Analysis & Commentary

Who's in charge after Nov. 22? This election is all about Premier Klein. The media is completely preoccupied with him and his conduct. Is he still interested in his work? Does he still have the proverbial fire-in-the-belly? How long will he stay after the election? How could be make such a serious mistake on the AISH program? Why won’t he tell us about his policies for health and education? Why won’t he talk about anything? Premier Klein is casually walking his way through this 28-day campaign. He is saying nothing about the tasks his government will face after the election. Which leads to the question of whether he will be more engaged in government plans and decisions after the election, or less? He has never been one to care about details or to make difficult decisions. In the last few years, he has rarely appeared to be interested in too much about government at all. He is good at politics, but not so good at policy. If Premier Klein doesn’t hold a firm hand over the next Conservative government, who will? Someone has to be in charge. In the last term, the premier’s chief of staff Peter Elzinga and Finance Minister Pat Nelson were in control of the day-to-day activities. One controlled the administration and the other controlled the Treasury. Both will be gone after the election. Who replaces them? Steve West has been chief of staff since Elzinga departed in April. Premier Klein promised that West would bring a brass-knuckles approach to his would-be successors and to the government’s critics. Anticipation was high that West would sweep in with his tough hand and small-government-is-best approach. Nothing happened. There was no cabinet shuffle, no restructuring, no change in direction. The Conservatives coasted into the election by doing the usual: spending money to appease voters. Nobody expects that West will be kept down much longer. What happens after the election will depend partly on whether the right wing Alberta Alliance makes an impact in the election. If the Alliance gets a seat or two and attracts more than 15 per cent of the vote, the Conservatives will govern to the right to try to head off the right-wing threat to its Calgary/rural coalition before it has a chance to grow. If the Liberals make significant gains, the Conservatives will have fewer MLAs to make happy. As chief of staff, West will have a huge influence in the size of cabinet and the people who will sit there. Premier Klein will do very little without West’s approval. Expect a smaller cabinet - a drop to about 20 from the current 24 is the current talk - and another restructured bureaucracy. It was restructured and reduced after the 1993 election, restructured and expanded after the 2001 election, and it will be restructured and reduced after this election. Finance is the fiscal muscle. With a leadership race coming, the odds are high that none of the likely candidates will be given the chance to make a reputation in finance. Scratch Gary Mar, David Hancock and Mark Norris. A good bet is Greg Melchin, the accountant from Calgary who served as revenue minister in the last term. He’s tough, smart, quiet, from Calgary – and not a leadership threat. Speculating on a cabinet beyond the finance minister is a pointless exercise. There are far too many permutations and combinations to consider – to say nothing about the countless rumors purported to come from people who know. If the rumors don’t come from the premier or from West, consider them to be only of entertainment value. The only certainty is that all governments get their direction and tone from the people at the top. It’s a good bet that West and Melchin will be the people.   The CBC does not endorse and is not responsible for the content of external sites. External links will open in a new window.