Carroll defeated Conservative Patrick Brown by 1,295 votes.

2.79 per cent - West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast (B.C.) - Conservative incumbent John Reynolds defeated Liberal Blair Wilson by 1,687 votes.

3.07 per cent - Regina-Qu'Appelle (Saskatchewan) - Conservative Andrew Scheer defeated NDP incumbent Lorne Nystrom by 861 votes.

3.16 per cent - Vancouver Kingsway (B.C.) - Liberal David Emerson defeated the NDP's Ian Waddell by 1,351 votes.

3.31 per cent - Haldimand-Norfolk (Ontario) - Conservative Diane Finley defeated Liberal incumbent Bob Speller by 1,645 votes.

3.44 per cent - Skeena-Bulkley Valley (B.C.) - New Democrat Nathan Cullen defeated Conservative Andy Burton by 1,272 votes.

3.67 per cent - North Vancouver (B.C.) - Liberal Don Bell defeated Conservative Ted White by 2,071 votes.

3.76 per cent - Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale (Ontario) - Liberal Russ Powers defeated Conservative David Sweet by 2,800 votes.

3.81 per cent - Dufferin-Caledon (Ontario) - Conservative David Tilson defeated Liberal incumbent Murray Calder by 1,713 votes.

4.17 per cent - Kenora (Ontario) - Liberal Roger Valley defeated New Democrat Susan Barclay by 986 votes.

4.6 per cent - Wellington-Halton Hills (Ontario) - Conservative Mike Chong defeated Liberal Bruce Hood by 2,306 votes.

4.65 per cent - Ottawa-Orleans (Ontario) - Liberal Marc Godbout defeated Conservative Walter Robinson by 2,728 votes.

4.68 per cent - Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca (B.C.) - Liberal Keith Martin defeated New Democrat Randall Garrison by 2,568 votes.

4.79 per cent - Prince Edward-Hastings (Ontario) - Conservative Daryl Kramp defeated Liberal Bruce Knutson by 2,556 votes.

4.85 per cent - Brossard-La Prairie (Quebec) - Liberal incumbent Jacques Saada defeated BQ Marcel Lussier by 2,559 votes.

4.95 per cent - Brant (Ontario) - Liberal Lloyd St. Amand defeated Conservative Greg Martin by 2,663 votes.


No-comfort zone: 5 to 9.99 per cent

They may be wins, but not by what one might call "comfortable leads." A little bit of hard work, and some advertising money could go a long way in these ridings.

5 per cent - Toronto-Danforth (Ontario) - New Democrat Jack Layton defeated Liberal incumbent Dennis Mills by 2,395 votes.

5.09 per cent - Churchill (Manitoba) - New Democrat Bev Desjardins defeated Liberal Ron Evans by 1,008 votes.

5.12 per cent - Beauce (Quebec) - Liberal incumbent Claude Drouin defeated BQ Jean-Fran�ois Barbe by 2,424 votes.

5.22 per cent - Nipissing-Timiskaming (Ontario) - Liberal Anthony Rota defeated Conservative Al McDonald by 2,253 votes.

5.3 per cent - Brampton West (Ontario) - Liberal incumbent Colleen Beaumier defeated Conservative Tony Clement by 2,486 votes.

5.47 per cent - Vaudreuil-Soulanges (Quebec) - BQ Meili Faille defeated Liberal incumbent Nick Discepola by 3,062 votes.

5.61 per cent - Nepean-Carleton (Ontario) - Conservative Pierre Poilievre defeated Liberal incumbent David Pratt by 3,736 votes.

5.67 per cent - Simcoe North (Ontario) - Liberal incumbent Paul DeVillers defeated Conservative Peter Stock by 3,094 votes.

5.72 per cent - Honor�-Mercier (Quebec) - Liberal Pablo Rodriguez defeated BQ incumbent �ric St-Hilaire by 2,762 votes.

5.76 per cent - St. Catharines (Ontario) - Liberal incumbent Walt Lastewka defeated Conservative Leo Bonomi by 3,016 votes.

5.83 per cent - South Shore-St. Margaret's (Nova Scotia) - Conservative incumbent Gerald Keddy defeated Liberal John Chandler by 2,296 votes.

5.83 per cent - Dewdney-Alouette (B.C.) - Conservative Randy Kamp defeated New Democrat Mike Bocking by 2,797 votes.

5.87 per cent - South Surrey-White Rock-Cloverdale (B.C.) - Conservative Russ Hiebert defeated Liberal Judy Higginbotham by 3,149 votes.

6.32 per cent - Burlington (Ontario) - Liberal incumbent Paddy Torsney defeated Conservative Mike Wallace 4,043 votes.

6.34 per cent - Fleetwood-Port Kells (B.C.) - Conservative Nina Grewal defeated Liberal Gulzar Cheema by 2,484 votes, and second runner-up New Democrat Barry Bell by 3,076 votes (7.9 per cent).

6.59 per cent - Bonavista-Exploits (Newfoundland-Labrador) - Liberal Scott Simms defeated Conservative incumbent Rex Barnes by 2,184 votes.

6.76 per cent - Nanaimo-Alberni (B.C.) - Conservative James Lunney defeated NDP Scott Fraser by 4,006 votes.

6.88 per cent - Shefford (Quebec) - BQ Robert Vincent defeated Liberal incumbent Diane St-Jacques by 3,243 votes.

