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Alberta voters don't often rock the boat.
They typically don't toy with minority governments, alternate between
the established parties or vote contrary to their federal preference.
But when they vote for change - as they've done three times in
the province's history - Albertans don't just rock the boat - they
sink it.
In this province, governments are loved for decades, then tossed
aside for some upstart newcomer, while the once ruling party essentially
disappears from the political landscape.
With 33 years under its belt, the current Progressive Conservative
government is the second-longest dynasty in the province's history.
Before Peter Lougheed became the premier in 1971, the party had
never won more than six seats in the legislature - it went from
six in 1967 to 49 in 1971.
"When Alberta moves, it really moves," University of
Lethbridge political scientist Peter McCormick said. "It's
usually quite astonishing."
As Premier Ralph Klein goes into his fourth election looking as
strong as ever, some wonder how long the monopoly can last.
The province has had only four governments since its birth almost
100 years ago. And when a government has been defeated, the victor
has never been the opposition.
The Liberals ran the province for the first 16 years, before being
tossed out by the United Farmers Alliance. The Liberals didn't win
more than 15 seats in the legislature for the next 80 years, and
has only recently become the official opposition.
The UFA, born from a lobby group, came into power with little idea
of how to govern, yet held on for 14 years. They were then blown
out by the new Social Credit Party, and never ran candidates again.
With a 36-year government, the Socreds' reign was the longest in
the province's history. They had no seats in the legislature the
year before they won, and after its first eight years in power began
shifting to the right. It was defeated by the six-seat Tories in
1971, elected four MLAs in the next two elections and haven't fielded
a full slate of candidates since.
It's hard to imagine that fate befalling the Tories, who won all
but nine seats in the legislature in the last elections.
Preston Manning, whose father Ernest led the Socreds for more than
20 years, says past Alberta governments have been toppled by a new
party with a big idea.
"No provincial government has ever been replaced by its traditional
opposition," Manning wrote in a column, going on to propose
that the new groundswell might come from the union of conservationist
and fiscally conservative forces.
Manning points out that the environment often runs second to health
care in polls trying to determine what Albertans are most concerned
about.
McCormick says Alberta's habit of electing political neophytes
doesn't necessarily make for good government.
The UFA, for example, formed the government in 1921 just two years
after becoming a political party, and didn't even have a leader
to assume the role of premier.
"It generates massive landslides, and the tiny opposition
can't compete," McCormick said of new political entities steamrolling
in. "Everyone in sight is a total amateur. It hurts because
they don't have legislative experience."
For the moment, Albertans are unlikely to have to worry about breaking
in a new government, observers say. The Tories, in power for more
than three decades, have the support of 50 per cent of decided voters
according to a recent poll. Which, albeit down from 70 per cent
a year ago, is still 28 per cent higher than the Liberals, 37 per
cent above the NDP and 40 per cent higher than the Alberta Alliance.
Klein's personal popularity sat at 65 per cent.
"At one level, Alberta politics are so dull, especially the
elections," McCormick said. "The Tory machine rumbles.
They run a nice solid campaign; they have a lot of practice and
a lot of money.
"And the opposition flails away on the outside."
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