Public support for Afghan mission lowest ever: poll
Last Updated: Friday, September 5, 2008 | 7:50 PM ET
CBC News
The number of Canadians who disapprove of the country's military action in Afghanistan is at its highest point since 2002, according to the results of a new poll sponsored by CBC News.
The survey, conducted by Environics between Friday and Tuesday, found that 34 per cent of respondents "strongly disapprove" of Canada's participation in military action in Afghanistan, while 22 per cent "somewhat disapprove," making a total of 56 per cent.
By comparison, 41 per cent of respondents were in favour of military action, with 14 per cent saying they "strongly approve" and 27 per cent "somewhat approve."
The latest figures stand in contrast to previous responses to the same survey question, posed in March 2008, where 54 per cent of respondents said they disapproved and 44 per cent said the opposite.
The March numbers had represented the highest level of disapproval since polling began in 2002, the same year Canada launched its military mission in Afghanistan.
"Overall, the level of disapproval of our involvement is at its highest point that we've seen in our tracking, and support is at its lowest," Donna Dasko, senior vice-president of Environics Research Group, told CBC News on Friday.
"So we can see the public is clearly, at this point, leaning against the mission."
A total of 2,505 people from across the country were surveyed by telephone for the latest Environics poll. It is considered accurate to within plus or minus two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Also down is the number of Canadians who think the Canadian mission in Afghanistan is likely to be successful.
Only 28 per cent of respondents said they think the Canadian mission in Afghanistan is likely to be successful, compared with 34 per cent who responded affirmatively during a November 2006 poll.
The current number of Canadians who said the mission wasn't likely to be successful was 65 per cent, compared with 58 per cent in the 2006 poll. In both instances, seven per cent of people said they did not know.
These findings, Dasko said, are important because they could affect people's overall level of support for Canada's military intervention in Afghanistan.
"Canadians, I think, can sustain a certain number of casualties and they can sustain that if they think that the mission is worth doing and if the mission is going to be successful," she said.
"And when we start to see pessimism about the success of the mission increasing, which we see here, that to me is what is behind the overall slow erosion of support for Canada being [in Afghanistan]."
When asked whether they approved of the agreement reached by the federal Conservative and Liberal parties in March 2008 to support keeping Canadian Forces in Afghanistan until 2011, the majority — 54 per cent — of Canadians said it was not a good agreement.
Poll results showed 41 per cent of respondents said it was a good agreement, while five per cent didn't know.
These responses are particularly important given the likelihood that Canadians will face a federal election this fall, Dasko said.
"By agreeing to keep the troops there, the Liberals have kept the issue off the table and actually eroded their own ability to build support by opposing the issue.
"It could have been a wedge issue for them, but it's not. So they removed it as a possible issue for them to use in an upcoming election."
Prime Minister Stephen Harper is expected to visit Gov. Gen. Michaëlle Jean at 9 a.m. ET on Sunday and ask her to dissolve his minority Conservative government.
Canadians would then go to the polls on Oct. 14.
Dasko said the lack of support for the agreement had fewer implications for the Conservatives, considering that 61 per cent of people who said they would vote Conservative in the next election approved of Canada being in Afghanistan.
By contrast, 65 per cent of those who said they would vote Liberal said they disapproved of the Afghan mission.
"Support is eroding but at the same time, [the Conservatives'] core supporters support Canada being there," Dasko said.
"So in fact, they're in sync with their own supporters who think that Canada should be there. So it doesn't hurt them that much."
When Canadians were asked which political parties could best handle a variety of heated issues in Canada, including Afghanistan, the choice was most often the Conservatives, as reported by CBC News on Thursday.
Those responding to the poll said they believe the Conservatives are best able to deal with the economy, provide honest government, deal with crime and justice, represent the interests of people’s home provinces in Ottawa and deal with Afghanistan.
By comparison they thought the Liberals could best deal with environmental issues like global warming and environmental pollution. The Liberals are also best suited to handle national unity issues, respondents said.
