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Alberta Votes 2004
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Alberta voters don't rock the boat, they sink it

Alberta voters don't often rock the boat.

They typically don't toy with minority governments, alternate between the established parties or vote contrary to their federal preference.

But when they vote for change - as they've done three times in the province's history - Albertans don't just rock the boat - they sink it.

In this province, governments are loved for decades, then tossed aside for some upstart newcomer, while the once ruling party essentially disappears from the political landscape.

With 33 years under its belt, the current Progressive Conservative government is the second-longest dynasty in the province's history. Before Peter Lougheed became the premier in 1971, the party had never won more than six seats in the legislature - it went from six in 1967 to 49 in 1971.

"When Alberta moves, it really moves," University of Lethbridge political scientist Peter McCormick said. "It's usually quite astonishing."

As Premier Ralph Klein goes into his fourth election looking as strong as ever, some wonder how long the monopoly can last.

The province has had only four governments since its birth almost 100 years ago. And when a government has been defeated, the victor has never been the opposition.

The Liberals ran the province for the first 16 years, before being tossed out by the United Farmers Alliance. The Liberals didn't win more than 15 seats in the legislature for the next 80 years, and has only recently become the official opposition.

The UFA, born from a lobby group, came into power with little idea of how to govern, yet held on for 14 years. They were then blown out by the new Social Credit Party, and never ran candidates again.

With a 36-year government, the Socreds' reign was the longest in the province's history. They had no seats in the legislature the year before they won, and after its first eight years in power began shifting to the right. It was defeated by the six-seat Tories in 1971, elected four MLAs in the next two elections and haven't fielded a full slate of candidates since.

It's hard to imagine that fate befalling the Tories, who won all but nine seats in the legislature in the last elections.

Preston Manning, whose father Ernest led the Socreds for more than 20 years, says past Alberta governments have been toppled by a new party with a big idea.

"No provincial government has ever been replaced by its traditional opposition," Manning wrote in a column, going on to propose that the new groundswell might come from the union of conservationist and fiscally conservative forces.

Manning points out that the environment often runs second to health care in polls trying to determine what Albertans are most concerned about.

McCormick says Alberta's habit of electing political neophytes doesn't necessarily make for good government.

The UFA, for example, formed the government in 1921 just two years after becoming a political party, and didn't even have a leader to assume the role of premier.

"It generates massive landslides, and the tiny opposition can't compete," McCormick said of new political entities steamrolling in. "Everyone in sight is a total amateur. It hurts because they don't have legislative experience."

For the moment, Albertans are unlikely to have to worry about breaking in a new government, observers say. The Tories, in power for more than three decades, have the support of 50 per cent of decided voters according to a recent poll. Which, albeit down from 70 per cent a year ago, is still 28 per cent higher than the Liberals, 37 per cent above the NDP and 40 per cent higher than the Alberta Alliance.

Klein's personal popularity sat at 65 per cent.

"At one level, Alberta politics are so dull, especially the elections," McCormick said. "The Tory machine rumbles. They run a nice solid campaign; they have a lot of practice and a lot of money.

"And the opposition flails away on the outside."


 

 


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