Voters go to the polls in four federal byelections Monday after tight races that seem likely to confirm the status quo but could produce upset victories for the Conservatives and New Democrats.
The Liberals don't appear to be a factor in any of the races and are expected to do no better than a distant third.
The Bloc Québécois is fighting to hold on to two Quebec ridings — Hochelaga in east-end Montreal and Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière du Loup in eastern Quebec.
The NDP has its sights set on Hochelaga, where Jean-Claude Rocheleau is giving the Bloc's Daniel Paille, a former Parti Québécois cabinet minister, a run for his money. The Liberals finished a distant second in the 2008 general election.
In Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Rivière du Loup, the Conservatives have pinned their hopes on Bernard Genereux, the former mayor of La Pocatière, who has provided stiff competition for the Bloc's Nancy Gagnon. The Tories finished 16 percentage points behind the Bloc in 2008.
The NDP is looking to hold onto the British Columbia riding of New Westminster-Coquitlam, where Fin Donnelly, a popular local councillor, is in a dog fight with Conservative candidate Diana Dilworth. The Tories held the riding until losing narrowly to the NDP in 2006 and again in 2008.
In Nova Scotia's Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley, the Conservatives are hoping to regain the riding held by Bill Casey, who ran as an independent in 2008 after being booted out of the Tory caucus in 2007 for publicly criticizing the budget.
With Casey no longer in the picture, Tory candidate Scott Armstrong is hoping most Casey supporters will return to the party fold. However, the NDP's Mark Austin has mounted a strong campaign, bolstered by the popularity of the recently elected NDP provincial government.
Anne McLellan, former Liberal cabinet minister and co-chair of the party's national election readiness team, acknowledged the Liberal goal in the byelections is modest — to improve on the meagre share of the vote they won in each riding in 2008.
"We're in the process of I think rebuilding our party, rebuilding the party finances, the party structure, the people around the leader in his office," she said. "There's no point, you know, in gilding the lily. We have work to do and we will do that work."
The Conservatives are trying to paint the contests as a rejection of Liberal leader Michael Iganatieff's leadership.
"If you're the official Opposition, I think you'd be expected to do well in byelections in the midst of a global economic downturn," Tory party spokesman Fred DeLorey said Sunday. "I think it says something about leadership."
NDP Leader Jack Layton said the chances of their candidate in B.C. have been boosted by the provincial government's unpopular move to harmonize the provincial sales tax with the federal GST.
With files from The Canadian Press