6.99 per cent - Kitchener-Conestoga (Ontario) - Liberal incumbent Lynn Myers defeated Conservative Frank Luellau by 2,916 votes.

7.31 per cent - Louis St-Laurent (Quebec) - BQ Bernard Cleary defeated Conservative Jos�e Verner by 3,281 votes.

7.51 per cent - Parry Sound-Muskoka (Ontario) - Liberal incumbent Andy Mitchell defeated Conservative Keith Montgomery by 3,301 votes.

7.52 per cent - Parkdale-High Park (Ontario) - Liberal Sam Bulte defeated New Democrat Peggy Nash by 3,526 votes.

7.52 per cent - Churchill River (Saskatchewan) - Conservative Jeremy Harrison defeated Liberal Al Ducharme by 1,464 votes.

7.67 per cent - London-Fanshawe (Ontario) - Liberal incumbent Pat O'Brien defeated New Democrat Irene Mathyssen by 3,153 votes.

7.69 per cent - Outremont (Quebec) - Liberal Jean Lapierre defeated BQ Fran�ois Rebello by 2,945 votes.

7.79 per cent - Saanich-Gulf Islands (B.C.) - Conservative Gary Lunn defeated Liberal David Mulroney by 4,968 votes.

7.94 per cent - Nickel Belt (Ontario) - Liberal incumbent Raymond Bonin defeated New Democrat Claude Gravelle by 3,208 votes.

7.98 per cent - Windsor-Tecumseh (Ontario) - NDP indumbent Joe Comartin defeated Liberal Rick Limoges by 3,818 votes.

8.01 per cent - Vancouver Centre (B.C.) - Liberal Hedy Fry defeated New Democrat Kennedy Stewart by 4,230 votes.

8.07 per cent - Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry (Ontario) - Conservative Guy Lauzon defeated Liberal Bob Kilger by 3,899 votes.

8.09 per cent - M�gantic-L'Erable (Quebec) - BQ Marc Boulianne defeated Liberal incumbent G�rard Binet by 3,486 votes.

8.46 per cent - Pontiac (Quebec) - Liberal David Smith defeated BQ L-Hubert Leduc by 3,673 votes.

8.55 per cent - Perth-Wellington (Ontario) - Conservative incumbent Gary Schellenberger defeated Liberal Brian Innes by 3,847 votes.

8.58 per cent - Tobique-Mactaquac (New Brunswick) - Liberal incumbent Andy Savoy defeated Conservative Mike Allen by 3,008 votes.

8.6 per cent - Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar (Saskatchewan) - Conservative Carol Skelton defeated New Democrat Dennis Gruending by 2,278 votes.

8.82 per cent - Richmond (B.C.) - Liberal Raymond Chan defeated Conservative Alice Wong by 3,747 votes.

8.98 per cent - Whitby-Oshawa (Ontario) - Liberal incumbent Judi Longfield defeated Conservative Ian MacNeil by 5,118 votes.

9 per cent - Ottawa South (Ontario) - Liberal David McGuinty defeated Conservative Alan Riddell by 5,334 votes.

9.08 per cent - Louis-Hebert (Quebec) - BQ Roger Clavet defeated Liberal incumbent H�l�ne Chalifour Scherrer by 5,072 votes.

9.21 per cent - Grey-Bruce-Owen Sound (Ontario) - Conservative Larry Miller defeated Liberal incumbent Ovid Jackson by 4,587 votes.

9.24 per cent - Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing (Ontario) - Liberal Brent St. Denis defeated NDP Carol Hughes by 3,224 votes.

9.38 per cent - Hull-Aylmer (Quebec) - Liberal incumbent Marcel Proulx defeated BQ Alain Charette by 4,509 votes.

9.48 per cent - Souris-Moose Mountain (Saskatchewan) - Conservative Ed Komarnicki defeated Independent Grant Devine by 2,907 votes.

9.61 per cent - Alfred-Pellan (Quebec) - BQ Robert Carrier defeated Liberal incumbent Carole-Marie Allard by 5,123 votes.

9.62 per cent - West Nova (Nova Scotia) - Liberal incumbent Robert Thibault defeated Conservative Jon Carey by 4,134.

9.65 per cent - Elgin-Middlesex-London (Ontario) - Conservative Joe Preston defeated Liberal incumbent Gary Knutson by 4,473 votes.

9.67 per cent - Saint John (New Brunswick) - Liberal Paul Zed defeated Conservative Bob McVicar by 3,513 votes.

9.67 per cent - Thunder Bay-Rainy River (Ontario) - Liberal Ken Boshcoff defeated New Democrat John Rafferty by 3,509 votes

9.7 per cent - York-Simcoe (Ontario) - Conservative Peter Van Loan defeated Liberal Kate Wilson by 4,580 votes.

9.72 per cent - Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock (Ontario) - Conservative Barry Devolin defeated Liberal incumbent John O'Reilly by 5,437 votes.

9.73 per cent - Dartmouth-Cole Harbour (Nova Scotia) - Liberal Michael Savage defeated New Democrat Susan MacAlpine Gillis by 3,962 votes.

9.98 per cent - Ottawa Centre (Ontario) - NDP Ed Broadbent defeated Liberal Richard Mahoney by 6,256 votes.

 


# # [an error occurred while processing this directive]
ELECTION RESULTSDetails>
1241035129
Total Elected and Leading
CON124036.27%
LIB103030.23%
BQ51010.48%
NDP29017.48%
IND10.52%
OTH005.02%

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