B.C.'s transit plan faces funding shortfall
Last Updated: Monday, September 22, 2008 | 11:30 AM PT
CBC News
A CBC News analysis has revealed that TransLink isn't financially prepared to meet the province's goal of doubling public transit ridership by 2020.
The provincial target is a key part of B.C.'s plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but the public transportation authority's 10-year transportation and financial plan tells a different story.
CBC News calculations, using TransLink's current numbers, show it can only reach one-third of the province's goal.
TransLink CEO Tom Prendergast isn't sure the system can expand fast enough to meet its goals.
"I don't know if we can double the ridership by 2020," he said. "I'd have to look at the numbers, but there's a fixed amount of money that you have to spend, there is limits in terms of how fast you can add equipment and how fast you can grow the workforce."
Projected ridership increases don't add up
Doubling transit ridership by 2020 is an important part of the B.C. Climate Action Plan, the provincial roadmap to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 33 per cent from 2007 levels by 2020.
In Metro Vancouver, TransLink's ridership would have to grow by about five per cent each year in order to reach 550 million riders by 2020.
TransLink is projecting growth of only 2.3 per cent for the next four years.
After 2012, TransLink is projecting a deficit and plans to reduce service levels, slowing projected growth to just 1.5 per cent each year.
"One of the biggest issues we're faced with right now is the funding issue," Prendergast said. "If the province is saying their expectation of funding is going to be at that level, we either have to match that level or we have to change their view."
By 2020, CBC News calculated that the TransLink plan would fall short of the province's goal by about 180 million riders.
Ambitious transit plan short billions of dollars
The gap between TransLink's plan and the B.C. government goal is money.
TransLink is required by law to create a plan that is fully funded. However, the B.C. government's $14 billion proposal to double transit ridership is still short billions of dollars.
In January, B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell unveiled the planned transit upgrades, which include two new SkyTrain lines and improvements to existing lines; new RapidBus service in Metro Vancouver, Kelowna and Victoria; as well as 1,500 new clean-energy buses to be used throughout the province.
The plan requires $11.1 billion in new money from the province, the federal government, TransLink and municipalities.
So far, Ottawa has only contributed about two per cent of what has been requested. TransLink has committed approximately $1 billion of its $2.75 billion contribution.
And another $500 million is expected to come from municipalities outside the Lower Mainland, none of which has been committed so far.
You have to pay for public transit: TransLink CEO
B.C. Transportation Minister Kevin Falcon said the ambitious "Cadillac" transit plan won't come cheap, but would be worth the cost.
"If you do not set a goal, you'll never reach it. Can we fail? Of course we can fail. but for goodness sakes, if we care about climate change and we're serious about reducing greenhouse gases, let's set an ambitious target and do our very best to try and reach that," said Falcon.
TransLink has to find ways to generate revenue, such as investing in real estate near future SkyTrain stations, Falcon said.
"What we're saying to the region, to the two-million people that live in the area that's going to receive the most of the benefit from the transit plan, is you have to make a contribution … it's a question of figuring out how to pay," he said.
CEO Tom Prendergast is hopeful TransLink will be able to meet the province's expectations.
"At the end of the day, we need to get those four parties, the elected officials, the appointed officials, the public at large to come together and decide what is the appetite they have for the level of service they want to see," he said. "If you want public transit, you have to pay for it, no doubt about it."
Funding the issue
Meeting the province's goal will take transit investment beyond "business as usual," according to Gordon Price, director of the City Program at SFU and a former Vancouver city councillor and TransLink director.
"The target, we could probably pass it easily … If we're willing to pay for it and we make transit a practical choice," Price told CBC News.
"Funding's probably the number one issue," he said. "It's got to be secure. It's got to be sufficient, and it's got to be scheduled. In other words it's got to show up when you're planning."
Price said the federal government was "missing in action" on transit funding, despite one-time contributions Ottawa made to the CanadaLine rapid transit route and other projects.
"What we don't have is a secure form of funding that allows us to plan those 20-year time horizons that we really need. You can't do it on an ad-hoc, one-off basis," said Price.
A CBC analysis found TransLink does not have the resources to meet transit use targets set by B.C.'s government. (CBC)
