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With a declaration that this is his last election, Ralph Klein
has set the stage for a farewell tour playing all his greatest hits.
"It's the last hurrah. The last chance to see [Klein] campaign.
The last chance to thank [Klein] for what he's done for the province,"
University of Lethbridge political scientist Peter McCormick said.
"The farewell tour."
Top of the charts, and likely to get as much air time as any top
40 tune, will be that the province is now debt free. And stemming
from that, what the province should do with all that money.
"That is the core of his legacy," University of Alberta
political science professor Steve Patten said. "It isn't a
legacy full of creative policy development. It's a legacy driven
by a single-minded obsession with the debt."
But McCormick points out that the "debt is so obvious you
can't spend a lot of time on it." And Patten adds that particular
plank may be a bit wobbly.
When Klein became leader of the Progressive Conservatives in 1992,
the province's debt was at $22 billion. Twelve and a half years
later, Klein and his finance minister announced that it was gone
- or, more accurately, that the money had been put aside to cover
the remaining payments.
But critics point out that surpluses from resource revenues alone
over the same period have more than paid off the debt.
"It puts him in a situation where the critics will say, 'But
that was easy,'" Patten said.
McCormick says although the criticism may be valid, it's worth
pointing out that the two Conservative premiers before Klein were
the ones who ran up the debt.
"You can throw away a headstart, and Klein was smart enough
[not] to," he said.
The province's surpluses - estimated to be at least $3 billion
this year - will allow Klein to make any number of funding provinces
during the election. But McCormick says historically that's meant
a lot of one-time money, which doesn't help hospitals and schools
do any long-term planning.
"I think what you're going to hear from the Tories is talk
about re-investing, but it's going to be vague talk, covered by
the It's Your Future survey," Patten said.
McCormick thinks Klein will also once again tout his pride in the
"Alberta Advantage" during the campaign.
That advantage, as the Tories have tagged it, hinges on a lower
income tax rate and the absence of sales tax. But Patten points
out that the user fees Alberta residents pay - such as health-care
premiums - are taxes by different names.
And some of the costs of living in Alberta - from the price of
energy to auto insurance to health-care premiums - have raised the
hackles of voters over the past year. His government has already
promised to drop the premiums for seniors.
The third boast Klein will want to be remembered for is standing
up to the federal government, McCormick says.
Coincidentally, Klein kicked off the campaign the same day he left
for a First Ministers meeting in Ottawa to talk about equalization
payments and how much each province contributes.
A month before the campaign, he stood up to an imaginary threat
that the federal government had its eyes on Alberta's wealth, promising
to keep Ottawa from the treasury.
Over his career, he's frequently opposed the feds, on issues ranging
from the Kyoto accord to the Canadian Wheat Board to whether to
go to war in Iraq.
"Klein really doesn't like the feds," McCormick said.
"It's important for him to emphasize that."
Some would argue Klein's not fond of anyone at the federal level
- he was accused of sabotaging the federal Conservative party during
the federal campaign by promising radical health care changes, which
he later backed away from.
And it's the issue of health care that both McCormick and Patten
say Klein has always threatened to make his legacy - and never delivered
on.
"At times he's appeared to have other things he wanted to
work into his legacy, like a dramatic reform to health care,"
Patten said. "But he's backed off each and every time."
When announcing his "reforms" in June - which amounted
to $700 million in additional funding - Klein said he'd wanted to
set up two private hip replacement clinics, but his caucus had over-ruled
him.
Patten says there may come a time before Klein leaves office when
he questions whether eliminating the debt is enough of a legacy.
"I wouldn't be surprised if he starts to wonder himself whether
it's enough, and once again want to be the premier who restructures
the health system," he said.
As for Klein, on the eve of the election he said the party's main
priorities will be health care, education and infrastructure. Not
surprisingly, the main points made on the It's Your Future survey
the government used to ask Albertans how they wanted the surplus
spent.
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